Thursday, 15 March 2018

3 pts win SHATTERED LOVE 11/2 ( 3 firms and all exchanges)
JLT Novices Chase

This front-running mare has taken well to fences and should fare a lot better than when fancied for the Neptune here last year. The combination of this testing ground and mid-range trip should be absolutely ideal - she is versatile enough to have won over the minimum and was not stopping when successful over 3m last time. Her level of form is already good enough for her to play a big role in this, and taking into account that her ceiling will be higher still, she looks sure to give an excellent account of herself.

Won + 16.5 pts

1.5 pts win THOMAS CAMPBELL 25/1 ( at least ten firms)
1.5 pts win SYKES  39/1 (Betfair Exchange)
Pertemps Final

At first instance, Thomas Campbell appears to have it all to do off top weight in this ground but there are reasons to make him one to consider.  In the Martin Pipe here last year, then again in the 2m 4f H'cap at the big Aintree meeting, he never quite got the rub of the green and left the impression that this sort of trip would suit him better in these sort of events. He began the season winning twice over 3m at this venue, on the second occasion in soft ground. Since then he has been twice unplaced in the Long Walk and Cleeve. He returns to handicap company 7lb higher in the ratings than his last victory here and has the blinds thrown on too. Far better chance than his price indicates.

Sykes has shown improved form since returning from Philip Hobbs yard to the set up that had him in his pt to pt days. He was 33/1 when caught in the closing stages here back in December and had a few behind who reoppose today. He ran another excellent race in a similar event at Warwick last time and off a 3lb higher mark appeals as the type to outrun his odds. Not out of it.

Lost - 3 pts

3 pts win SAM SPINNER  100/30 ( at least seven firms)
Stayers Hurdle

A tremendously likeable individual who races with great enthusiasm and whose performance in the Long Walk stamps him as the best around in this division. Has not run at this venue before but handles all sorts of tracks, the undulations at Chepstow, sharp aspects such as the hurdle track at Haydock, and there is nothing in this configuration for him to fear. The Haydock win confirms that extreme testing underfoot conditions are no problem for him and there can be no excuses if he fails to deliver again today.

Lost - 3 pts

2pts win SQUOUATOUR 6/1 ( at least eight firms)
1 pt win THE YOUNG MASTER  20/1 (Betfair Ex)
Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir

Squoatour has clearly been laid out for this and can be more fortunate this time than last year when he unseated his rider three out when getting involved in the race. He ran a blinder in a very valuable handicap at Leopardstown over Christmas to finish third, a run which split two unplaced efforts over trips on the short side of ideal for him. Has won twice in the mud, has one of the best amateurs aboard, and has claims that are impossible to ignore.

The Young Master on the face of it has dropped to a level some way off that he was at a couple of seasons back.  That however is taken into account in that he is in the region of a stone lower in the ratings than when at his peak and considering this is his first run after a wind op, he warrants a second look. Today's rider was aboard when he won the old Whitbread and while his best chase form is on better ground he did win twice in heavy over hurdles

Lost - 3 pts