Tuesday, 27 December 2016

2 pts win CAROLE'S DESTRIER 8/1 ( at least 6 firms)
1 pt win BEG TO DIFFER 45/1 ( Betfair Ex)
Welsh National

The gap in odds between the Hennessy first and second does Carole's Destrier a disservice here. Even allowing for the fact that Native River was idling a little infront, only half a length separated them and while Native River fully sees out this sort of trip it may ideally suit the runner up better. There's no knowing who's come out the race better but the Mulholland horse appeals as the value call.

With the like of Firebird Flyer and Bishops's Road needing a mud bath to produce their optimum, lesser than the usual number make any appeal.However Beg to Differ remains an interesting sort. He was going OK when unseating his rider after clipping heals in the big 3m 1f handicap at the festival, a race he was quietly fancied for. He's not done anything in his two races this term and is weak on the exchanges at the moment but appeals to small stakes.

Lost - 3 pts

Monday, 26 December 2016

3 pts win DEFINITLY RED 5/1 ( at least 12 firms)
Rowland Meyrick

On weights and measures this one should not be reversing the course and distance form with Blaklion from February but in different circumstances today, with the Twiston-Davies horse arriving here after hard race in the Hennessey, the Definitly Red may be the one to beat.Both have improved since that day with Blaklion going on to take the Sun Alliance while Definitly Red's career is on a marked upward curve. After a winning reappearance over hurdles,  he was shorter than he was entitled to be in the Rehearsal last time but still ran a career best race to finish third with the promise of plenty more to come. Hard to see him not being involved here.

Won + 15 pts

Saturday, 17 December 2016

1.5 pts win CONSUL DE THAIX 9/1 ( at least 5 firms inc Bet 365, Victor and Sky Bet))
1.5 pts win MODUS 9/1 ( 3 firms inc Bet 365 and Stan James)
Wessex Youth Trust H'cap Hdle

Could be worth splitting stakes on these two who hold major chances.

Consul De Thaix ran a mighty eye catching race when runner up to stable companion Brain Power last time and should turn around that form here. There is clearly significant potential in this one and his ceiling over timber is going to be a great deal higher than his present 135 rating.

Modus has run two cracking races on both starts this season. Problem is he's up a further 5 lb in the ratings from last time but a repeat of that form could still be good enough to get him home today. Must be kept on board.

Lost  - 3 pts

Saturday, 3 December 2016

1.5 pts win UCELLO CONTI 11/1 ( at least 16 firms)
1.5 pts win SIZING COAL 18/1 ( Betfair Ex)
Becher Chase

Ucello Conti's only run five times since arriving from France but has shown that he has all the ingredients to be a winner of this event. He ran an absolute cracker when finding just one to good for him in the valuable 28 runner Paddy Power Chase last Christmas and later jumped around here to finish sixth in the Grand National. He's had a sharpener over hurdles and is hard to get away from here.

It's a long time past since Jim Dreaper's heyday in the 1970's but the yard still produces the odd decent one and Sizing Coal, who was third in the Irish National two seasons ago, arrives here in good heart after winning on his seasonal debut at Sligo. It would not be a surprise to see him run a big race here.

Lost - 3pts

3 pts win LE MERCUREY 11/2 ( at least 7 firms)
Lotto Chase

This one looked the part when wearing the blinds for the first time at Ayr in the Spring when running out a convincing winner from the very useful Bristo De Mae. A repeat of that level of form may just be good enough for him to win here. He was far from disgraced on his comeback race at Down Royal and it's worth noting that all his three successes in this country have all come in small fields. There is just a slight doubt as to whether he is as good at this trip as he is over shorter but all in all, he's appealing around the 11/2 mark.

Lost - 3 pts