Saturday, 26 November 2016

3 pts win WHO DARES WINS  5/1 ( at least 9 firms)
Gerry Fielden Hdle

This one is a massively interesting runner here. He started at only 10/1 for last season'e Triumph but ran too bad to be true and finished well beaten. He ran a cracker on his hurdles comeback at Chepstow, even allowing for the fact that he would have been straight in condition after running on the level. He only got as far as the second flight last time but there is no reason why things should not fall right for him today and off only a 1 lb higher than the Chepstow run is sure to give an excellent account of himself.

Won + 15 pts

3 pts win UN TEMPS POUR TOUT 10/1 ( at least 8 firms)
Hennessy Gold Cup

One of the most appealing events in the sport for anticipation and buzz and this is certainly an up to standard renewal .There are three runners in today's field that you could envisage progressing enough to turn into serious  Cheltenham Gold Cup contenders, Un Temps Pour Tout, Blaklion and Native River.

Un Temps Pour Tout is  2-0 down in his two encounters with Native River over fences - including one at this meeting last November. However, when both on song the Pipe horse travels like the sort of animal that wins this event with Native River often having to be driven at a relatively early stage. If he is turned out in the same heart as when winning the 3m 1f handicap at the festival then he appeals as the most likely winner of this. He's 10 lb in the ratings than that day but he had plenty in hand and there could be plenty more to come.

Lost - 3 pts

Saturday, 19 November 2016

1.5 pts win CAID DU BERLAIS 10/1 ( at least 11 firms)
1.5 pts win POINT THE WAY 12/1 ( at least 4 firms inc Bet365, Victor and PPower)
Betfair Exchange Fixed Brush Hdle

Always a fascinating  event that has thrown up some excellent animals.

Caid Du Berlais has sort of being going in reverse, a former very useful handicap hurdle who then won the Paddy Power Gold Cup when transferred to fences he was off the track for 18 months prior to returning this Autumn. On the second and most recent of those outing he won a Pertempts qualifier at Aintree in visually pleasing style and though he's off an 8 lb higher mark he goes well in testing conditions and is a must for the short list.

Point the Way has raced twice on heavy ground under rules and won both times. He shaped well last time on his reappearance at Sedgefield ( albeit in a much weaker race than this) and is hard to put a gage on as on his stiffest task to date at Sandown in March he dropped out too quickly for it to be his true running. Encouragingly,  yard is going through a mini hot streak, winning with three of it's last four runners and he is one to consider.

Lost - 3 pts

3 pts win SILVINIACO CONTI 8/1 ( at least 4 firms inc Bet 365,PPower and Hills)
Betfair Chase

Stands out as the value call . Twice a former winner of this he 's only had four outings since starting at 5/4 when runner up to Cue Card in this last season. On his reappearance he ran an OK race in Ireland though strictly on the form it is understandable for people to believe he is  now on the downgrade - however, it was only three outings back and nine months ago when he looked as good as ever when destroying Dynaste at Ascot. All in all, there are unknowns surrounding this event with the fitness level of Coneygree and general well being of Cue Card, but here is one who will be spot on, fully proven and reliable, and sure to acquit himself well.

Lost - 3 pts

Sunday, 13 November 2016

3 pts win SIMPLY NED 12/1( almost all firms)
Schloer Chase

This likeable sort has never won outside of the north but is a quality sort whose overall form puts him in with a big shout here - his price does not do his chance justice. He's been beaten on all three runs at Cheltenham but one was in a Champion Chase, another was in this last year when fourth to Sprinter Sacre, but he also ran a superb race in this two years ago when runner up to Uxizandre on similar ground to todays. He looked in great heart on his seasonal debut when narrowly failing to give almost two stone away to an in form rival and should give a good account of himself today.

Lost - 3 pts

2pts win MODUS 7/1 ( at least 11 firms)
1 pt win JOHN CONSTABLE 25/1 ( at least 4 firms inc Hills and Victor)
Greatwood Hurdle

These two finished behind the gritty Sternrubin at Ascot last time - it's not the first time they've all met. Modus's stance had took a bit of knock after an initially promising novice hurdle season finished up quietly. And he ran a race full of promise, perhaps being too given a little too much to do but finished best of all to finish a close third. It's easy to read too much into those eye catching runs but it was an excellent run on the book as well as form wise and at the odds he appeals more than the favourite in the same ownership whose priced up on a fair degree of hype.

John Constable is now becoming disappointing and has been given too many chances. He's allowed another one today as he's an irresistible price allied to the good form of the stable. The ability is there and proven, and indeed there looked a lot more to come from him but they don't seem to have found the key to him.

Lost - 3 pts

Saturday, 12 November 2016

2 pts win SAUSALOTO SUNRISE 10/1 ( at least 11 firms)
1 pt win ALVARADO  20/1 ( at least 9 firms)
Betvictor H'cap Chase

This race is never been the easiest puzzle to solve and this is a well up to standard renewal and there is plenty to like about two previous winners.

Sausalito Sunrise is a stone higher in the ratings than when winning last year and strictly on weights and measures, Upswing, Cogry, and Shotgun Paddy, should all reverse the form. That however does not tell the full story - he was on the upgrade fast 12 months ago and ended the season when running a cracker to be third in the old Whitbread off a similar mark to todays. There could be further progression left and he is capable of defying top weight.

Alvarado races off a 6 lb higher rating than when winning this race three years back - he's not getting any younger either. Nevertheless, he rounded off last season when narrowly failing to win the Scottish National and his stable is in great form at the moment. He does admittedly hit a flat spot and give himself a bit to do nowadays but these marathon event are full of quirky types and if the cards fall right he is capable of going very close.

Lost - 3pts

2 pts win FRODON 8/1 ( Generally available)
1 pt win BOUVREIUL 14/1 ( at least 8 firms)
Betvictor Gold Cup

Frodon is the real unknown here and some imagination is required to assess his chance as he does not have the profile of a winner of this. He's only had three runs over fences - though did run over them at Auteuil on his final run in France - and beat nothing of real note on his first two runs over fences here. However, on his most recent run at Wincanton when he finished alone, he had the very useful Shantou Village beat when that rival came down. Though he is likely to reach his ceiling at a very young age for a chaser he is already very foot-sure, arrives here is fantastic heart and appeals as the most likely winner.

Bouvreiul has himself only had five runs over fences but his run here when narrowly failing to win the 2m 4f  novice handicap at the Festival make him very much one to consider. While trends are back-fitted and are general bucked in time, most past winners of this event have run well here in the past in a competitive handicap and it is difficult to see him not running a big race today.

Lost - 3pts