Thursday, 28 July 2016

3 pts win CELESTIAL PATH 14/1 (Betfair Ex)
Golden Mile

On weights and measures Franklin D is the proverbial handicap blot under his 3 lb penalty for his Newmarket performance but at around 3/1, too many things can go wrong. Last year's 2,000 Guineas fifth Celestial Path appeals more at respective prices. It was not until his last outing that he ventured into handicap company, running a fine race and only caught close home by a useful yardstick. On paper this is more competitive but he races off the same rating here and his yard is in cracking form at the moment.

Lost - 3pts

3pts win KIMBERELLA 12/1 ( at least 6 firms inc Coral,Tote, Betfred,Bet 365)
Stewards Cup

Maybe worth playing in this event now. This one has had a hell of a lot of racing and is not one you'd at first think there could be a run on in the market but he created a really favourable impression when winning at York last weekend, looking in terrific heart and very much one with a great chance of following up under a penalty.

Lost - 3pts

Wednesday, 27 July 2016

3pts win HIGH SHIELDS 8/1 ( at least 4 firms inc Hills and Coral)
Matchbook Exchange H'cap

This is still always an interesting handicap, even though the aura is not there from the days it was known as the 'Extel'.
High Shields looks a very likely winner of this. He had his first run in a handicap last time. That was over 12f and on the back of winning his maiden over this course and distance. He acquitted himself really well, finishing fourth ,only three lengths off the winner, with the three ahead of him all arriving in the race with plenty of recent winning form. It was probably an even better race than it looked on the day and the form should work out well. The step back down in trip looks ideal for High Shields here and he is hard to get away from.

Lost - 3pts

3 pts win SHEIKHZAYEDROAD 14/1 (at least 8 firms)
Goodwood Cup

Definitely worth a go at double figure odds. He has bags of talent but is a difficult ride and has a tendency to hang badly. Nevertheless, he has a better than one in four career strike rate and his third in the Ascot Gold Cup indicates that he is worth serious consideration for this type of event. He did run in this event last year, staying on well to finish sixth beaten only four lengths and is going to need the rub of the green as he will be held up again. However, there looks to be plenty of pace on here and that will be a real positive for this one.

Lost - 3pts

Tuesday, 26 July 2016

3 pts win QATARI HUNTER  15/2 ( at least 6 firms)
Beringice Gordon Stakes

This one steps up from handicap company but is progressing at a fast rate and is a mighty interesting runner -indeed an eyecatching rare contender for the Bolger yard at this venue. He's on a five timer here and shapes as though the step up to a mile and a half will be ideal. He possesses a  good turn of foot, and at the odds available, he is preferable to the two dropping down from Group 1 company, one still an unknown with a question mark over him, and the other who is becoming very hard to win with.

Lost - 3pts

Monday, 25 July 2016

1.5 pts win GANG WARFARE  14/1 (at least 13 firms)
1.5 pts win ARCH VILLAIN  20/1 ( at leat 7 firms)
Matchbook Exchange Summer Stakes

Absolutely wide open and as is typical on this track you'll need the rub of the green more than at most other venues.

Gang Warfare ran up a sequence on the AW before arriving well fancied for the Chester Cup. Not a lot went his way and he ran respectably enough to finish ninth. He was then put back to the AW for the new look Pitmans Derby and was never able to get in a blow. You get the feeling that there is another upturn around the corner in his career and he could surprise here.

Arch Villain is another who has been very successful late on the AW. He too ran in the Pitmans last time out where he only beat two home. He has however won around here and the yard strive to have one or two that will run well at this meeting. Should outrun his odds.

Lost - 3pts

Saturday, 23 July 2016

2 pts win FOLKSWOOD  6/1 ( almost all firms)
1 pt win OH THIS IS US 25/1 ( at least 8 firms)
Woodford Reserve H'cap

Folkswood acquitted himself credibly when eighth in the fiercely competitive Britannia at the Royal meeting here when well supported in the market beforehand. He runs off the same mark today but despite this also being a competitive race, he faces an easier task than last time off the same mark and he is of course open to plenty of further improvement. The stable is absolutely flying at the moment and it will be a surprise if he doesn't figure.

Oh This Is Us's  winning streak came to an end in the aforementioned Britannia where he finished well beaten. That was however the first time he had encountered soft ground so it may be premature to think the handicapper has hold of him. Back on faster ground, he has a good turn of foot and is not one to discount.

Lost - 3pts

2pts win HEAVEN'S GUEST 10/1 ( almost all firms)
1 pt win KING'S PAVILION 33/1 ( at least 7 firms)
Gigaset International Stakes

The fact that Heaven's Guest is fully exposed is no justifiable reason to pass him over here and he is a safer option than trying to find some non existent plot horse or potential Group horse. He won this event last year off just a 1 lb lower mark than today's after being fourth in the race the previous year and it's not as if we are hoping the race will conjure up a return to his best - he is absolutely bang in form after narrowly failing to win the Bunbury cup two weeks back. A very obvious contender but fairly priced and worth support.

Mark Johnston has won this event three times in the past eight years. King's Pavilion is the preferred one from his two runners - he is another who ran down the field in the Britannia.He then ran a fine race in a competitive Sandown handicap before never being able to get into his race at York the other week. Though he appears ideally suited by some ease in the ground his run four races back, also at Sandown, was on a fast surface and as good as anything he has produced.

Lost - 3 pts

Saturday, 16 July 2016

2 pts win MOABIT 11/2 (at least 7 firms)
1 pt win CURIOUS CARLOS 14/1 ( SkyBey, Stand James and Betfair Ex)
Summer H'cap Hurdle

This is a cracking event by the standards of Summer jumping fare and it is impossible to put a line through Moabit who arrives here in terrific heart and it is impossible at this time to guess what level his eventual ceiling will be. He is 10 lb higher in the ratings than when he last ran in a handicap two outings ago but has been treating his rivals with contempt and looks sure to figure in a big way.

Curious Carlos never got the rub of things last time but retains an overall progressive profile and from a yard that commands respect in the Summer jumping sphere, particularly at this venue. The booking of Richard Johnson catches the eye and he is hard to resist at double figure odds.

Lost - 3 pts

Saturday, 9 July 2016

2 pts win TAWDEEA 9/1 (Betfair Ex)
1 pt win EARTH DRUMMER  23/1 (Betfair Ex)
John Smith's Cup

First impressions are that Tawdeea has some obstacles to overcome to defy his penalty. He had to be driven to make up the leeway on soft ground, off a fast pace and over a longer trip at Haydock last week. Today, he's faced with a shorter trip, quicker ground, and a course where the leaders are harder to peg back than at most over venues. However, the overall impression he gave was that he passed the line with plenty in hand and is an animal still very much on the up. It's also worth remembering that when he lost his maiden tag only eight weeks ago, that was over one mile. On weights and measures he's good enough to win here and the negatives may not even come into play.

Earth Drummer is a rare example of a horse being improved upon after moving from O'Meara ( though he is housed at O'Meara's old yard so has remained put) His fifth place finish in the Victoria Cup was arguably a lifetime best, and this was followed by a credible tenth in the Royal Hunt Cup. He's versatile regarding trip, has for a while looked the type to bag a decent race and should acquit himself well at big odds.

Lost - 3pts

2 pts win MAGICAL MEMORY  6/1 ( at least 18 firms)
1 pt win SUEDOIS 29/1 (Betfair Ex)
July Cup

Magical Memory has only finished ahead of Twilight Son once in their encounters but today he has his optimum conditions. He traveled beautifully on this July Course when winning a handicap at this meeting last year on similarly fast ground to today's and again showed that he is at home on tracks with rises and dips with a commanding performance in the Stewards Cup.He was only half a length behind Twilight Son at Ascot last time in conditions that ideally suited Candy's charge and will take all the beating today.

Suedois was inches behind Magical Memory at Ascot and had previously been runner up to that rival in the Duke of York. This will be only his fourth run for O'Meara but he is already promising to win a big prize and although he has never encountered ground as fast as today's , his odds grossly underestimate his chance.

Lost - 3pts

Saturday, 2 July 2016

2 pts win TAWDEEA  9/1 ( at least 13 firms)
1 pt win WATERSMEET 20/1 ( at least 6 firms)
Old Newton Cup

Making just his ninth career start today, it's very likely that there is plenty more left for the O'Meara yard to get out of Tawdeea who ran a quality sort close over this C&D last time with a useful yardstick six lengths back in third, That was his first attempt at this trip and it looks as if it will be his optimum. He's won on today's surface in the past and there is every reason to believe that he'll run a big race today.

Watersmeet is weighed to reverse last years running in this with stable companion Notarised. They finished first and second and have both been typically in and out since. However, while runners from this yard often bounce back after poor efforts,Watersmeet  ran consistently well for a period of four months last year and arrives here on the back of a good effort. The market( which has more emphasis as a guide to this yard than many would believe) also indicates that he is the main hope of the three.

Tawdeea Won  + 17 pts