Saturday, 26 April 2014

2pts win GODSMEJUDGE 12/1 (Generally available) Bet 365 Gold Cup
1pt win HOUBLON DES OBEAUX 25/1 ( 6 firms including Ladbrokes and Hills) Bet 365 Gold Cup

Godsmejudge runs off the same rating as when returning to his very best last time when he went close to taking his second Scottish National. He still has only 11 runs under his belt and there could yet be some improvement to be squeezed out of him. If the Ayr run has not left his mark then he'll put in a bold show today. It's also encouraging that his yard remain in fair form.

Venetia William's yard is not in the best of form at present but Houblon Des Obeaux is of interest here and is worth a go at the odds available. He's been highly tried for most of the season in races such as the Hennessy ( respectable staying on sixth), Gold Cup, and Aintree Bowl. He won at Ascot in December off a 6lb lower mark, and ran a good race at the same venue off today's mark. The way he shaped in the Hennessy gives promise that today's trip will be ideal and he has a a realistic chance of defying top weight.

Lost - 3pts

Monday, 21 April 2014

2pts win GOLDEN WONDER 27/1 (Betfair) Boylesports Irish Grand National
1pt win HEANEY 34/1 (Betfair) Boylesports Irish Grand National

All sorts of possibilities here but with many proven only on soft or heavy ground, it's probably best to angle in by concentrating on those who are capable, or look capable of producing their optimum on today's ground.

A couple have been clipped with Tammy's Hill coming out of the race but Golden Wonder and Heaney still catch the eye at lunchtime odds. Golden Wonder was put away after November evidently for a Spring/Summer campaign and he shaped well here on his reappearance two weeks ago. With only four steeplechase races under his belt  under rules, there is still an awful lot to learn about him but he is in the right sort of yard and this race is no doubt part of a laid out plan for him.

Heaney has been off the track since December when he ran well for a long way in a very valuable Leopardstown handicap that had a few of today's runners in the field. He'd previously finished a staying on fifth to Double Seven in the Munster National and appeals as the type who will have no difficulty getting this sort of trip on today's ground.

Lost - 3pts

Saturday, 19 April 2014

2pts win BINCOMBE 7/1 (Generally available) Totescoop 6 Millionairemaker H'cap Chase
1pt win LOST LEGEND 16/1 (4 firms and exchanges) Totescoop6 Millionairemaker H'cap Chase

At a time of the year when some of the big yards are tailing off the Hobbs yard had two winners at the midweek Cheltenham meeting and the progressive Bincombe is the one they all have to beat here. He won well here last time, should have no difficulty being fully effective over the two furlong longer trip , and can defy his rise in the ratings in a race where many have threadbare credentials.

Lost Legend needs the word 'Good' in the going description to produce his optimum and has strong claims off a 7lb higher rating than his Kempton success last month when he appealed as one who had further improvement in him. His yard has had plenty of success in the past with chasers that make notable progression after intially looking to have leveled out at gaff level early in their chasing  careers and it will be interesting to see how he progresses.

Lost - 3pts

Saturday, 12 April 2014

2pts win MONTBAZEN 13/2 ( 6 firms including Coral and Hills)  QTS Scottish Champion Hdle
1pt win FLAXEN FLARE QTS 12/1 (Generally available) Scottish Champion Hdle

My Tent Or Yours is beatable giving weight away here and the alternatives that interest most are two that ran well in the County Hurdle. The form of that event has already received massive boosts by the runs of La Fontana and Diakali at Aintree and the 3rd and 5th from the race, Montbazen and Flaxen Flare have big claims to today's prize.

Monbazon was absent from the track for two years prior to his Betfair Hurdle re-appearance but the Cheltenham run confirms that he has retained all of his ability. And at a time when some of the yards are drifting out of form it was encouraging that Alan King had a winner here yesterday.

Gordon Elliot's single runner here yesterday was runner up and Flaxen Flare cannot be crossed out in this. He is 14435 in his hurdle runs when sent to the UK, all in competitive affairs, he's a pull in the weights with Montbazon, and he looks pretty sure to be thereabouts.

Lost - 3pts

2pts win MENDIP EXPRESS 15.5/1 (Betfair) Coral Scottish Grand National
1pt win MISTER MARKER 29/1 (Betfair and Betdaq) Coral Scottish Grand National

Absolutely wide open and almost all the runners have some sort of claim here.

Mendip Express is still something of an unknown sort under rules but looked a quality sort when wining three novice chases on the bounce earlier in the season, which came after winning 7 from 9 point to points. He bbv'd when pulled up when favourite against Smad Place and Sam Winner at Newbury in February and appears for the first time since. If he's back to his best today then he looks the most likely winner of this.

Mister Marker ran a cracker when 3rd in this race last year.He is 2lb higher in the ratings this year but has proven himself as good as ever this Spring and is most unlikely to be over the top. While there may not be no real reason to expect him to improve on last years run, the fact is that at this time of year more than the usual number are going to run below their best and he has a far better chance than his odds imply.

Lost - 3pts

Friday, 4 April 2014

3pts win DELL ARCA 7/1 (Generally Available))  Pertempts Mersey Novices Hdle

This likable sort has done nothing wrong since arriving from France and ran another cracker last time when a close up fifth in the Coral Cup.That was his first step up to this sort of trip - in fact a furlong further than tomorrows trip. From the way he ran the impression is that a furlong less on a flat track like this will be absolutely ideal and he's sure to make them all go.

Lost - 3pts

3pts win SIMPLY NED 14/1 (Generally available) Doom Bar Maghull Novices Hdle

For one with a relatively low profile yard, Nicky Richards has a fantastic record at this meeting down the years and everything he runs is worth a second look as his horses are rarely overfaced. At first glance Simply Ned may look to have it all to do but looking at his most recent piece of form puts him into contention.He was a close third in a Doncaster handicap off 11st 12lb - the runner up, who was receiving over a stone did the form no harm here on Thursday and Simply Ned is too tempting to avoid.

Lost - 3pts

2pts win CHANCE DU ROY 46/1 (Betfair) Crabbies Grand National
1pt win WAYWARD PRINCE 99/1 (Betfair and Betdaq) Crabbies Grand National

Chance Du Roy's connections were apparently worried about his stamina prior to the Becher but he ran on really strongly to take that in testing conditions and though this is over a mile further it's rare to find horses who see out 3m2f well and don't get the extra mile plus.He ran a fair prep at Ascot last time and though appearing to be the yard's second string, he goes best for O'Brien and has a better chance than his odds suggest.

When Wayward Prince won the 3m novice hurdle here 4 years ago you would have envisaged him having a more successful chase career than he's had. However, he's still proven himself useful and very nearly won the Charlie Hall this season. He appeals as one who could just take to this race and if so then he is massively overpriced.

Lost - 3pts

2pts win BALLYNAGOUR 7/1 (Generally available) Betfred Melling Chase
1pt win PEPITE ROSE 14/1 (Generally available) Betfred Melling Chase

This is one of the worst renewals of this event in memory and as a result it may pay to not consider the trends angles at all and look at the race from scratch.

Ballynagour looks one hell of a good horse when his ailments don't curb him and is no doubt better that the bare ratings suggest. There is still a bit of the unknown about him but he is a massive danger to all here and given the make up of this years event he appeals as a bet here.

You'd never have though Pepite Rose would be in the Melling with a realistic chance but that is very much the case here. A real Spring mare, she looked better than ever last time and should give a really good account of herself.

Lost - 3pts

2pts win MA FILLEULE 15/1 (Betfair and Betdaq)  Crabbies Topham Chase
1pt win REBEL REBELLION 23/1 (Betfair) Crabbies Topham Chase

Nine of the last ten winners of this have carried 10 st 11 lb or under but that trend could be bucked here as plenty near the top of the handicap have strong claims today.

Ma Filleule ran an absolute cracker when finishing runner up to Holywell at Cheltenham in a typical red hot handicap. She races close to the pace and there is every reason to suggest that she'll be involved in a big way here.

Rebel Rebellion won the Grand Sefton over these fences earlier in the season. That was in testing conditions as was his excellent run at Newbury last time but he is fully effective on a better surface and is a must for the short list.

Ma Filleule won + 27.5pts

2pts win STONEBROOK 6/1 (Generally available) Alder Hey H'cap Hdle
1pt win ALAIVAN 15/1 (Betfair and Betdaq) Alder Hey H'cap Hdle

The owner of these two has a terrific record in this event and there are reasons to believe that both will be involved here.

Stonebrook runs in a handicap for the first time and a degree of guesswork is required here but he looks to have been targeted at this for a few months now and could be anything - though no doubt he'll be going over fences next season.

Alaivan hasen't won for three years but  has run two crackers on his last two starts, both in better races than this. He was beaten less than six lengths when sixth in the Betfair followed by a staying on ninth to Lac Fontana in the County. This trip on this sort of track my just be what he wants nowadays -  the only over time he was tried at this trip wa s when pulled up in a G2 at Auteuil in 2010.

Lost - 3pts

Wednesday, 2 April 2014

2pts win GUITAR PETE 7.2/1 (Betfair) Injured Jockey's Fund Juvenile Hdle
1pt win HAWK HIGH 11.5/1 (Betfair) Injured Jockey's Fund Juvenile Hdle

Guitar Pete is very exposed but is holding his form remarkably well and despite the mishap to Calipto in the Triumph, the latter is by no means sure to turn the form around and stands at at nearly double the odds. Sure to figure in the shake up.

Fred Winter winner Hawk High is not one to rule out. The owner likes to have winners here more than anywhere else and it'll only take a couple to run below par to put him bang in here, and that's not taking into account that he may now be on the upgrade quickly.

Guitar Pete won + 13pts

3pts win DIAKALI 10/1 (4 firms including Ladbrokes) Doom Bar Aintree Hdle

Not as in depth as is the norm for this race but if The New One has left something behind at Cheltenham then Diakali could be good enough to take advantage. He ran a cracker in his chosen Cheltenham race and will be better suited by the longer trip here. It's hard to see Ptit Zig turning around the Auteuil from last June and though that was in the mud Diakali is also fully effective on better ground - in fact on the weights and measures his run last time was a career best.

Lost - 3pts

3pts win TURN OVER SIVOLA 8.8/1 (Betfair) Silver Cross Red Rum H'cap Chase

Though still to get his head infront over fences, Turn Over Sivola looks a likely winner of this. He acquitted himself well against a couple of smart novices on his first two runs and has since run in handicaps, the best performance coming last time and though he's up 4lb in the ratings for that run, he appeals as the sort that his trainer will get the best from in the sort of event that he shines in.

Lost - 3pts

1.5pts win DOCTOR HARPER 13/1 (Betfair) Dominican Republic H'cap Hdle
1.5pts win ON THE BRIDGE 17.5/1 (Betfair) Dominican Republic H'cap Hdle

Three mile on decent ground should be ideal for Doctor Harper who should make a big impact in the novice chase ranks next season. His yard remains in very good form and won this event three years back and has no real negatives hanging over him here.

At the age of nine On The Bridge looks better than ever and ran an absolute cracker in the Pertempts Final last time when not getting the rub of the green. There did not appear to be any fluke about that performance - indeed he has shown himself a much improved individual during this season and as he races off the same mark here he must make the shortlist.

D' Harpet won + 17pts