Saturday, 15 March 2014

2pts win SUN CLOUD 7/1 (Generally available) Betfred Midlands Grand National
1pt win ALFIE SPINNER 33/1 (Generally available) Betfred Midlands Grand National

A progressive staying handicap chase with just six races over fences under his belt, Sun Cloud is just the sort that Malcolm Jefferson gets the best out of and he is a likely winner of this. After two ready style victories where he looked to have got his jumping together, he fell when beginning to take closer order in the Eider. Hopefully there won't be any repeat of that and he can carry on where he'd left off previously.

Alfie Spinner hasn't won since 14 starts and 27 months ago but the level of form he has shown this season indicates that all the ability is still there. The only time today's rider has been aboard was when he ran a cracker at Sandown in December and he looks very much set to outrun his odds.

Lost - 3pts

Thursday, 13 March 2014

1.5pts win PEARL CASTLE 11.5/1 (Betfair) JCB Triumph Hdle
1.5pts win TIGER ROLL 11/1 (Betfair and Betdaq) JCB Triumph Hdle

Pearl Castle has a serious chance of giving John Quinn his second winner of this event in three runnings. A lightly raced but useful handicapper on the level when he preferred decent ground, he's took really well to hurdles and is certainly a good deal better than bare form of his last two wins suggests. He's sure to be travelling strongly behind the leaders and is worth taking aboard.

Tiger Roll made a mistake as he came to challenge Guitar Pete in a G1 at Leopardstown last month, with Plinth behind in third. He appeals as the one who will eventually turn out the better of the three and a big run is expected here.

T. Roll won + 14.5pts

1.5pts win CHELTENIAN 9/1(Hills, Betfred, and both Exchanges) Vincent O'Brien County Hdle
1.5pts win MINELLA FORU 11.5/1 (Betfair and Betdaq) Vincent O'Brien County Hdle

Former Champion Bumper winner Cheltenian and give Phillip Hobbs another winner at the meeting. He was off the track for two years but has returned to start his hurdle career and looks to have retained all the ability. The drier surface looks ideal for him and he looks sure to figure in a big way.

Minella Foru looks to have been laid out for this and must make the short list. The animal he beat at Navan in November is pretty  useful in his own right and he had decent horses all around him when given a proper prep for this last time in a G2. Connections appear to think a bit of him and he's impossible to leave out of calculations.

Lost - 3pts

3pts win TRIOLO D'ALENE 13/1 (Betfair and Betdaq) Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup

Bob's Worth looked a well up to standard winner of this last year but history shows how hard it is for them to repeat and he did have one hell of a hard race in the Lexus which was in contrast to him arriving here last year fresh from a break following his Hennessy success, while though it's not conclusive, Silviniaco Conti gives the impression that he's best on a flatter track than this.First Lieutenant should run OK but is very exposed and is not going to suddenly improve, and this then leaves Last Instalment and Triolo D'Alene - the only two others with realistic chances.

Like Bob's Worth last year  Triolo D'Alene arrives here fresh from a break after a convincing Hennessey success, beating the progressive and talented Rocky Creek. On the bare form he still has plenty to find but he appears to be on the upgrade very fast and you would not have envisaged him as a Hennessey winner last Spring, even after he'd won the Topham. He is the value call here.

Lost - 3pts

2pts win NEXT SENSATION 7.6/1 (Betfair and Betdaq) Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase
1pt win DARE ME 25/1 (4 firms and both Exchanges) Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase

Next Sensation is 9lb higher in the ratings from last time but is in terrific nick at the moment and they may not be able to stop him here even though this is by far his stiffest task so far. The upturn in his career has come suddenly and it would not be a total shock if he ran up his mark to the point where he ends up tackling  graded two mile races next season.

Dare Me has not turned out the horse he promised to be in his Bumper days but still looked cheap when going for £10,000 in May 2012. He was quite impressive to the eye last time looking as though he'd win more races and though that was in the mud, them runs in the Cheltenham and Aintree Bumpers, though now some time back, came on a sound surface. Worth a go at the price.

Lost - 3pts

Wednesday, 12 March 2014

2pts win DOUBLE ROSS 14/1 (Generally available) JLT Novices Chase
1pt win OFF THE GROUND 26/1 (Betfair) JLT Novices Chase

This is wide open and it may be worth chancing a couple who have realistic claims despite the fact that they would have been better off if the race was a handicap.

Double Ross is already a proven hardy sort for a novice and won the old Massey Ferguson back here in December. He's run well in his two races since - again, both at this venue and lines up after a short break. Is very appealing at the price despite having it to do strictly on weights and measures.

Off The Ground has got his act together over fences recently and is ideally suited by Good ground. This is a big step up in grade but he could surprise.

Lost - 3pts

1.5pts win UNCLE JIMMY 23/1 (Betfair) Pertemps Network Final
1.5pts win CROWNING JEWEL 25/1 (Betfair) Pertemps Network Final

Uncle Jimmy looks on the upgrade and can confirm last time out Warwick form with Grand Vision. He had previously run a cracker here on ground that he will encounter tomorrow and should not be overlooked despite his yard appearing to have better fancied prospects in the race.

Prior to the run here, Uncle Jimmy had been third to Crowning Jewel at Aintree. With the Keith Reveley yard continuing in good form, the latter has strong claims in his own right. Conditions will be ideal for him with all five victories having the word 'Good' in the going description.

Lost - 3pts

1.5pts win BALLYNAGOUR 16/1 (Betfair) Bryne Group Plate
1.5pts win THIRD INTENTION 14/1 ( Corals, PPower,Bet 365 and both exchanges) Bryne Group Plate

Ballynagour is clearly difficult to train but he was supported here in the Paddy Power as though he was much better than his present handicap mark. He appears for the first time since, the said handicap rating still protected, and in the hope that his problems have been sorted out he is worth support.

Third Intention has bags of ability but often finds something to beat him. This scenario of a big field, fast run race on Good ground may suit him as he travels well and if the cards fall right he has a serious chance.

Ballynagour won + 21pts

Tuesday, 11 March 2014

3pts win ROYAL BOY 7/1 ( Ladbrokes, Corals, both Exchanges) Neptune Investment Novices Hdle

Red Sherlock seems to have a bit of character and could be a lot better than the already high level of form he's shown - which he'd need to be as we can be sure that the horse he beat,Rathvinden, is rated inferior to stable companion Faugheen. However, Royal Boy could be a match for all of them and is the most appealing bet here. Confidence is increased by the way the two Henderson horses ran in the Supreme Novices earlier today, including the animal Royal Boy beat at Kempton. At this stage he could still be anything but has proven himself a talented novice and provided he goes on this faster surface ( was beaten too far for the surface to be the cause on his only run on good ground) he'll be thereabouts.

Non Runner

3pts win BALLYCASEY 6/1 ( 2 firms inc Betfred and both Exchanges) RSA Chase

This is top heavy with horses who are proven on no other surface than very soft and the couple at attractive odds who like Spring ground are probably not good enough. Ballycasey is the only real contender with a first rate chance on the book who is capable of running to his optimum on this sort of surface - in fact he may prove to be better on it. He has no real question marks against him here and taking everything into account is more reasonably priced than may first appear.

Lost - 3pts

3pts win CAPTAIN CONAN 5/1 ( Hills, Corals, both Exchanges) Bet Victor Queen Mother Champion Chase

This tremendously likeable individual can have his first big day tomorrow. Always looking one made for the big time he seems to be a real spring horse. Arriving here fresh after a three month absence and certain improvement left in him, he has a seriuos chance of turning around the last race form with Sire De Grugy who he beat at this venue earlier last season.

Lost - 3pts

Monday, 10 March 2014

3pts win IRVING 7/2 (Betfair and Betdaq) Sky Bet Supreme Novices Hdle

This could be a vintage renewal of this event and it's not hard to envisage a couple of these returning here as leading hopes for next years Champion Hurdle - it's now 10 years since the winner of this has gone on to take that race.

There has been mixed vibes in the market over Vatours over the past couple of weeks and ideally he might want genuine Winter ground while you feel Vaniteux would have had better claims in one of the longer novice events.

On the other hand, Irving looks absolutely the real deal and it's hard to put anything ahead of him in preference, even taking the price into consideration - especially as connections are adamant that he's best on the sort of surface he'll encounter tomorrow. He''s likely to jump more fluently with a solid pace on and is sure to take all the beating.

Lost - 3pts

2pts win DODGING BULLETS 6/1 (P Power) Racing Post Arkle Chase
1pt win VALDEZ 10/1 ( P Power and Stan James) Racing Post Arkle Chase

Dodging Bullets has massive points in his favour and looks a ready made winner of this. He travels, holds his position, jumps at pace ,is proven around here and is best on Good ground.. He also has the raw ability to beat these and it will be a shock if he does not figure in a big way.

Valdez has took really well to fences and is unbeaten in all three starts. There looks to be an incalculable amount more to come and he is a contender at eye catching odds.

Lost - 3pts

3pts win SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR  3.8/1 (Betfair)Terry Biddlecombe National Hunt Chase

This gelding looks very much to have been plotted out for this by connections with a fine record in the race. The best has certainly yet to be seen of him over fences and he looks the type who will find a niche for himself in the valuable marathon events. Impossible to leave him out here as he's sure to give an excellent account of himself.

Lost - 3pts

Saturday, 8 March 2014

1.5pts win BALTIMORE ROCK 7.6/1 (Betfair) William Hill Imperial Cup
1.5pts win SWING BOWLER 8.6/1(Betfair) William Hill Imperial Cup

Two or three that would have made the short list are very weak on the exchanges this morning and the best policy may be to split stakes on the two David Pipe horses who both have solid chances.

Baltimore Rock is going to eventually reach a ceiling higher than his present 125. He'll like today's conditions and the form of his win last time has been given a boost by the third home. There is  mo reason why he should not figure in what is no more than an average renewal of this event.

Swing Bowler is not really a second string as she does not appear to be Scudamore's ride and indeed she goes well for today's pilot. She ran a cracker in the Betfair on her reappearance and though her mark has gone up further it does not flatter her and unless something turns out with hindsight to be thrown in ( such as her stable companion), then she is sure to give an excellent account of herself.

B. Rock Won + 9.5pts

Saturday, 1 March 2014

3pts win NIGHT IN MILAN 15.5/1 (Betfair) William Hill Grimthorpe Chase

A case of some sort can be made out for every runner here and Night In Milan very much catches the eye at the price. The Reveley family have traditional done well at this venue and Night In Milan has run two crackers here in four attempts, winning one of them last December. He looked as good as ever that day and a 6lb difference may not curb him if he turns up in that sort of form again. His last run, also here, can be ignored as the ground was probably unsuitably soft for him and a few of the fancied ones ran stinkers in that event.He lines up here with the same sort of chance he had last year ( he fell early) but at double the odds and is worth support.

Won + 45pts