Saturday, 27 December 2014

3pts win VICTORS SERENADE 31/1 (Betfair) Coral Welsh Grand National

This one has plenty going for him at a decent price. He's a bit of a hit and miss performer but does know how to get his head in front when things fall right and has a fair strike rate for a performer in this sphere, He had three of today's rivals directly behind him when staying on strongly to win at this venue two outings ago and has a pedigree that suggests he'll be fine with this extreme test.

Lost  - 3pts

Friday, 26 December 2014

3pts win JOHN'S SPIRIT 35/1 (Betfair) William Hill King George V1 Chase

There is no single individual to fear here and cases can be made for plenty of these. John's Spirit is a much improved, likeable individual and appeals as one who'll go really well today. His progress over the past 18 months can be measured by his attempt to follow up in the Paddy Power; off a 17lb higher rating he narrowly failed to take the event again and there could still be further improvement left. Admittedly, he has become a Cheltenham specialist and his optimum performances have been at trips shorter than todays, but the ground will assist in stretching his stamina and the eye catching way he travels in his races will be a big plus around here.

Lost - 3pts

Saturday, 20 December 2014

3pts win PYROMANIAC 31/1 (Betfair) Ladbroke H'cap Hdle

The Tony Martin yard does not carry the aura it once but this gelding is worth a second look here, despite being easy to back this morning. He's only had four runs over timber - including when defeating a highly thought of animal at Killarney in August, and a highly respectable never nearer third in a Grade 2 event at Cheltenham last time. There's plenty we don't yet know about him regarding his ability in this sphere and with the ground not going to pose any problems he could surprise some better fancied rivals.

Lost - 3pts

Saturday, 6 December 2014

1.5pts win RENARD 33/1 (Betfair) Betfred Becher Chase
1,5 pts win BURTON PORT 35/1 (Betfair) Betfred Becher Chase

A case can be made for most of these and these two the eye at big prices.

Renard has jumped around here in a Topham and he arrives here in fine heart after a cracking run in a competitive Haydock race last time out. His yard continues to be in good form and a forward showing would not surprise.

Burton Port is not quite the force of old but still retains a good amount of ability as demonstrated when narrowly failing to land the old Whitbread in the spring. He'll strip fitter from his comeback run and is another who is well capable of going close here.

Lost - 3pts

Saturday, 29 November 2014

3pts win THE DRUIDS NEPHEW 10/1 ( Ladbrokes, Paddy Power) Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup

Always a cracking race to get stuck into - you often go into this looking at something that could be a genuine Gold Cup horse , with Djakadam and Smad Place being the ones that fit that profile. However, it's not always won by a potential champion and The Druids Nephew is unlikely to be wining a Gold Cup but is a much improved individual since moving to the fast progressing Mulholland yard and has a massive chance today. He ran a lifetime best when chasing home Sam Winner over 3m4f at Cheltenham last time off the same mark as today, giving the impression that he'd have won at around todays trip. His style of running suits this event and he seems sure to give an excellent account of himself.

Lost - 3pts

Saturday, 22 November 2014

2pts win TRUSTAN TIMES 20/1 (Generally available) Betfair Fixed Brush  H'cap Hdle
1pt win ONE FOR HARRY 64/1 (Betfair) Betfair Fixed Brush H'cap Hdle

Trustan Times won this two years ago off a 6lb lower mark and faced some stiff tasks for the remainder of the season. He finished halfway down the field in lasts years running but his run in the Pertemps Final at the Festival showed every ounce of the ability still remains - he followed that with a cracking run in the Scottish National. Back here after a disappointing reappearance over fences, and with the yard in fair form, on ground that will be ideal, he should acquit himself well from the top of the handicap.

One For Harry is very weak on the Exchanges but is worth a speculative point. His yard is in a glowing state at the moment , the horse loves soft ground and looks a much improved individual of late.

Lost - 3pts

3pts win DOUBLE ROSS 25/1 ( 4 firms inc Bet Victor and Stan James) Betfair Chase

Though he'd be better off in a handicap, Double Ross has a better chance than his price suggests and it'll only take a couple not to perform to their optimum to give him a shout. He ran a cracker on his first run over this trip in the Charlie Hall and on this sort of ground he may just be able to turn the form around - he wasn't stopping clearly has a future at trips in excess of those he'd previously been campaigned over.

Lost - 3pts

Sunday, 16 November 2014

3pts win KATGARY 18/1 (Betfair) Stan James Greatwood Hurdle

This is going to be a slog and Katgary at least has winning form in heavy ground - on the sole occasion he has encountered those conditions min a Enghein hurdle race. He ran a cracker on his first race in the UK, when narrowly failing to take the Fred Winter, looking one with an interesting future, He then finished sixth when favourite for a big field amateur event at Aintree, and reappeared at the same venue last month, only beating one home. There is still plenty to learn about him but a repeat of the Fred Winter run would put him in with a big chance here and he's worth a go at the price.

Lost - 3pts

Saturday, 15 November 2014

3pts win EASTER METEOR 13/1 (Betfair)  Paddy Power Gold Cup

This one's chance is there for all to see but remains a couple of points longer than perhaps he should be. Still in with a big chance of winning when coming down in this last year, he has a pull in the weights with the winner, will not be inconvenienced by the proper soft ground, and will be primed to the optimum on his first run for the Pipe yard who have a spectacular record in this event. He is albeit 8lb higher in the ratings than last year and would be vulnerable to something with pounds in hand but all in all he appeals as one who'll be a big player today.

Lost - 3pts

Saturday, 8 November 2014

1.5pts win SIR WALTER SCOTT 39/1 (Betfair) Betfred November H'cap
1.5pts win RHOMBUS 35/1 (Betfair)  Betfred November H'cap

Former Ballydoyle inmate Sir Walter Scott is clearly the Cumani second string here but is selected in the hope that the soft ground might bring out an optimum. He's lightly raced, but clearly has plenty of ability proven by his creditable 7th in the Ebor off a 3lb higher rating than today, and a repeat of that run would put him in with a chance. He disappointed with the blinds on for the first time on his last run but the headgear remains and he may just surprise here.

Rhombus was well beat in the Cesarewitch but won his previous two starts, the last off a 4lb lower rating than today. He looked to be on the upgrade coming into the Newmarket race and his hold up style of running makes him one that could still be on a winning mark. He's fully proven in todays conditions and has realistic claims.

Lost - 3pts

3pts win JUST A PAR 12/1 (Generally available) Badger Ales Trophy

There's only 16lb covering this whole handicap and Just A Par may just turn out to be a bit better than these - in fact he's the only runner here who has any sort of pretensions to challenge for some of the showcase events and a win here would put him in the Hennessey picture. Runner up in the big staying novices hurdle at Aintree two seasons back, his first season over fences was arguable a shade disappointing. He was highly tried most of the time though and there is still time for him to make a name for himself and a big run looks on the cards here.

Lost - 3pts

Saturday, 1 November 2014

3pts win MOUNTAIN KING 6/1 (Generally available) William Hill H'cap Hdle

Phillip Hobbs's horses are absolutely flying at the moment and Mountain King is impossible to pass by here. A young progressive handicap hurdler who should pay blind support this season, Mountain King ran  a very satisfactory race on his reappearance at Cheltenham last month and will be 100% spot on for this.

Lost - 3pts

3pts win GEVREY CHAMBERTIN 11/1 (Betfair) United House Gold Cup H'cap Chase

There is still plenty to learn about this individual - he looked to have enormous potential when winning the big fixed Brush event at Haydock last November but blotted his copybook, albeit when thrown in at the deep end on his first two runs over regular fences in the spring. He then reappeared at Bangor where he looked to have a straightforward task but he made a meal of it and may be one who needs to be in the right mood . However, there is no doubting his raw ability and he's worth support at fairish odds.

Lost - 3pts

Saturday, 25 October 2014

3pts win STEPS 15/1 (Betfair and Betdaq) Betdaq Betting Exchange H'cap

This gelding showed enough last time to indicate that he's not gone for the season and should put in a good show off the top of the handicap. He's been performing with credit in Group and Listed company on his last five starts but on his last start in a handicap, in the big June spring at Epsom, he ran a cracker off a 1 lb lower rating than today. That is more than offset by having a promising 7 lb claimer on top today, and with him fully proven on soft, he catches the eye here.

Lost - 3pts

Saturday, 18 October 2014

1.5pts win SIRIUS PROSPECT 29/1 (Betfair) Balmoral H'cap
1.5pts win HAWKEYETHENOO 39/1 (Betfair) Balmoral H'cap

On a tricky card on ground that even the proven  soft ground performers may not have encountered before, it's still probably best to concentrate on those that have shown an inclination for these conditions though some imagination is required.

Sirius Prospect's one run on heavy came in the 2011 July Cup when he was far from disgraced in finishing mid-div. Three of his last four victories have come in soft ground and he arrives here in fair heart after a good fourth in a similarly valuable event here last time out.

Hawkeyethenoo is getting on in years and hasn't won since August 2012. However, his run here early last month shows that the ability is still there. He was coincidentally one place ahead of Sirius Prospect in the aforementioned July Cup and the combination of ground and trip may just spark something off - in his early days he was campaigned as a miler.

Lost - 3pts

Saturday, 11 October 2014

2pts win COMMUNICATOR 20/1 (Generally available) Betfred Cesarewitch
1pt win VILLA ROYALE 54/1 (Betfair) Betfred Cesarewitch

Andrew Balding's yard is in cracking form at this late stage in the season and Communicator can finally have his big day. He hasn't won for over two years but is capable of taking one of these big pots - he's been runner up in a November Handicap and was third in this years Chester Cup. At todays weights he has every chance of turning that form around - he's ideally drawn to boot. Though he lacks a telling turn of pace he stays forever, arrives here on the back of a good Haydock run, and should run a very big race.

Not many improve horses that leave David O'Meara but Michael Appleby appears to have done just that with Villa Royale. Her performance when wining at York in May was a lifetime best. This was then followed  by a below par run at the Royal meeting and she has not been seen since. However, the yard has had a couple of winners in the last few days and Villa Royale is worth chancing at big odds.

Lost - 3pts

Sunday, 5 October 2014

2pts win DOLNIYA 20/1 (Generally available) Qatar Prix De L' Arc De Triomphe
1pt win PRINCE GIBRALTAR 35/1 (Betfair) Qatar Prix De L' Arc De Triomphe

Far more wide open than is the norm for this, with no one real stonewall solid candidate that stands out.

Dolniya catches the eye at the odds available. A typically progressive Royer- Dupre/ Aga Khan horse,she stepped up from Listed company to win a Group 2 at Saint Cloud at the end of June, looking an interesting candidate for the Autumn. She tried Group 1 company for the first time in the Vermeille, and was never nearer than at the line, finishing an eye catching third with Treve one place behind. She's nicely drawn here, looks to be better than her bare form with further improvement left, and looks set for a big run.

Prince Gibraltar has become a little frustrating. Given not the most astute  ride when favourite for the Prix Du Jockey Club, he then just failed to get up in the Grand Prix De Paris. He then disappointed when third at Deauville when the excuses had run out. However, his price is nowhere near indicative of his ability and with the blinkers on, he could cause an upset.

Lost - 3pts

Saturday, 4 October 2014

1.5pts win HEAVY METAL 25/1(at least 4 firms inc Lads and both exchanges)Totepool Challenge Cup
1.5pts win EASTERN IMPACT 25/1 ( at least 3 firms and both exchanges) Totepool Challenge Cup

Heavy Metal is only 4lb higher in the ratings than when winning a similarly valuable handicap back here in July. He followed that run up with another cracking performance when just caught on the line in the big mile handicap at Goodwood. He's been well below form in his three starts since but like any from his yard is always a candidate to suddenly bounce back to form and has claims in a wide open event.

Eastern Impact has been developing into a quality , progressive sprint handicapper but ran very poorly in the Ayr Gold Cup, where even the draw could not be blamed. It's interesting that he's back out again and stepped up to 7f for the first time. Many things unknown here - there's also a better fancied stable companion in the line up - but he remains an animal with an interesting future and is worth chancing here.

Lost - 3pts

Saturday, 27 September 2014

2pts win NICEOFYOUTOTELLME 17.5/1 (Betfair) Betfred Cambridgeshire
1pt win YEAGER 39/1 (Betfair) Betfred Cambridgeshire

Evidently not one who takes a lot of racing, Niceofyoutotellme is sure to have been nursed to his peak for today and has better credentials than most. He's 6lb higher in the ratings than when winning over C&D in the Spring, which was a competitive event in it's own right, and is ideally suited by the quirky gradients of this track and comfortable in the big field scenario. He wasn't beaten far when 9th in the Hunt Cup, after being hampered when making his move, and was never close enough to challenge at Goodwood last time. The yard is in fairish form and a big run should be forthcoming.

The Noseda yard has had two winners from it's three runners at this meeting already and with a proven track record in the showcase handicaps, it's runners are always worth a second look. Yaeger looked a smart handicapper come Group horse in the making when winning at Ascot last July but hasn't added to that since and perhaps his trip to Arlington put him back a bit. However, the fact that the yard have held on to him indicate that all the ability is probably still there and he catches the eye at present odds.

Lost - 3pts

Saturday, 20 September 2014

1.5pts win GO FAR 20/1 (Betfair) William Hill Ayr Gold Cup
1.5pts win EASTERN IMPACT 22/1 (Betfair) William Hill Ayr Gold Cup

If the draw pans out as it did yesterday then these two have moderate but far from insurmountable berths to overcome. These factors are often disproportionately factored into the odds and it's not certain that yesterdays trends will be mirrored today'

Go Far went into the Portland on the back of a hat trick in lower grade handicaps but proved that he is still progressing with an excellent performance to finish sixth after not having the clearest of runs.There is no reason why he should not be in the same heart again today and should figure in the shake up.

Eastern Impact is a likeable sort with a big future in the valuable sprint races and will maybe be able  to progress enough to compete at the top level next year. Though only having eight races under his belt his last three have all come in big field ultra competitive handicaps, and he's performed admirably in all three, wining the last at Newmarket. The 5lb rise in the ratings is more than deserved and he is a must for the short list.

Lost - 3pts

Saturday, 13 September 2014

3pts win INTRINSIC 6/1 ( 4 firms and both Exchanges) Ladbroke Portland H'cap

The front two in the forecast have stonewall solid credentials here with the preferred one being Intrinsic. Though disappointing in Listed company last time he had looked up to Group class previously and will no doubt go on and prove himself at that level in the future. He was ridden more prominently that day and no doubt he'll be held up today, It's a quick six furlongs that he won over at Goodwood so this in between trip should be adequate for him to run down the leaders today. He's re-united with Hughes who is three from four aboard him, and the partnership will take some beating today.

Lost - 3pts

3pts win HARTNELL 18/1 ( 4 firms and both Exchanges) Ladbrokes St Leger

Many possibilities here and at the odds Hartnell is worth chancing to put his below par Voltigeur performance behind him. His performance in the Bahrain Trophy puts him in here as a realistic contender. He beat Windshear and Forever Now fair and square that day, galloping on strongly and if he is in the same heart today then it's hard to believe the other two have improved enough to turn the form around. Obviously, there is the York race to put behind him but that is more than compensated by the price and he could take some pegging back.

Lost - 3pts

Thursday, 11 September 2014

1.5pts win RETIREMENT PLAN 11.5/1 (Betfair) Ladbrokes Mallard H'cap
1.5pts win FARQUHAR 15/1 (Betfair) Ladbrokes Mallard H'cap

Out of the Ebor runners that re-oppose here Retirement Plan is a likely candidate to come out on top. He's  very lightly raced for one of his age and this will only be his third race beyond 12 furlongs - his two best pieces of form have come in the other two - both his most recent outings. As well as being a likely Cesarewitch candidate it's worth noting that he also holds an entry in the G2 Quipco stayers event.

Peter Chapple Hyam had the runner up in the Park Hill at a big price,  and in the same ownership Farquhar catches the eye stepping up in trip which promises to bring about further improvement. The booking of a promising 5lb claimer, the first time the yard have used him, is also interesting.

Lost - 3pts
2pts win KIYOSHI 11/1 ( 3 firms including Corals and Hills) Japan Racing Association Sceptre Stakes
1pt win EVITA PERON 22/1 (Betfair) Japan Racing Association Sceptre Stakes

Kiyoshi suffered a setback while being prepared for the 1,000 GNS and did not make her reappearance until the Royal meeting. She has yet to prove that she has trained on but her last two outings have been encouraging and if she steps tp to the level of form she showed last year she'll go very close.

Evita Peron ran in the same Deauville event as Kiyoshi last time, finishing behind that rival after clearly failing to see out the one mile trip. She had previously looked a filly to follow when showing a good turn of foot after travelling well  to win a Newmarket listed event. An interesting contender back down a furlong today.

Kiyoshi Won + 21pts

1.5pts win MELROSE ABBEY 14/1 (Generally available)  DFS  Park Hill Stakes
1.5pts win MOMENT IN TIME 16/1 ( 5 firms and both exchanges)  DFS  Park Hill Stakes

On the bare form Melrose Abbey has it all to do on the back of winning a handicap of a rating of 82. She did however make light of that mark and looked a filly who could be on the upgrade quickly and one who would stay further.She's from a yard that has established an excellent record with fillies and she may well prove to be up to this task.

Moment In Time has not been in the winners circle since winning a G3 at Haydock in June 13 but retains all of her ability and lines up here on the back of two solid performances. The first when runing Silk Sari very close at Newbury when partnered by today's jockey for the first time, the second when coming from off the pace to finish a good fourth in a valuable Arlington Park event. She shouldn't be far away today.

Lost - 3pts

Saturday, 6 September 2014

3pts win GLENARD 14/1 (Betfair) Betfred TV Old Borough Cup

Havana Cooler goes into this stonewall solid credentials but is priced accordingly and at 2.5 x his odds , Glenard makes more appeal. Charlie Hills's four year old is running consistently well at the moment and adapts well to different tactics and will put in a bold bid to defy a 4lb rise for winning a similarly competitive handicap at York last time, making all the running. With there looking to be plenty of pace on he'll be able to settle well on the heels of the leaders and everything points to a big run here.

Lost - 3pts

3pts win ASTRONEREUS 10/1 (Betfair) Winning Post Bookmakers Bristol Handicap

Amanda Perret's horses are running well at the moment and this colt looks sure to give an excellent account of himself here. He looked ideally suited to this trip when stepped up to it for the first time last month in one of the Shergar Cup races. He's been raised 5lb in the ratings for that run but is open to plenty more improvement and is one of the more likely winners of this.

Lost - 3pts

Saturday, 30 August 2014

1.5pts win BUSATTO 20/1 ( At least 9 firms) St James Theatre H'cap
1.5pts win TRES CORONAS 22/1 ( Betfair) St James Theatre H'cap

An absolutely wide open event and some sort of realistic chance can be made out for almost all of these.

Busatto disappointed when held up at York last week and if front tactics are re-applied they would hopefully produce something like his lifetime best when fourth to a stable companion in a valuable Goodwood event in July . That sort of form would put him in here with a big chance and it's encouraging that he's not a massive drifter on the exchanges.

Tres Coronas's last five wins have all come over 10f with ease in the ground and he must merit consideration here. It may seem to be asking too much for a 7 year old to win off a rating above anything he's won off before but he ran a cracker off only a 2lb lower figure when a close second to Clever Cookie at York three outings ago and he could surprise here.

Lost - 3pts

Saturday, 23 August 2014

1.5pts win WADI AL HATTAWI 12/1 ( 7 firms) Betfred Ebor
1.5pts win VAN PERCY 16/1 ( Betfair and Betdaq)  Betfred Ebor

Nothing really went right for Wadi Al Hattawi in the Duke of Edinburgh and today he gets another chance off the same mark and is hard to put a line though. He has the profile of one that his yard does well with in this sort of event - in fact they've won this twice in the last six years - and the step up in trip should suit more than hinder.

Van Percy has established himself as a very talented handicapper and there looks to be plenty more to come. He's won three from his last six, is 12311 with Probert on board, and looks capable of defying the 4lb penalty incurred at Goodwood where he looked better than ever.

Lost - 3pts

Thursday, 21 August 2014

3pts win WINDFAST 14/1 ( at least 5 firms) Skybet City of York Stakes

This is a very interesting runner who catches the eye a bit here. Windfast began the season losing his maiden tag at Nottingham and was then pitted into the Greenham, making no impression. Following an improved effort behind Coulsty in a Listed event, he then ran a cracker in the Jersey, finishing fourth and a few places ahead of Coulsty this time and with some decent performers behind him, including That Is The Spirit. He weakened late when stepped up to a mile in a G3 at Goodwood last time and needless to say the return to 7f will be ideal here and with the yard in decent form he should run well at a decent price.


Wednesday, 20 August 2014

3pts win BRONZE ANGEL 11.5/1 (Betfair) Clipper Logistics Stakes

The 2012 Cambridgeshire winner has plenty going for him here. In line with the good form of his yard lately, he's been running pleasingly and won convincingly over C & D off a 5lb lower mark last month. He ran a cracker in the Betfred Mile last time, in and around some of tomorrow's opponents, and on a course that clearly suits he can come out best this time. Very hard not to see him running a big race in this.

Lost - 3pts

Tuesday, 19 August 2014

1.5pts win TOTALIZE 15.5/1 (Betfair) Fine Equnity Stakes
1.5pts win QUEST FOR MORE 14/1 (Betfair) Fine Equinity Stakes

Not disgraced in the Pitman's Derby, Totalize returns to York where he won under tomorrow's rider on his previous outing and appeals as one who'll put up a good show here. He's off a higher mark and on the face of it in a more competitive race, but these events that have now become regular features at this venue with the same horses turning up again, and are won by all sorts but  he's a versatile sort and from a yard that tends to keep these types ticking over in good heart.

Quest for More no doubt has his purposes at home but is still an interesting contender here. He's stepping up to this trip for the first time and any amount of improvement that may be forthcomimg, no matter how small, would see him here with a reasonable chance.

Lost - 3pts

Saturday, 16 August 2014

3pts win CAMBORNE 12/1 ( 5 firms and both Exchanges) Betfred TV Geoffrey Freer Stakes

Lots of possibilities here but Camborne is the value call at present odds. Admittedly, he's been out of sorts so far this season but the fact  his yard continues in cracking form allied to the underfoot conditions being ideal on a course he likes, it'll be no surprise if he returns to his very best today which would see him go very close to winning this.

Lost - 3pts

3pts win FAIRWAY TO HEAVEN 12/1 ( 7 firms and both exchanges) Great St Wilfred H'cap

Hailing from a very shrewd yard that overperforms considering the general quality of animal it receives, Fairway To Heaven appeals as a likely winner of this. Lightly raced for a five year old and open to plenty more improvement ,he indeed gave the impression that he may suddenly be on the upgrade fast when coming from a long way back to win a competitive and quite valuable handicap at Windsor. He'll still be able off his 7lb higher rating and the overnight rain will give him the required ease to produce an optimum performance.

Lost - 3pts

Saturday, 9 August 2014

2pts win LLANARMON LAD 9/1(Generally available) Betfred Goals Galore H'cap
1pt win GROUNDBREAKING 14/1( Generally available) Betfred Goals Galore H'cap

The most interesting betting race of the day on an otherwise mundane Saturday and Llanarmon Lad's credentials are hard to ignore. A versatile sort who's effective from 1m-1m2f on different sorts  of ground, he'd still only had nine races under his belt and is open to plenty more improvement which should negate his steady rise up the ratings. There is no reason why he won't run his race today and he is sure to give an excellent account of himself.

Groundbreaking looked Group material when slamming  his field in an albeit ordinary handicap for Newmarket back in May. Like a few others in the field he finished unplaced behind Arab Spring at Royal Ascot, perhaps not getting the full rub of the green that day. He still could be anything and must be shortlisted for today.

Lost - 3pts

Saturday, 2 August 2014

3pts win DOUBLE BLUFF 11/1 (Betfair - after the three withdrawals) Jaguar Stakes

King's Fete is plenty short enough here and there are more attractive options elsewhere,none more so than Double Bluff'.

After disappointing in the Lingfield Derby Trial has been campaigned in three handicaps, running really well on his last two starts; finding the useful Pallasator too good for him last time but having the rest of the field decisively beat. He's still relatively lightly raced and it would be a surprise if there wasn't plenty of improvement still  left in him. He very much appeals as one who'll run a big race today.

Won + 31.5 pts

3pts win NINJAGO  18.5/1(Betfair)  32Red Stewards Cup

Ninjago runs off the same mark as when fifth in this last year. He was perhaps entitled to finish a little closer than he did, not entirely getting the rub of the green though this of course comes with his style of running. He's only been seen twice so far this season, running a cracker behind Goldream at Newmarket and finishing mid-div in the Wokingham. If the cards fall right for him here then he'll go close to winning this.

Lost - 3pts

Thursday, 31 July 2014

3pts win STEELER 20/1 ( At least 6 firms) Betfred Mile

This should run well at a generous price. A winner of the Royal Lodge when with Mark Johnston, he then finished third to Kingsbarns in the Racing Post Trophy before encountering a setback. He did not reappear until this Spring at the Meydan festival. He ran a couple of good races there but the significant piece of form that puts him in the picture here is his third in the Hunt Cup; he runs off the same rating in this, is from a yard that won one of the handicaps at the meeting today, and he'll not be far away.

Lost - 3pts

Wednesday, 30 July 2014

2pts win LONGSHADOW 18/1 (Betfair) Goodwood Stakes
1pt win LION BEACON 33/1 (Betfair) Goodwood Stakes

Maid In Rio's has been on the upward curved pretty fast in the past six weeks but has had plenty of racing and can't be expected to produce optimums each time - if he blows out then this is a wide open affair.

Longshadow has been placed well by his new trainer and has won three from his last four, clearly being a bit off his best when disappointing on his penultimate outing at Beverley. He looked in fine heart when back to winning at Newcastle on Saturday and while this is his stiffest task to date he looks the type to continue on the upgrade and could still have something in hand of the assessor.

Lion Beacon made all to win here last time but that was in a less competitive affair and he is easy to back on the exchanges right now. However, there are reasons why small support could be rewarded. His local yard do well at this venue and strive to have a runner or two with a reasonable chance at this flagship fixture and two of the three runners here yesterday performed with credit,outrunning their odds. The owner too has had success here in the past, including a Stewards Cup. It would not be a shock if Lion Beacon went really well here.

Lost - 3pts

Saturday, 26 July 2014

3pts win GOLDREAM 12/1 (Generally available) Skybet Dash

Hailing from a yard that does well with sprinters, Goldream has run two cracking races on both visits to this venue, the last of them coming in a very competitive affair at last season's Ebor meeting off a 5lb lower mark than today. That's due to the lifetime best performance when winning at Newmarket in May but he's ran well in both starts since showing that he'll still be capable of winning off this mark. All in all, he appeals as one who'll give a really good account of himself today.

Lost - 3pts

Saturday, 12 July 2014

3pts win SHWAIMAN 8/1 (Generally available)  John Smith's Silver Cup

Is proving a little frustrating to follow now - albeit he was tried in the Ascot Gold Cup last time and showed enough to suggest he's not a lost cause just yet. He ran really well over C&D on his previous outing, travelling like a winner at one stage and has the raw ability to defy top weight today. This fast ground will be ideal - it was on a similar surface that he created a really good impression when winning a Doncaster handicap last August and he is worth one more chance today.

Lost - 3pts

3pts win SENNOCKIAN STAR 25/1 (Generally available)  John Smith's Cup

This is a below average renewal of this event containing a varying assortment of animals and Farraaj is the only one that has any potential big pretensions outside of handicap company.
Sennockian Star  catches the eye around 25's. He loves to hear his hooves rattle and his career record on going with the word 'firm' included is 412112244, with the last fourth coming when running a cracker in the Wolferton at the Royal meeting. Best just to ignore the Old Newton Cup run because with plenty in his favour from an ideal berth for his prominent racing style, he is worth support.

Lost -3pts

Saturday, 5 July 2014

3pts win SILK SARI 11/1 ( 4 firms and both exchanges) Bet 365 Lancashire Oaks

This filly came out of handicap company for the first time when running a fine race to be a close third  in a G3 over today's course and distance on an easy surface.She renews rivalry with the winner and has a prospects of reversing the form. Unraced as a juvenile, she has clearly progressed from three to four and  gives the impression that she will go on improving and indeed an achievable amount of improvement from that run will make her a force here.

Lost - 3pts

3pts win BLUE SURF 18/1 (Betfair) Bet 365 Old Newton Cup

Hasn't won since October 2012 but has run some cracking races in the interim such as a close sixth in the Ebor and ran up to his very best last time in a competitive Epsom handicap. He'll be ideally suited by the ease in the ground, his yard is in form with a couple of winners this week, and all in all appeals as one who will give a really good account of himself today.

Lost - 3pts

Saturday, 28 June 2014

3pts win GLENARD 18/1 (Betfair and Betdaq) John Smith's Northumberland Plate

Quite a few of the fancied ones ideally need a bit of give underneath and with the ground looking to be genuinely fast, some thing proven on the surface is preferable.

Glenard has enough things going for him to make him a betting proposition at the odds available. In addition to having winning form on a firm surface he has proven himself in the hustle and bustle of this sort of event by finishing fifth in the Chester Cup, doing well to weave his way through on the inside after initially starting from a wide berth. His last run can be ignored as he was tried from the front in a race run at an uneven tempo and from a nice draw today, should run a very big race.

Lost - 3pts

Saturday, 21 June 2014

1.5pts win ELHAAME 16/1( 5 firms inc Hills) Duke of Edinburgh Stakes
1.5pts win HAVANA COOLER 18/1 ( 4 frims inc Coral and L'brokes) Duke of Edinburgh Stakes

Both of Luca Cumani's runners at this meeting so far ran really well and he fields two in this with serious claims and it could pay to split stakes om both.

Elhaame has a an eye catching piece of form over C& D last September when he beat all bar Excellent Result in one of the hottest 3 year old middle distance handicaps of the year. He was clearly over the top on his one remaining run of the year and no doubt needed the run on his reappearance. He should be in good shape for this today.

Havana Cooler has not been seen since finishing third in the Melrose but won on his debut last season and the owners have traditionally had something running well at the meeting and he is unlikely to be found wanting for fitness. He looks certain to progress on what he achieved last season and appeals as one who will pay to follow blindly from now to the end of the season.

Lost - 3pts

3pts win ASTAIRE 10/1 (Generally available) Diamond Jubilee Stakes

Not the best renewal of this event and every opportunity for Astaire to provide Kevin Ryan with another major success. Last years's Gimcrack and Middle Park winner was experimented with in the Greenham before being brought back to sprint distances when he ran a cracker in the Duke of York, beaten by an animal who revels in testing ground - as it was on the day. Astaire arguably already has the overall form to just about win this year's event and that's not taking into account likely further improvement.

Lost - 3pts

Thursday, 19 June 2014

1.5pts win ODEON 16/1 (Betfair) King Edward V11 Stakes
1.5pts win SEAGULL STAR 25/1 (Generally available) King Edward V11 Stakes

Some sort of case can be made for every runner in this renewal and Odeon would be half his available odds if he'd been in one of the fashionable yards. He wasn't beaten that far in the Dante after trying to make all - the form of the race now looks stonewall solid, and though Odeon never beat much when destroying his field in a fast ground Redcar maiden on his previous run - it could well be that a sound surface will see him to best effect.

Seagull Star went into the Chester Vase with a big chance but was well beaten in the end and it's very likely that the soft ground was his undoing. He had previously ran a cracker in a valuable Newmarket sales race, giving the impression that 12f would bring about further improvement in him. There is plenty to learn about him and he could still prove to be very useful and still holds an Irish Derby entry.

Lost - 3pts

Wednesday, 18 June 2014

2pts win BROWN PANTHER 8/1 ( 3 firms inc Ladbrokes)  Ascot Gold Cup
1pt win SHWAIMAN  119/1 (Betfair) Ascot Gold Cup

The first two in the forecast have stonewall solid credentials here but they are closer matched than the betting suggests and there is every reason to believe that Brown Panther will give an excellent account of himself here. A winner here of the King George Handicap 3 years ago, he is now firmly established amongst the leading stayers and arrives here in terrific fettle. Although his two winning runs this term have been on an easy surface he is just as effective on faster ground as displayed by his good run in the Melbourne Cup and his runner up position in the St Leger, and when winning last season's Goodwood Cup. All in all, he'll never have a better chance of winning a domestic G1.

Shwaiman has a hell of alot to find on the book to win this but gives the impression that he is better than he,s shown and this distance allied to quicker ground could be the key to unlock him - the way he was staying on in the Chester Cup indicates that he'll handle the step up. He looked a horse with an interesting future when winning in eyecatching style at Doncaster last August on fast ground and often travels well in his races - as he did last time at York. Could run really well at a massive price.

Lost - 3pts

3pts win ZEE ZEELY 12/1 ( at least one firm inc Paddy Power)  King George H'cap

This colt must be on any shortlist for this. He won at Newmarket last time on his first try in handicap company, on fast ground and beating an animal who franked the form next time. Although his trainer has never won this event he excels with this type of animal in this sort of event and with plenty of further progression expected from Zee Zeely over a trip that should suit, he is the bet.

Lost - 3pts

Tuesday, 17 June 2014

1.5pts win CHIL THE KITE 18/1 (At least 2 firms including Hills)  Royal Hunt Cup
1.5pts win GABRIAL'S KAKA 22/1 (Betfair)  Royal Hunt Cup

Chil The Kite showed a good turn of foot to win a solidly contested Newbury handicap last time, looking in terrific heart and off a 5lb higher mark has a realistic chance of following up. He is equally effective over this furlong longer trip as he showed when wining over C&D in 2012. Given the rub of the green that he races in the right place from his draw in the centre, he can pay supporters.

Gabrial's Kaka looked at home in big field handicaps when taking the Newbury Spring Cup two outings back. He's 8lb higher now but also has a good turn of speed and is very much the type that Spencer excels on and has a massive chance provided his side of the course is not disadvantaged.

Lost - 3pts

Monday, 16 June 2014

2pts win KOOL COMPANY 9.5/1 (Betfair) Coventry Stakes
1pt win PORTAMENTO 14/1 (Generally available) Coventry Stakes

As wide open Coventry as you could find and there is every reason to believe Kool Company will be involved in a big way. The Hannon juveniles looks as good as ever this term and Kool Company must be near the top of their mid-season pecking order form him to be the main representative in this. He's not the type to be hyped as he as done his winning in workmanlike style - showing himself to be a battler when taking a Listed event at Naas last time. He looks to the type who'll thrive with his racing and the fact that he's done nothing flash has probably been built into his odds too much and he is worth support.

Portamento stepped up from his debut to win a Goodwood maiden in decisive fashion last time. The runner up has since gone on and taken a Newbury maiden. He's pretty hard to weigh up but looks useful at least and is worth taking aboard.

Lost - 3pts

3pts win VILLA ROYALE 16/1 ( Paddy Power)  Ascot Stakes

Michael Appleby's horses are running out of their skin at the moment and Villa Royale looks to be in with a cracking chance here. She looked better than ever, in fact an improved performer, and looking to have more to come, when winning the staying handicap at the Dante meeting. The winner of that event last year went on to take this and the mare is one to like alot here.

Lost - 3pts

Saturday, 14 June 2014

2pts win GAMESOME 16/1 ( 3 firms and both exchanges) Betbright Charity Sprint
1pt win SEE THE SUN 28/1 (Betfair)  Betbright Charity Sprint

There is still a hell of alot to learn about Gamesome but he looked more than useful when a decisive winner of a Nottingham maiden last back end, beating an animal who went on to run a close fourth in the Middle Park two runs later. He was well beaten on his seasonal debut at Newmarket but raced too keenly, looking like one who needs to be returned to sprint distances and needless to say he is one of the more interesting candidates in this.

See The Sun represents last years winning connections and shaped really well at Chester last time from a compromising draw. The ground will be alot faster today but he's proved he can handle it and he is worth a point at the odds available.

ST Sun Won +24.5pts

Friday, 6 June 2014

3pts win STARS OVER THE SEA 16/1 ( At least 2 firms inc Ladbrokes)  Investec Out Of Ordinary Stakes

One of a trio from his yard and the one that really catches the eye at double fig odds. Since winning a Nursery last August he's been in Listed/Conditions/G3 company, making him difficult to get a decent gauge on back in handicap company. In the middle one of those three runs he acquitted himself really well in the old Blue Riband Trial here in April, finishing a close third. The winner of that event has yet to reappear but the runner up, 4th,5th and 6th have all come out and run very well, giving the form a solid look. Definitely in with a serious chance here.

Lost - 3pts

3pts win GEOFFREY CHAUCER 11/1 (Betfair) Investec Derby

Australia is worth taking on at around the 6/4 mark - he ran a splendid race in the Guineas but does have plenty of pace and may just be one that leans to the speed elements of his pedigree. If that proves to be the case then Ryan Moore has an excellent chance of taking this event on the Ballydoyle second string for the second year running. Notwithstanding representatives that run in a Guineas ,the yard traditionally run their main Derby hope in the Derrinstown and though beaten in what looked a well up to standard renewal , he never had the run of the race and appealed beforehand as the one most likely to progress from the race. All in all it's hard not to see him playing a big part here.

Lost - 3pts

Saturday, 31 May 2014

3pts win SHWAIMAN 12/1 ( 3 firms,including Hills, and both exchanges) Stowe Family Law Cup

This colt looked one to follow when putting up a visually taking performance at Doncaster last August. Almost ten months on he's perhaps not got to the level that many were expecting but there is still time for him to develop into a smart performer and he has a big opportunity of taking his first listed event today. His run in the Chester Cup last time from a horror draw was very encouraging and although strictly on the weights and measures he needs to improve to win, he is arguably open to more improvement than any of today's rivals.

Lost - 3pts

3pts win LAHAAG 13/1 (Betfair and Betdaq) John Sunley Memorial H'cap

This will be Lahaag's fourth attempt at winning a 30k plus to the winner handicap and on the back of a nice comeback run at York he is very much one to consider. His other attempts at in the big handicaps have resulted in a 17th in last year's Lincoln in what with hindsight was over an unsuitably short trip, a cracking fifth in the Duke of Edinburgh, and a disappointing 21st in the November handicap when he was probably gone for the season. He's only 2 lb higher in the ratings than when wining at York in October and appeals as the value call here.

Lost - 3pts

Saturday, 24 May 2014

2pts win FIRST FLIGHT 11/1 ( 5 firms and exchanges) Betfred Silver Bowl
1pt win RED STARGAZER 14/1 ( 4 firms and exchanges) Betfred Silver Bowl

Though holding no fancy entries at the moment First Flight is one of the two or three who could make up into a Group horse and is selected on the basis that he'll come on from his Sandown reappearance. He previously finished last,though not beaten too far when tried in the Acomb which came on the back of a successful debut at Newbury. We've almost certainly yet to see the best of him and he's an interesting proposition today
Hopefully there'll be enough juice in the ground for Red Stargazer to produce his optimum. From a yard that was 2 from 3 with it's runners yesterday, he can confirm C&D form with Chatez and must enter calculations.

Lost - 3pts

Saturday, 17 May 2014

3pts win CHOPIN 10.5/1 (Betfair and Betdaq)  JLT Lockinge Stakes

This is an ordinary renewal - Olympic Glory, being a lazy type, might be lacking sharpness on his first appearance of the year and as he makes the market there are value choices on offer. Chopin came into last year's Derby looking to have stamina doubts and though on the objective figs he ran up to form he's likely to be best over shorter trips. After Royal Ascot he did not reappear until Dusseldorf in April - admittedly there is still plenty to find out about him and it's mostly subjective at the moment, but he gives the strong impression that we have yet to see the best of him but he looked a real good horse the day he won at Krefeld on his pre-Derby race. Definitely worth a go at the price.

Lost - 3pts

Saturday, 10 May 2014

3pts win ELIDOR 10/1 ( 5 firms) Carey Group Buckhounds Stakes

A winner over C&D at the Royal meeting, Elidor looked better than ever when winning up at Thirsk on his reappearance. That was his first run as a gelding and there looks to be plenty more to come. Most of his opponents have some niggly doubts hanging over them with Pether's Moon and Area Fifty One ideally wanting better ground, Harris Tweed ideally two furlongs longer, while Gatewood is hard to win with nowadays and Cap O Rushes is decidedly onepaced. All in all, Elidor looks cracking value at present odds.

Lost - 3pts

2pts win MONTBAZON 11.5/1 (Betfair)  Pertemps Network Swinton
1pt win  LOYAUTE 14/1 (Generally available) Pertemps Network Swinton

Montabazon ran an absolute cracker in a vintage renewal of the County Hurdle and although now deservedly 7lb higher in the ratings, and arriving here on the back of a poor run at Ayr, the yard has had a couple of winners in the last few days and he would not be lining up without unless connections considered there was a strong chance of him returning to his best. Although the Cheltenham run was on good ground, the race he ran in his novice season on very soft at Newbury was on the weights and measures on par with his best.

Loyaute stayed on over a longer trip last time but is fully effective over 2 mile, and the combination of trip and ground today will be ideal. That piece of form when beating subsequent Imperial Cup winner Baltimore Rock at Kempton in February on testing ground catches the eye and she's a real player here.

Lost - 3pts

Tuesday, 6 May 2014

2pts win COMMUNICATOR 10.5/1 (Betfair) Stan James Chester Cup
1pt win WATERCLOCK  31/1 (Betfair) Stan James Chester Cup

Communicator handles this track well and with his yard flying at the moment is sure to arrive here ready to run to his optimum.Though only winning twice in his career you generally win in turn in this sphere and while his running style means he'll need luck to take advantage of his low draw, if the Gods are kind to him he'll go very close to winning this.

Cesarewitch runner up Waterclock was bought in the Horses In Training Sales and moved to his new yard with this race no doubt high on the agenda. He hasen't seen action since that race but the yard has had a couple of winners recently and he's likely to be spot on. Admittedly, he hasen't the best of draws but thats factored into his odds and he's worth risking here.

Lost - 3pts

Sunday, 4 May 2014

3pts win AMRALAH 8/1 (Generally available)  Quipco Supporting British Racing Stakes

This colt beat Urban Dance and Van Percy here last Autumn, and at the time looked to have the most improvement in him of the three. The performance was more meritious than it looks on paper as he did himself no favours that day by taking a tug and the likely truer pace on today will assist. On his only outing since, also at this venue, he failed to land a blow when inconvenienced by the step down in trip.On his reappearance today his condition has to be taken on trust but connections evidently consider him as potentially a top draw performer and if that is the case then he'll take this in his stride before moving out of the handicapping ranks.

Lost - 3pts

2pts win VORDA 16/1 (Generally available) Quipco 1,000 Guineas
1pt win BETIMES  28/1 (Betfair) Quipco I,000 Guineas

In wide open renewal Cheveley Park winner Vorda catches the eye at double figs odds. She won that event fair and square and recently shaped well on her seasonal debut at Maisons - Lafitte. The only negative, and the reason for her price, is whether she'll truly get one mile. Her only attempt at the trip came in the Breeders Cup at the end of the season but that was inconclusive and she'd almost certainly gone off peak for the season. She clearly has the raw ability to take this and must make any short list.

Betimes is a complete unknown winning on an AW maiden on her only start back in December. She was visually impressive that day but the bare form does not justify her a place in the line up. However, though it's all subjective  Gosden is very unlikely to pit her in here if did not think she was capable of running a credible race and if there is to be a big surprise on the cards she is a likely candidate to cause it.

Lost - 3pts

Saturday, 3 May 2014

3pts win ROCK CHOIR 7/1 (Generally available) Qatar Racing Suffolk Stakes

This is always an interesting little handicap that often contains a few being warmed for future targets. However, you have to feel that Rock Choir will arrive here spot on. The modis operandi of the Cheverley Park operation is that the fillies that stay in training are considered able to progress to be able to win at Group level and Rock Choir could be a different proposition this term and well able to win off today's rating. Confidence is increased by the fact the yard is in red hot form at the moment - including 2 from 2 yesterday.

Lost - 3pts

3pts win TOORMORE 8/1 (Generally available - 9's with 3 firms)  QUIPCO 2,000 GUINEAS

This looks a glamorous renewal, almost too good to be true, but it would be no surprise to find in a couple of months time, when bubbles have been burst and with the benefit of hindsight, that it's not quite the race that it looks.
Toormore has not produced performances with visual impressions of Kingman or Australia,but the level of his form is on par with them and he appeals as the value call of the race. There is no knowing whether he is near the ceiling of his ability or not as he is does what is required in a professional manner and no more and he is the one who can most be relied on to run his race today. Furthermore,he does look a real miler  - Kingman is so quick that there has to be a niggling doubt about the extra furlong while Australia's optimum will surely be a couple of furlongs further.

Lost - 3pts

Saturday, 26 April 2014

2pts win GODSMEJUDGE 12/1 (Generally available) Bet 365 Gold Cup
1pt win HOUBLON DES OBEAUX 25/1 ( 6 firms including Ladbrokes and Hills) Bet 365 Gold Cup

Godsmejudge runs off the same rating as when returning to his very best last time when he went close to taking his second Scottish National. He still has only 11 runs under his belt and there could yet be some improvement to be squeezed out of him. If the Ayr run has not left his mark then he'll put in a bold show today. It's also encouraging that his yard remain in fair form.

Venetia William's yard is not in the best of form at present but Houblon Des Obeaux is of interest here and is worth a go at the odds available. He's been highly tried for most of the season in races such as the Hennessy ( respectable staying on sixth), Gold Cup, and Aintree Bowl. He won at Ascot in December off a 6lb lower mark, and ran a good race at the same venue off today's mark. The way he shaped in the Hennessy gives promise that today's trip will be ideal and he has a a realistic chance of defying top weight.

Lost - 3pts

Monday, 21 April 2014

2pts win GOLDEN WONDER 27/1 (Betfair) Boylesports Irish Grand National
1pt win HEANEY 34/1 (Betfair) Boylesports Irish Grand National

All sorts of possibilities here but with many proven only on soft or heavy ground, it's probably best to angle in by concentrating on those who are capable, or look capable of producing their optimum on today's ground.

A couple have been clipped with Tammy's Hill coming out of the race but Golden Wonder and Heaney still catch the eye at lunchtime odds. Golden Wonder was put away after November evidently for a Spring/Summer campaign and he shaped well here on his reappearance two weeks ago. With only four steeplechase races under his belt  under rules, there is still an awful lot to learn about him but he is in the right sort of yard and this race is no doubt part of a laid out plan for him.

Heaney has been off the track since December when he ran well for a long way in a very valuable Leopardstown handicap that had a few of today's runners in the field. He'd previously finished a staying on fifth to Double Seven in the Munster National and appeals as the type who will have no difficulty getting this sort of trip on today's ground.

Lost - 3pts

Saturday, 19 April 2014

2pts win BINCOMBE 7/1 (Generally available) Totescoop 6 Millionairemaker H'cap Chase
1pt win LOST LEGEND 16/1 (4 firms and exchanges) Totescoop6 Millionairemaker H'cap Chase

At a time of the year when some of the big yards are tailing off the Hobbs yard had two winners at the midweek Cheltenham meeting and the progressive Bincombe is the one they all have to beat here. He won well here last time, should have no difficulty being fully effective over the two furlong longer trip , and can defy his rise in the ratings in a race where many have threadbare credentials.

Lost Legend needs the word 'Good' in the going description to produce his optimum and has strong claims off a 7lb higher rating than his Kempton success last month when he appealed as one who had further improvement in him. His yard has had plenty of success in the past with chasers that make notable progression after intially looking to have leveled out at gaff level early in their chasing  careers and it will be interesting to see how he progresses.

Lost - 3pts

Saturday, 12 April 2014

2pts win MONTBAZEN 13/2 ( 6 firms including Coral and Hills)  QTS Scottish Champion Hdle
1pt win FLAXEN FLARE QTS 12/1 (Generally available) Scottish Champion Hdle

My Tent Or Yours is beatable giving weight away here and the alternatives that interest most are two that ran well in the County Hurdle. The form of that event has already received massive boosts by the runs of La Fontana and Diakali at Aintree and the 3rd and 5th from the race, Montbazen and Flaxen Flare have big claims to today's prize.

Monbazon was absent from the track for two years prior to his Betfair Hurdle re-appearance but the Cheltenham run confirms that he has retained all of his ability. And at a time when some of the yards are drifting out of form it was encouraging that Alan King had a winner here yesterday.

Gordon Elliot's single runner here yesterday was runner up and Flaxen Flare cannot be crossed out in this. He is 14435 in his hurdle runs when sent to the UK, all in competitive affairs, he's a pull in the weights with Montbazon, and he looks pretty sure to be thereabouts.

Lost - 3pts

2pts win MENDIP EXPRESS 15.5/1 (Betfair) Coral Scottish Grand National
1pt win MISTER MARKER 29/1 (Betfair and Betdaq) Coral Scottish Grand National

Absolutely wide open and almost all the runners have some sort of claim here.

Mendip Express is still something of an unknown sort under rules but looked a quality sort when wining three novice chases on the bounce earlier in the season, which came after winning 7 from 9 point to points. He bbv'd when pulled up when favourite against Smad Place and Sam Winner at Newbury in February and appears for the first time since. If he's back to his best today then he looks the most likely winner of this.

Mister Marker ran a cracker when 3rd in this race last year.He is 2lb higher in the ratings this year but has proven himself as good as ever this Spring and is most unlikely to be over the top. While there may not be no real reason to expect him to improve on last years run, the fact is that at this time of year more than the usual number are going to run below their best and he has a far better chance than his odds imply.

Lost - 3pts

Friday, 4 April 2014

3pts win DELL ARCA 7/1 (Generally Available))  Pertempts Mersey Novices Hdle

This likable sort has done nothing wrong since arriving from France and ran another cracker last time when a close up fifth in the Coral Cup.That was his first step up to this sort of trip - in fact a furlong further than tomorrows trip. From the way he ran the impression is that a furlong less on a flat track like this will be absolutely ideal and he's sure to make them all go.

Lost - 3pts

3pts win SIMPLY NED 14/1 (Generally available) Doom Bar Maghull Novices Hdle

For one with a relatively low profile yard, Nicky Richards has a fantastic record at this meeting down the years and everything he runs is worth a second look as his horses are rarely overfaced. At first glance Simply Ned may look to have it all to do but looking at his most recent piece of form puts him into contention.He was a close third in a Doncaster handicap off 11st 12lb - the runner up, who was receiving over a stone did the form no harm here on Thursday and Simply Ned is too tempting to avoid.

Lost - 3pts

2pts win CHANCE DU ROY 46/1 (Betfair) Crabbies Grand National
1pt win WAYWARD PRINCE 99/1 (Betfair and Betdaq) Crabbies Grand National

Chance Du Roy's connections were apparently worried about his stamina prior to the Becher but he ran on really strongly to take that in testing conditions and though this is over a mile further it's rare to find horses who see out 3m2f well and don't get the extra mile plus.He ran a fair prep at Ascot last time and though appearing to be the yard's second string, he goes best for O'Brien and has a better chance than his odds suggest.

When Wayward Prince won the 3m novice hurdle here 4 years ago you would have envisaged him having a more successful chase career than he's had. However, he's still proven himself useful and very nearly won the Charlie Hall this season. He appeals as one who could just take to this race and if so then he is massively overpriced.

Lost - 3pts

2pts win BALLYNAGOUR 7/1 (Generally available) Betfred Melling Chase
1pt win PEPITE ROSE 14/1 (Generally available) Betfred Melling Chase

This is one of the worst renewals of this event in memory and as a result it may pay to not consider the trends angles at all and look at the race from scratch.

Ballynagour looks one hell of a good horse when his ailments don't curb him and is no doubt better that the bare ratings suggest. There is still a bit of the unknown about him but he is a massive danger to all here and given the make up of this years event he appeals as a bet here.

You'd never have though Pepite Rose would be in the Melling with a realistic chance but that is very much the case here. A real Spring mare, she looked better than ever last time and should give a really good account of herself.

Lost - 3pts

2pts win MA FILLEULE 15/1 (Betfair and Betdaq)  Crabbies Topham Chase
1pt win REBEL REBELLION 23/1 (Betfair) Crabbies Topham Chase

Nine of the last ten winners of this have carried 10 st 11 lb or under but that trend could be bucked here as plenty near the top of the handicap have strong claims today.

Ma Filleule ran an absolute cracker when finishing runner up to Holywell at Cheltenham in a typical red hot handicap. She races close to the pace and there is every reason to suggest that she'll be involved in a big way here.

Rebel Rebellion won the Grand Sefton over these fences earlier in the season. That was in testing conditions as was his excellent run at Newbury last time but he is fully effective on a better surface and is a must for the short list.

Ma Filleule won + 27.5pts

2pts win STONEBROOK 6/1 (Generally available) Alder Hey H'cap Hdle
1pt win ALAIVAN 15/1 (Betfair and Betdaq) Alder Hey H'cap Hdle

The owner of these two has a terrific record in this event and there are reasons to believe that both will be involved here.

Stonebrook runs in a handicap for the first time and a degree of guesswork is required here but he looks to have been targeted at this for a few months now and could be anything - though no doubt he'll be going over fences next season.

Alaivan hasen't won for three years but  has run two crackers on his last two starts, both in better races than this. He was beaten less than six lengths when sixth in the Betfair followed by a staying on ninth to Lac Fontana in the County. This trip on this sort of track my just be what he wants nowadays -  the only over time he was tried at this trip wa s when pulled up in a G2 at Auteuil in 2010.

Lost - 3pts

Wednesday, 2 April 2014

2pts win GUITAR PETE 7.2/1 (Betfair) Injured Jockey's Fund Juvenile Hdle
1pt win HAWK HIGH 11.5/1 (Betfair) Injured Jockey's Fund Juvenile Hdle

Guitar Pete is very exposed but is holding his form remarkably well and despite the mishap to Calipto in the Triumph, the latter is by no means sure to turn the form around and stands at at nearly double the odds. Sure to figure in the shake up.

Fred Winter winner Hawk High is not one to rule out. The owner likes to have winners here more than anywhere else and it'll only take a couple to run below par to put him bang in here, and that's not taking into account that he may now be on the upgrade quickly.

Guitar Pete won + 13pts

3pts win DIAKALI 10/1 (4 firms including Ladbrokes) Doom Bar Aintree Hdle

Not as in depth as is the norm for this race but if The New One has left something behind at Cheltenham then Diakali could be good enough to take advantage. He ran a cracker in his chosen Cheltenham race and will be better suited by the longer trip here. It's hard to see Ptit Zig turning around the Auteuil from last June and though that was in the mud Diakali is also fully effective on better ground - in fact on the weights and measures his run last time was a career best.

Lost - 3pts

3pts win TURN OVER SIVOLA 8.8/1 (Betfair) Silver Cross Red Rum H'cap Chase

Though still to get his head infront over fences, Turn Over Sivola looks a likely winner of this. He acquitted himself well against a couple of smart novices on his first two runs and has since run in handicaps, the best performance coming last time and though he's up 4lb in the ratings for that run, he appeals as the sort that his trainer will get the best from in the sort of event that he shines in.

Lost - 3pts

1.5pts win DOCTOR HARPER 13/1 (Betfair) Dominican Republic H'cap Hdle
1.5pts win ON THE BRIDGE 17.5/1 (Betfair) Dominican Republic H'cap Hdle

Three mile on decent ground should be ideal for Doctor Harper who should make a big impact in the novice chase ranks next season. His yard remains in very good form and won this event three years back and has no real negatives hanging over him here.

At the age of nine On The Bridge looks better than ever and ran an absolute cracker in the Pertempts Final last time when not getting the rub of the green. There did not appear to be any fluke about that performance - indeed he has shown himself a much improved individual during this season and as he races off the same mark here he must make the shortlist.

D' Harpet won + 17pts

Saturday, 15 March 2014

2pts win SUN CLOUD 7/1 (Generally available) Betfred Midlands Grand National
1pt win ALFIE SPINNER 33/1 (Generally available) Betfred Midlands Grand National

A progressive staying handicap chase with just six races over fences under his belt, Sun Cloud is just the sort that Malcolm Jefferson gets the best out of and he is a likely winner of this. After two ready style victories where he looked to have got his jumping together, he fell when beginning to take closer order in the Eider. Hopefully there won't be any repeat of that and he can carry on where he'd left off previously.

Alfie Spinner hasn't won since 14 starts and 27 months ago but the level of form he has shown this season indicates that all the ability is still there. The only time today's rider has been aboard was when he ran a cracker at Sandown in December and he looks very much set to outrun his odds.

Lost - 3pts

Thursday, 13 March 2014

1.5pts win PEARL CASTLE 11.5/1 (Betfair) JCB Triumph Hdle
1.5pts win TIGER ROLL 11/1 (Betfair and Betdaq) JCB Triumph Hdle

Pearl Castle has a serious chance of giving John Quinn his second winner of this event in three runnings. A lightly raced but useful handicapper on the level when he preferred decent ground, he's took really well to hurdles and is certainly a good deal better than bare form of his last two wins suggests. He's sure to be travelling strongly behind the leaders and is worth taking aboard.

Tiger Roll made a mistake as he came to challenge Guitar Pete in a G1 at Leopardstown last month, with Plinth behind in third. He appeals as the one who will eventually turn out the better of the three and a big run is expected here.

T. Roll won + 14.5pts

1.5pts win CHELTENIAN 9/1(Hills, Betfred, and both Exchanges) Vincent O'Brien County Hdle
1.5pts win MINELLA FORU 11.5/1 (Betfair and Betdaq) Vincent O'Brien County Hdle

Former Champion Bumper winner Cheltenian and give Phillip Hobbs another winner at the meeting. He was off the track for two years but has returned to start his hurdle career and looks to have retained all the ability. The drier surface looks ideal for him and he looks sure to figure in a big way.

Minella Foru looks to have been laid out for this and must make the short list. The animal he beat at Navan in November is pretty  useful in his own right and he had decent horses all around him when given a proper prep for this last time in a G2. Connections appear to think a bit of him and he's impossible to leave out of calculations.

Lost - 3pts

3pts win TRIOLO D'ALENE 13/1 (Betfair and Betdaq) Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup

Bob's Worth looked a well up to standard winner of this last year but history shows how hard it is for them to repeat and he did have one hell of a hard race in the Lexus which was in contrast to him arriving here last year fresh from a break following his Hennessy success, while though it's not conclusive, Silviniaco Conti gives the impression that he's best on a flatter track than this.First Lieutenant should run OK but is very exposed and is not going to suddenly improve, and this then leaves Last Instalment and Triolo D'Alene - the only two others with realistic chances.

Like Bob's Worth last year  Triolo D'Alene arrives here fresh from a break after a convincing Hennessey success, beating the progressive and talented Rocky Creek. On the bare form he still has plenty to find but he appears to be on the upgrade very fast and you would not have envisaged him as a Hennessey winner last Spring, even after he'd won the Topham. He is the value call here.

Lost - 3pts

2pts win NEXT SENSATION 7.6/1 (Betfair and Betdaq) Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase
1pt win DARE ME 25/1 (4 firms and both Exchanges) Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase

Next Sensation is 9lb higher in the ratings from last time but is in terrific nick at the moment and they may not be able to stop him here even though this is by far his stiffest task so far. The upturn in his career has come suddenly and it would not be a total shock if he ran up his mark to the point where he ends up tackling  graded two mile races next season.

Dare Me has not turned out the horse he promised to be in his Bumper days but still looked cheap when going for £10,000 in May 2012. He was quite impressive to the eye last time looking as though he'd win more races and though that was in the mud, them runs in the Cheltenham and Aintree Bumpers, though now some time back, came on a sound surface. Worth a go at the price.

Lost - 3pts

Wednesday, 12 March 2014

2pts win DOUBLE ROSS 14/1 (Generally available) JLT Novices Chase
1pt win OFF THE GROUND 26/1 (Betfair) JLT Novices Chase

This is wide open and it may be worth chancing a couple who have realistic claims despite the fact that they would have been better off if the race was a handicap.

Double Ross is already a proven hardy sort for a novice and won the old Massey Ferguson back here in December. He's run well in his two races since - again, both at this venue and lines up after a short break. Is very appealing at the price despite having it to do strictly on weights and measures.

Off The Ground has got his act together over fences recently and is ideally suited by Good ground. This is a big step up in grade but he could surprise.

Lost - 3pts

1.5pts win UNCLE JIMMY 23/1 (Betfair) Pertemps Network Final
1.5pts win CROWNING JEWEL 25/1 (Betfair) Pertemps Network Final

Uncle Jimmy looks on the upgrade and can confirm last time out Warwick form with Grand Vision. He had previously run a cracker here on ground that he will encounter tomorrow and should not be overlooked despite his yard appearing to have better fancied prospects in the race.

Prior to the run here, Uncle Jimmy had been third to Crowning Jewel at Aintree. With the Keith Reveley yard continuing in good form, the latter has strong claims in his own right. Conditions will be ideal for him with all five victories having the word 'Good' in the going description.

Lost - 3pts

1.5pts win BALLYNAGOUR 16/1 (Betfair) Bryne Group Plate
1.5pts win THIRD INTENTION 14/1 ( Corals, PPower,Bet 365 and both exchanges) Bryne Group Plate

Ballynagour is clearly difficult to train but he was supported here in the Paddy Power as though he was much better than his present handicap mark. He appears for the first time since, the said handicap rating still protected, and in the hope that his problems have been sorted out he is worth support.

Third Intention has bags of ability but often finds something to beat him. This scenario of a big field, fast run race on Good ground may suit him as he travels well and if the cards fall right he has a serious chance.

Ballynagour won + 21pts

Tuesday, 11 March 2014

3pts win ROYAL BOY 7/1 ( Ladbrokes, Corals, both Exchanges) Neptune Investment Novices Hdle

Red Sherlock seems to have a bit of character and could be a lot better than the already high level of form he's shown - which he'd need to be as we can be sure that the horse he beat,Rathvinden, is rated inferior to stable companion Faugheen. However, Royal Boy could be a match for all of them and is the most appealing bet here. Confidence is increased by the way the two Henderson horses ran in the Supreme Novices earlier today, including the animal Royal Boy beat at Kempton. At this stage he could still be anything but has proven himself a talented novice and provided he goes on this faster surface ( was beaten too far for the surface to be the cause on his only run on good ground) he'll be thereabouts.

Non Runner

3pts win BALLYCASEY 6/1 ( 2 firms inc Betfred and both Exchanges) RSA Chase

This is top heavy with horses who are proven on no other surface than very soft and the couple at attractive odds who like Spring ground are probably not good enough. Ballycasey is the only real contender with a first rate chance on the book who is capable of running to his optimum on this sort of surface - in fact he may prove to be better on it. He has no real question marks against him here and taking everything into account is more reasonably priced than may first appear.

Lost - 3pts

3pts win CAPTAIN CONAN 5/1 ( Hills, Corals, both Exchanges) Bet Victor Queen Mother Champion Chase

This tremendously likeable individual can have his first big day tomorrow. Always looking one made for the big time he seems to be a real spring horse. Arriving here fresh after a three month absence and certain improvement left in him, he has a seriuos chance of turning around the last race form with Sire De Grugy who he beat at this venue earlier last season.

Lost - 3pts

Monday, 10 March 2014

3pts win IRVING 7/2 (Betfair and Betdaq) Sky Bet Supreme Novices Hdle

This could be a vintage renewal of this event and it's not hard to envisage a couple of these returning here as leading hopes for next years Champion Hurdle - it's now 10 years since the winner of this has gone on to take that race.

There has been mixed vibes in the market over Vatours over the past couple of weeks and ideally he might want genuine Winter ground while you feel Vaniteux would have had better claims in one of the longer novice events.

On the other hand, Irving looks absolutely the real deal and it's hard to put anything ahead of him in preference, even taking the price into consideration - especially as connections are adamant that he's best on the sort of surface he'll encounter tomorrow. He''s likely to jump more fluently with a solid pace on and is sure to take all the beating.

Lost - 3pts

2pts win DODGING BULLETS 6/1 (P Power) Racing Post Arkle Chase
1pt win VALDEZ 10/1 ( P Power and Stan James) Racing Post Arkle Chase

Dodging Bullets has massive points in his favour and looks a ready made winner of this. He travels, holds his position, jumps at pace ,is proven around here and is best on Good ground.. He also has the raw ability to beat these and it will be a shock if he does not figure in a big way.

Valdez has took really well to fences and is unbeaten in all three starts. There looks to be an incalculable amount more to come and he is a contender at eye catching odds.

Lost - 3pts

3pts win SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR  3.8/1 (Betfair)Terry Biddlecombe National Hunt Chase

This gelding looks very much to have been plotted out for this by connections with a fine record in the race. The best has certainly yet to be seen of him over fences and he looks the type who will find a niche for himself in the valuable marathon events. Impossible to leave him out here as he's sure to give an excellent account of himself.

Lost - 3pts

Saturday, 8 March 2014

1.5pts win BALTIMORE ROCK 7.6/1 (Betfair) William Hill Imperial Cup
1.5pts win SWING BOWLER 8.6/1(Betfair) William Hill Imperial Cup

Two or three that would have made the short list are very weak on the exchanges this morning and the best policy may be to split stakes on the two David Pipe horses who both have solid chances.

Baltimore Rock is going to eventually reach a ceiling higher than his present 125. He'll like today's conditions and the form of his win last time has been given a boost by the third home. There is  mo reason why he should not figure in what is no more than an average renewal of this event.

Swing Bowler is not really a second string as she does not appear to be Scudamore's ride and indeed she goes well for today's pilot. She ran a cracker in the Betfair on her reappearance and though her mark has gone up further it does not flatter her and unless something turns out with hindsight to be thrown in ( such as her stable companion), then she is sure to give an excellent account of herself.

B. Rock Won + 9.5pts

Saturday, 1 March 2014

3pts win NIGHT IN MILAN 15.5/1 (Betfair) William Hill Grimthorpe Chase

A case of some sort can be made out for every runner here and Night In Milan very much catches the eye at the price. The Reveley family have traditional done well at this venue and Night In Milan has run two crackers here in four attempts, winning one of them last December. He looked as good as ever that day and a 6lb difference may not curb him if he turns up in that sort of form again. His last run, also here, can be ignored as the ground was probably unsuitably soft for him and a few of the fancied ones ran stinkers in that event.He lines up here with the same sort of chance he had last year ( he fell early) but at double the odds and is worth support.

Won + 45pts

Saturday, 22 February 2014

3pts win STANDING OVATION  9/1(Generally available)  Betbright Chase

Not the race of old and if there is a horse in the race who could develop into something better than a handicapper it could only be Standing Ovation. Despite being below par last time he still retains an overall progressive profile but appears to require a right handed circuit to run to his optimum. Indeed, his below par effort at Cheltenham last time was very likely more due to this than finding his revised mark too high. Back to ruuning clockwise, and with the yard in healthy form, he has a fine chance of returning to winning form today.

Lost - 3pts

Saturday, 15 February 2014

1.5pts win HAWKES POINT 9/1 (Betfair and Betdaq) Betfred Grand National Trail
1.5pts win EMPEROR'S CHOICE 10/1 (Generally available) Betfred Grand National Trial

There's still more to learn about Our Father and it's possible that he could be a bit better than these- however, he's short enough here. especially considering he may not really want 'Haydock heavy'.

Hawkes's Point is 6lb higher in the ratings than when narrowly failing to win the Welsh National. He had a hard race that day but if he arrives here in the same sort of form, he'll relish this test and would be the one they have to beat.

Venetia Williams's horses continue in cracking form and Emperor's Choice reappears under a 5lb penalty after a convincing success in a valuable Ffos Los event. He too will relish this gruelling slog and is hard to put a line through.

Lost - 3pts

Saturday, 8 February 2014

3pts win DELL' ARCA 8/1 ( 6 firms and both Exchanges)  Betfair Hurdle

The Pipe yard is in good nick at the moment and Dell' Arca looks a very likely winner of this event. He hit the ground running when arriving from France in winning the Greatwood - looking to have all possibilities for the future that day. He then unseated at Ascot before he'd been asked for his effort. He's off an 8lb higher mark than the Greatwood today but there is no knowing his ceiling and as he should find the ground poses no problems is definitely worthy of support.

Lost - 3pts

Saturday, 1 February 2014

2pts win DE LA BECH 7/1 (Generally available)  Burns Pet Nutrition West Wales National
1pt win BOB FORD 13/1 (Betfair)  Burns Pet Nutrition  West Wales National

With only five races under his belt over fences De La Bech has more improvement in him than most of these and will find today's testing conditions ideal. His poor performance last time needs to be forgiven but the Hobbs yard is in healthy form at the moment and he appeals as the most likely winner here.

Locally trained Bob Ford is two from three at this venue, all in similar conditions to todays. He too is lightly raced over fences and open to plenty more improvement. Similarly again with De La Bech, Bob Ford was below par last time when starting favourite at Haydock but it would be no surprise if he returned to his very best today.

Lost - 3pts

Saturday, 25 January 2014

1.5pts win CEDRE BLEU 7.4/1 (Betfair and Betdaq) Freebets Trophy Chase
1.5pts win TAP NIGHT 8/1  (Generally available) Freebets Trophy Chase

Cedre Bleu saves plenty for himself but his type win in turn when all falls right and is fair value today at 7/1 + as he looks sure to come there travelling as the race hots up. The pull in the weights with Double Ross may not be a deciding factor but it does no harm nor does the ground changing to heavy.

Tap Night will not be hindered by testing conditions and having dropped in the ratings after two moderate efforts, looks to have a real opportunity if returning to the the level of form that saw him chase home Captain Conan at Aintree in the Spring.

Lost - 3pts

Saturday, 18 January 2014

3pts win SYDNEY PAGET 7.6/1 (Betfair and Betdaq)  Peter Marsh Chase

This horse still retains a positively progressive profile despite fading tamely at Wetherby last time. It may pay to forgive that performance as he had previously created a fine impression when visually impressive over today's course and distance, looking the sort with any amount of improvement left in him. The testing conditions will be ideal for him and a 10lb higher rating than that last victory will not be enough to stop him if he is in the same sort of form here.

Lost - 3pts

Saturday, 11 January 2014

2pts win VESPER BELL 8/1 (Generally available) Betfred Classic Chase
1pt win SAME DIFFERENCE 16/1 (Generally available) Betfred Classic Chase

It's hard to overlook the stonewall solid claims of Vesper Bell here. He's only 4lb higher in the ratings than when running a career best over fences in the Spring, revels in extreme testing conditions, has bags of staminia, and still has further improvement left in him. His yard is in cracking form and he looks sure to figure in a big way.

Samedifference had Vesper Bell back in seventh winning winning the Kim Muir last season. He then ran a blinder to finish runner up in the old Whitbread ( off the same rating as he runs off today), and wasen't entirely disgraced in the Hennessy last time. The worry is that he is unproven on this sort of ground but if he adapts he will be a threat to all here.

Lost - 3pts