Saturday, 26 October 2013

3pts win NICHOLASCOPERNICUS 5/1 (Generally available)  Racing Post Mobile App H'cap

This gelding appealed as one who would improve further this year and continue to win races and plenty has come right for him here. Lightly raced this term, he returned to form at York last time in a race of similar quality to this and with today's soft ground being ideal, he has a cracking chance off a 2lb higher rating. There are no negatives at all and he is sure to run a big race.

Lost - 3pts

1.5pts win KAYLIF ARAMIS 9/1 ( 3 firms and exchanges) Totequickpick Silver Trophy
1.5pts win LAMB OR COD 10/1 ( 3 firms including Ladbrokes & Betfred)  Totequickpick Silver Trophy

Probably only an average renewal of this event but hard to resist getting involved in.

The Twiston-Davies yard is having it's customary good Autumn spell and Kaylif Aramis should be fit enough to run to his optimum here. He is proven on this heavy ground, is open to plenty more improvement and could be in for as lucrative career as his full brother.

Philip Hobbs has won this event three times in the last ten years including with Lamb Or Cod last year. Like today, the gelding had been off the track since the previous Winter when lining up last year and with the yard being in fair form there are reasons to believe that he will put his two subsequent disappointing runs behind him and return to form.

Lost - 3pts

Saturday, 19 October 2013

3pts win TARTAK 14/1 ( Ladbrokes and Corals) Equus Fine Dining H'cap Chase

This likeable character has not won for nearly three years and is not the horse he was at his peak. However, he does retain plenty of ability, certainly enough to prove competitive enough of the rating he races off today and is an interesting proposition on his first run for Victor Dartnall. Though in his prime he ran his career bests at Aintree's Midmay course his best run last term was at this venue and his last victory was here. There is nothing to be over scared of here and he is very likely to give a good account of himself today.

Lost - 3pts

3pts win TOP NOTCH TONTO 16/1 (Generally available)  Queen Elizabeth 11 Stakes

This rapidly improving gelding has a big chance of sealing the biggest rags to riches success in recent years by taking this G1 event. Some of today's rivals will have gone over the top for the season -there is a doubt whether  Dawn Approach can reproduce his best form , Olympic Glory is tried in blinds after an unsatisfactory performance last time, while Soft Falling Rain, though high class, has not really lived up to the hype since coming here. Maxios has stonewall solid claims but is priced up accordingly and a few of his rivals ran below par at Longchamp the other week. This brings the attention back to Top Notch Tonto who beat a good,consistent yardstick last time. He goes well in the soft, looks as though he'll keep on improving and connections have spent alot to supplement him for this. He looks set to run a big race.

Lost - 3pts

Saturday, 12 October 2013

2pts win DOMINATION 12/1 (Betfair and Betdaq) Betfred Cesarewitch
1pt win SIGN MANUAL 150/1 (Betfair and Betdaq)  Betfred Cesarewitch

Domination is an admirably versatile gelding who is not afraid of getting his head infront. He won the trial for this event here last year in authoritative style but but had not been put in this. His rating is now over a stone higher but he ran a cracker in a valuable Galway handicap in July and should be able to be competitive off his mark today. He arrives here on the back of two wins over hurdles - both at the time career bests in that sphere - and with a friendly draw it is hard to find any real negatives about his chance.

Royal runner Sign Manual is worth small stakes at massive exchange odds - which themselves hardly inspire confidence. However, when he beat Lieutenant Miller at Newbury on similar ground to todays back in the Spring, it would not have been hard to envisage him bagging a big staying handicap. He has disappointed in his four races since but there is still time to get back on track and Bells's yard is in cracking form at the moment.

Lost - 3pts

Saturday, 5 October 2013

1.5 pts win BERTIEWHITTLE 12/1 ( 4 firms and Exchanges)  Betfred Goals Galore Challenge Cup
1.5pts win HEAVEN'S GUEST 16/1 ( 5 firms and Exchanges) Betfred Goals Galore Challenge Cup

Horses with all sorts of profiles have won this in the past so there's no need to be shackled by something on a roll. The exposed Bertiewhittle just wins in turn, hasen't won for over two years, and has a better fancied stable companion in the race. However there are enough reasons to suggest that he'll go well today. He's now as good as he's ever been, he acts on soft ground, he goes well over this course and distance and has run arguably his best ever race here, and Spencer is a positive in this sort of race and has an excellent record for the yard.

Heaven's Guest likewise runs well on a soft surface and ran a cracker in the Ayr Gold Cup the other week and runs off the same rating today with the promising claimer keeping the ride.The only niggly doubt is that though he's won over this trip on an easy surface, proper soft on this track may just question his staminia. Nevertheless, there's more still to learn about him and he's open to plenty of further improvement and is worth support at the odds available.

H'vns Guest Won  + 22.5pts

3pts win INTELLO 10/1 (Generally available) Qatar Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe

This looks to be a better renewal than last year's race though overall no better than average - particularly with the withdrawal of Novellist.

Orfevre will surely be involved but is priced up accordingly and whoever wins this year will have to have produced a better performance than that by last year's winner. Treve has done nothing wrong, looks very exciting, but has not been helped by the draw and is plenty short enough. The feeling on the day was that the Prix Niel did not contain the winner of this event while St Leger Leading Light will certainly lack the toe to win this. This brings the attention to Intello who remains an exciting individual and who is held in the highest regard by Fabre. He's the only one in this field quick enough to be a force in top company over a mile and visually gives the impression he'll get this trip - the furthest he's proven over is a furlong and a half less when winning the Prix Du Jockey Club. At the prices, he makes the most appeal and is hard to leave out.

Lost - 3pts