Saturday, 29 June 2013

 2pts win ARCH VILLAIN 15.5/1 (Betfair) John Smith's Northumberland Plate  1pt win NOBLE ALAN  27/1 (Betfair)John Smith's Northumberland

Absolutely wide open but hard to resist getting involved and the progressive Arch Villain has as good as claim as most. Two miles with some give seems ideal for him, he's on a roll at the moment, knows how to get his head infront, and is from a yard that has won this event in the past. Admittedly he'll have to improve again to keep ahead of the handicapper but his type are preferred over something on the downgrade that has been dropped considerably by the assessor.

Nicky Richard's Noble Alan , despite being a ten year old, is still unexposed on the level and is not without a chance. A hurdler/chaser with a touch of quality about him he ran a cracker at Ascot last time and the yard is not known for overfacing it's animals.

Lost - 3pts

Friday, 21 June 2013

2pts win DUKE OF FIRENZE 8/1 (Betfair and Betdaq) Wokingham
1pt win YORK GLORY 16/1 (Ladbrokes and Betdaq) Wokingham

Duke of Firenze stormed through in impressive fashion to win the Dash at Epsom, giving the impression that his career may be about to climb up onto another tier. He moves from a very sharp five furlongs up to six here but that should not be a hindrance as his best run last season was over six at Newmarket. It is not hard to visualise  him lining up in a Group 1 later in the season and he must be supported to defy a 5lb penalty here.

Duke of Firenze had previously not got the rub of the green in the handicap at York won by Kingsgates Choice. That form has also received a boost by the winner following up in another valuable sprint which means York Glory, runner up in the York race, merits serious consideration here. This is the type of animal that Kevin Ryan does best with and the stable has already had a winner at the meeting.

York Glory won + 14pts

2pts win CARAVAN ROLLS ON 8/1 (Generally available) Duke of Edinburgh
1pt win LAHAAG 10/1 (Generally available) Duke of Edinburgh

Although he is stepping down in trip, Caravan Rolls On does not lack pace as demonstrated when he showed a good turn of foot to win over this course and distance last September. He shaped really well on his seasonal debut at Newmarket and it seems pretty clear that this event has been targeted for him before the season began.

John Gosden's Lahaag has solid credentials for this. Very much the type the trainer gets the best out of, he ran a cracker on his seasonal debut when just held off by First Mohican in a competitive York handicap. He tries twelve furlongs for the first time, and connections must be pretty sure that it will be be to his advantage as there are no shortage of valuable ten furlong handicaps around.

Lost - 3pts

1.5pts win NO HERETIC 8/1 (Betfair) Queen Alexandra
1.5pts win COURTESY CALL 9.5/1 (Betfair) Queen Alexandra

A fascinating if not a little bit of a gimmicky event and No Heretic is a mighty interesting contender here. As shown at Doncaster last September, he stays two miles - though his two runs this season have been over shorter where has has run two career bests, both times when runner up in valuable Newmarket handicaps. This is all a bit of an unknown but he has a touch of quality about him, is open to further improvement, and has as strong a claim as anything else here,

Courtesy Call left Mark Johnston's yard to go jumping and was last seen when winning a hurdle event at the beginning of last month. Nicky Henderson does well in these staying races on the level and this gelding whose best piece of form on the level was when second in a valuable Cesarewitch trial, could return to an improved performer here and it's hard to dismiss him from calculations.

Lost - 3pts

1.5pts win  MUTASHADED 9/1 (Hills) King Edward V11 Stakes
1.5pts win HILLSTAR  9/1 (Ladbrokes and both exchanges)King Edward V11 Stakes

Though it looked a decent renewal of the Derby going into it, the aftermatch left a feeling that it was pretty ordinary and Battle of Marengo is worth taking on here.

It's all guesswork with Mutashaded. He looked better than a handicapper when winning a Sandown handicap last time but there is no solid substance to back that up - his OR is still only 88. However, the option was open to connections to run up his handicap mark and it is significant that he is pitted straight into a Group 2.

The Stoute horses are running well at the moment and Hillstar, runner up in two Newmarket Spring handicaps, is interesting stepped up to this trip for the first time. His half sister Crystal Capella improved over two stone throughout her three year old year and there is still plenty of time for Hillstar to develop into a smart performer.

Hillstar won + 12pts

3pts win SKY LANTERN 5/1 (Generally available) Coronation Stakes

This likeable filly won the 1,000 Guineans fair and square on the day and there is no reason for her to be longer than the runner up Just The Judge, who did not need to improve to win at the Curragh.  There is no reason for Sky Lantern to have gone backwards in the meantime and she is the one to beat in a race normally won by already proven Group 1 winners.

Won + 15pts

3pts win ROYAL SKIES 11/1 (Generally available) Queens Vase

It is impossible to ignore the Mark Johnston runners given his record in this event and at this moment in time the exchanges seem to indicate that this colt is more fancied than Mister Impatience. Royal Skies has had quite a lot of racing for a runner in this event and although he beat only one other runner last time, he had previously looked as though he was rapidly on the upgrade when storming away with a Pontefract handicap. Stepped up in trip today, further improvement is forthcoming and he's sure to run well.

Lost - 3pts

3pts win ENROL  7/1 (Corals, Betfred and both exchanges) Buckingham Palace Stakes

It's been profitable down the years to follow fillies kept in training after three who are in the hands of the Cheverley Park Stud operation. Most progress notably from handicappers to genuine Group performers and Enrol's present mark of 93 is certain to be some way off her eventual ceiling. Stepped back up in trip, racing against the rails, she is sure to give a very good account of herself in a very tricky affair.

Lost - 3pts

Wednesday, 19 June 2013

3pts win COULSTY 7/1 ( Betfair and Betdaq) Norfolk Stakes

This is a really interesting renewal of this event and cases can be made for many of the runners. All in all though, Coulsty catches the eye at the odds available and he can get Richard Hannon off the mark for the meeting. He was very impressive when winning his only outing at Leicester and the visual impression that he was very smart has since been backed up with the form of the event starting to work out well. It is difficult to overlook him here.

Lost - 3pts

1.5pts win TOP TRIP 20/1 ( 3 firms) Ascot Gold Cup
1.5pts win EARL OF TINSDALL 16/1 ( Generally available)) Ascot Gold Cup

Top Trip was a very useful three year old, running well in both the French Derby and Grand Prix De Paris, after winning a hotly contested Group 2 event. He has gone down the stayers path this year and ran a blinder when just touched off in the Yorkshire Cup. He steps further up in trip here and if that proves to be to his advantage he'll go close at a big price.

Earl of Tinsdall was third behind his stable companion Altano at Hoppegarten last time after making a sudden dash for home three furlongs out. They re-oppose here and  Earl of Tinsdall, who started a warm favorite that day, has the overall better form and can turn the form around here.He races prominently and should outrun his odds and give a very good account of himself. Not to be underestimated.

Lost - 3pts

1.5pts win EXCELLENT RESULT 15.5/1 (Betfair) King George V Stakes
1.5pts win SPACE SHIP  16/1 (Generally available) King George V Stakes

Excellent Result destroyed his field when winning a Sandown maiden last time. The runner up  had some half decent form in the bag and has since gone on and finished second in a Newmarket handicap. Godolphin do better than most with there mid season three year old maiden winners and this colt could still be anything and is one to have on your side here.

After losing his maiden tag at the Chester May meeting, Space Ship never got the rub of the green in an Epsom handicap last time and he is worth another chance as he gave the impression at Chester was that there was plenty of further progression left in him.

 Lost - 3pts

Tuesday, 18 June 2013

2pts win STIRRING BALLAD 10/1 (Betfair) Royal Hunt Cup
1pt win TRADE COMMISSIONER 15.5/1 (Betfair) Royal Hunt Cup

Stirring Ballad looks a very feasible winner of this. She progressed throughout last Summer reeling off four wins in a row and has returned to the course looking as good as ever and promising to win one of these valuable handicaps. She had a nice prep for this last time behind Burke's Rock at Goodwood and is the one to beat here.

Trade Commissioner looked potentially pretty smart during the middle of last season and though he found the step up to Group company beyond him last Autumn, he is lightly raced for one of his age and promises to make  an even better five year old. Lack of a run will not hinder - he'll be spot on for this marquee fixture and it's worth noting that Gosden won the Eclipse first time out with the same owners Nathaniel in 2011.

Lost - 3pts

3pts win RIZEENA 13/2 ( 3 firms and Exchanges) Queen Mary Stakes

Rizeena looks the best two year old filly seen out so fat this season and can confirm it by winning this. The three animals that followed her home in the National Stakes last time all look very useful sorts themselves and this, backed up by visual impression, give her stonewall solid credentials here.

Won  +19.5pts

Monday, 17 June 2013

3pts win MAGICIAN 2.6/1 (Betfair) St James Palace Stakes

There's no knowing what effect the dramatic Derby experience will have on Dawn Approach, appearing again very quickly in a completely different scenario and the Irish 2,000 Gns victor Magician is much preferred here.  He looked real champion miler material that day and is fairly priced considering this looks a match.

Lost - 3pts

3pts win CHAMPIONSHIP 6/1 ( Hills and Betfair)) Coventry Stakes

This colt looked the real deal to the eye when winning a Newbury maiden on his only start and is clearly much better than he is able to be rated in pounds and lengths. That feeling is endorsed by Richard Hughes being aboard here rather than side with the impressive Woodcote winner Thunder Strike. Despite the strong Ballydoyle challenge Championship is the one to beat here and is sure to give a very good account of himself.

Lost - 3pts

2pts win MUBARAZA 11/1 ( 3 firms and Betfair)) Ascot Stakes
1pt win SURAJ  20/1 (Betfair) Ascot Stakes

Mubaraza looks a real gritty sort as demonstrated by the second of his two Newmarket wins last season, when strongly supported. He appealed as one who would improve further over trips in excess of two miles and that impression was repeated when he finished third behind Tiger Cliff last time. He is a mighty interesting contender here.

Suraj never got into the Chester Cup on his seasonal debut. He is relatively lightly raced and looks very much the type to make notable improvement as a four year old and his present odds catch the eye.

Lost - 3pts

Saturday, 15 June 2013

2pts win RIVELLINO 10/1 (Generally available) Macmillan Charity Sprint Trophy
1pt win CHILWORTH ICON 18/1 (Betfair) Macmillan Charity Sprint Trophy

The competitive Newmarket handicap won by Hasopopp has a significant role to play in this. Rivellino went in to that race looking a progressive sort who would play a big role in that event but as can be typical of this sort of event, he never got the gaps and the run can be safely ignored. His yard remains in very good form and he is worth another chance today.

Chilworth Icon ran a fine race to be third in that event. Although more exposed than most, he showed that the mark the handicapper allotted to him allowed him to be competitive and upped just 1lb in the ratings for that run, he is a serious players here and catches the eye from the value angle.

Lost - 3pts

Saturday, 1 June 2013

1.5pts win RULER OF THE WORLD 9/1 (Generally available) Investec Derby
1.5pts win CHOPIN  12/1 (Generally available) Investec Derby

This is all about Dawn Approach, who looked a cracking good 2,000 GNS winner, and clearly the winner here if just as effective over this trip. It is however going in to the unknown and with a host of interesting rivals in what looks a decent renewal, he could be worth taking on at his price.

On the bare form Ruler Of The World beat a horse in the Chester Vase who was beaten just as far in a handicap on his next outing. That hardly inspires confidence but the runner up is a typical in and out Mark Johnston performer and measuring Ruler Of The World by the third Havana Beat, and the other runner, a promising Gosden colt, make the form look alot better. Added to this is the overall impression he created that day was very favourable and he looks sure to give a good account of himself.

Danedream reminded us in the past few years not to underestimate the quality of the German horses and the chance of Chopin should be taken very seriously. He looks a very exciting prospect and destroyed a good field at Krefeld last time, the runner up having previously finished second in the German 2,000 Gns. He is not 100% certain to stay on pedigree but his stamina is worth chancing at the price.

Ruler of the World won + 12pts