Saturday, 30 March 2013

3pts win CLOUDY TOO 12/1 (Betfair) Bet Victor Levy Board Chase

Tony Star and Pepite Rose were the first two to look at here and are both overlooked; the former being very weak on the exchanges and the latter short enough on the back of her fall. Of the others Cloudy Too catches the eye. He disposed of Ohio Gold in good style in February here, and can confirm the form on worse terms. That race was in testing conditions but Cloudy Too can produce on a better surface and has a serious chance of defying his weight despite the yard being a bit quiet recently.

Lost - 3pts

Saturday, 16 March 2013

3pts win CARRUTHERS 13.5/1 (Betfair)  Betfred Midlands Grand National

On the face of it this admirable character faces a daunting task. The mark he races off is his highest since after he won the Hennessey. Added to that he had a gruelling race last time and is 5lb higher in the ratings than that event. However, in such extreme conditions, as will be the case today, the ability to run to the optimum in them far outweights weights and measures. Two decent sorts followed him home last time followed by a quite promising unexposed sort. If in the same hear again he'll be a major force for this and it is futile trying to look for negatives in the fact that something may take him on from the front - at double figure odds not everything will fit cosily into the picture.

Lost - 3pts

Friday, 15 March 2013

3pts win FAR WEST JCB 5/1 (Betfair and Betdaq) Triumph Hdle

Although more confidence would have been gained had his Ascot victim River Maguire finished a bit closer in the Supreme Novices, that is not reason enough to take on Far West. He's  hard to fault, winning his four races in the UK, beating some decent juveniles in the process, and winning two of them around here

Lost - 3pts

2pts win IFANDBUTWHYNOT 10/1 (Generally available) Vincent O'Brien County Hdle
1pt win OLOFI  24/1(Betfair) Vincent O'Brien County Hdle

Lots of positives for Ifandbutwhynot here. Hailing from a shrewd yard, he travels well in his races, quickens, had won around here, is in top form and undoubtedly still improving.

Olofi has had a break since December. That will be to his advantage as he goes well fresh. He tend to run to his best at this venue and won the valuable handicap here in November. He can still be competitive off this higher mark.

Lost - 3pts

2 pts win AFRICAN GOLD  5/1 (Generally available)Albert Bartlet Novices Hdle
1pt win OUR VINNIE 9/1 (5 firms) Albert Bartlet Novices Hdle

Close Touch's win in a valuable event at Sandown at the weekend gave a massive boost to African Gold's chance here. He disposed of that rival readily at Doncaster and the stable's horses have been in great form here so far this week.

Our Vinnie is an out and out stayer and his early season form with Rule the World looks much better after yesterday. He was no match for Pont Alexandra over a shorter trip last time and should give a good account of himself  today, back up to 3 mile.

Lost - 3pts

3pts win SILVINIACO CONTI 4.9/1 (Betfair) Betfred GoldCup

Before he went chasing and early on in his chasing, this gelding never really appealed as one who would develop in a Gold Cup horse, no matter how talented. However, those early impressions must now be replaced by the Silviniaco Conti of now. He has been going from strength to strength this winter, beating every opponent he has faced, and impressing with his quick, economical jumping. He looks a match for any of these and is a confident choice to overcome concerns of distance and venue and take the steeplechasing crown.

Lost - 3pts

3pts win SALSIFY 11/4 (Generally available)  CGA Foxhunters

Last year's winner is fairly priced at around the 11/4 mark, coming into the race if great fettle and with the same sort of animals to beat. He beat Chapoturgeon far and square last year and nothing has changed in order to expect the form to be reversed.

Won + 8.25pts

3pts win GEVREY CHAMBERTIN 6.2/1 (Betfair and Betdaq) Martin Pipe Hdle

David Pipe has had a barren spell here so far but this promising individual looks capable of defying top weight. He is the only one in this field that could turn out to be something special and future events may show him to be extremely well in here - though that is all subjective at the moment !

Lost - 3pts

2pts win BENEFICIENT 11/1 (Betfair) Johnny Henderson Grand Annual
1pt win DRUMSHAMBO  28/1 (Betfair) Johnny Henderson Grand Annual

If turned out again under a penalty, then there is no doubting that Beneficient, if in the same sort of heart as yesterday, will win this. It's well worth asking the question at around the 11/1 mark.

Drumshambo has been in terrific form recently and off a 5lb higher mark than when chasing home the useful Molotof last time, he's worth a go, though the fact that he is easy to back at the moment is a bit of a concern.

Beneficient NR, Drumshambo Lost - 1pt

Wednesday, 13 March 2013

 2pts win CAPTAIN CONAN 6.8/1 (Betfair and Betdaq) Jewson Novices Cgase
1pt win TEXAS JACK 10.5/1 (Betfair and Betdaq) Jewson Novices Chase

Dynaste is worth taking on at his price. He ran his worst race of the season here last year and the drying ground brings others into it.

Captain Conan ran his best race over hurdles when chasing home Darlan at Aintree last season and this will be the best ground he's ran on over fences and he could improve on his already high level of form.

Texas Jack's recent form looks even better after today. He was just touched off by Boston Bob last time and beat Lord Windemere on his previous outing.Needless to say he's a big player here.

Lost - 3pts

 1.5pts win TOP OF THE RANGE 16.5/1 (Betfair) Pertemps Final
1.5pts win CAPTAIN SUNSHINE 21/1 (Betfair) Pertemps Final

Top of the Range improved for the step up in front last time, and more progression looks likely over an extra couple of furlongs again. Under a penalty here, he has as good as chance as most of these and catches the eye at the odds available.

Captain Sunshine has shown enough in his last two starts to make him worth consideration here. He is in good heart at present, has won around here, and could go very well at decent odds.

Lost - 3pts

3pts win CUE CARD 3.7/1 (Betfair and Betdaq) Ryanair Chase

One of the most likeable individuals in training, this race is ideal for Cue Card. He's proven around here, is ultra reliable, in great heart and the trip is perfect. It goes without saying that he is certain to take all the beating.

Won  + 11pts

3pts win OSCAR WHISKEY 3.8/1 (Betfair and Betdaq) Ladbrokes World Hdle

Oscar Whiskey probably compromised his chance last year from being ridden to beat Big Bucks. There is nothing to over-fear in this field here, and  on better ground her can turn recent form around with Reve De Sivola and is the one they all have to beat.

Lost - 3pts

1.5pts win ARABELLA BOY 4.9/1 (Betfair) Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase
1.5pts win OUTLAW PETE 6.6/1 ( Betfair) Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase

Relatively young for these events, Arabella Boy is a very likely sort to carve out a niche in these events and beat a similar field to these in the same sort of event at Punchestown last month.

Outlaw Pete won over this course and distance in December in a race where Arabella Boy unseated. He has all the right sort of credentials for this and is certain to give an excellent account of himself.

Lost - 3pts

Tuesday, 12 March 2013

2pts win RIVAL DESTRUVAL 6.2/1 (Betfair)  John Oaksey National Hunt Chase
1pt win TOFINO BAY 10.5/1 (Betfair) John Oaksey National Hunt Chase

Rival Destruval was let down in December to be prepared for this and looks the ideal sort. He gallops, jumps and looks the type to stay marathon trips.

Tofino Bay's chances were done no harm by the run of Baily Green today, having finished runner up to that animal back in November. Furthermore using Aupcharlie as a yardstick there is not much between him and Back In Focus. At around 3x the price of the Mullns horse, Tofino Bay is very tempting.

Lost -3pts

2pts win THE NEW ONE 9/2 (Generally available) Neptune Investments Novice Hdle
1pt win CHATTERBOX 11.5/1 (Betfair) Neptune Investments Novice Hdle

Nigel Twiston -Davies has been claiming The New One is potentially the best he's trained, and irrespective of that there is no doubting his credentials for this, including two useful pieces of form here. When touched off last time he had a very useful animal a good few lengths behind him in third and he is certain to run his race and go very close.

Chatterbox is unbeaten in his two hurdle races including a victory over My Tent Or Yours earlier in the season, before the latter really blossomed. He's not been in a race where he's had the chance to run to a rating that some of his rivals here have achieved and could be anything and is worth support.

The New One won  + 8pts

3pts win HADRIAN'S APPROACH 13/2 (Betfair and Betdaq) RSA Chase

A runner up to Dynaste followed by being touched off by Unioniste, Hadrian's Approach is developing into a highly promising young chaser and with there being remaining a question mark over Unioniste's stamina on a track like this, Henderson's horse is fancied to turn the Kempton form around and just about win this.

Lost - 3pts

2pts win ABBEY LANE  8/1 (Generally available) Coral Cup
1pt win CASH AND GO  15/1 (Betfair) Coral Cup

Abbey Lane has the credentials for this having won a similarly valuable, large field event at Leopardstown in January. He is versatile regarding ground and distance and all in all is hard to cross off the list.

Cash And Go was runner up in a very valuable event here earlier in the season. His run when seventh in the Betfair suggests he could be better at this longer trip and he remains relatively unexposed and open to further improvement with the switch up. 

Lost - 3pts

Monday, 11 March 2013

1.5pts win JEZKI  5.2/1 (Betfair and Betdaq)William Hill Supreme Novices Hdle
1.5pts win UN ATOUT 7/1 ( 3 firms and both exchanges) William Hill Supreme Novices Hdle

Jezki is unbeaten in his four starts over hurdles, all in soft ground and the last two being Grade One events, and looks certain to figure in the shake up. While the figs he's returning might no match My Tent Or Yours Newbury win, the latter had his platform to achieve his rating and is probably not quite as good as the visual impression he created that day. Whatever, at 2.5 X the price of the Henderson runner, Jezki is the preferred option.

Un Atout is another who looks visually exciting and there is no knowing just how good he is. The ground will definitely suit, and racing prominently it would be no surprise if he galloped the bridle sorts into the ground. Certainly worth support at the price available.

Lost - 3pts

2pts win MERRY KING 6.6/1 (Betfair and Betdaq)  JLT Speciality H'cap Chase
1pt win LOCH BA 13/1 (Betfair and Betdaq)  JLT Speciality H'cap Chase

With only four chase runs under his belt, Merry King is already developing into a likeable young staying chaser and looks up to this task despite being raised for his game Haydock effort in defeat. He is a safe jumper who ideally suited by the prevailing soft ground, and there looks to be plenty more to come.

Loch Ba has done well since Mick Channon took over his career and has been on the upgrade, stays and acts well in the soft. Another very likely type for this event.

Lost - 3pts

3pts win ZARKANDER 4.1/1 (Betfair and Betdaq) Stan James Champion Hdle

Although the field contains the last three winners of this event there are plenty of question marks to answer for most of these.Rock On Ruby has not been convincing this term and is tried in blinds, Binocular will surely not be bouncing back to his very best of three years ago while Grandouet appears to have had all sorts of problems though should not be underestimated. As for Hurricane Fly - well if he'd have fallen early or missed  last season's race he would still have that invincibility about him and would be odds on. However, despite being in  the best of form recently his run last year creates a serious doubt as to how he'll perform; something magnified by the negative vibes around him. At around the 2/1 mark he makes limited appeal and Zarkander looks very much the one to be on. He is developing into a serious winning machine himself and as the soft ground will turn this into more of a stamina test than last year's renewal when he found himself getting outpaced at a crucial stage, he chances here are stonewall solid and he'll take all the beating.

Lost - 3pts

1.5pts win ARABELLA BOY 4.7/1 (Betfair and Betdaq) Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase
1.5pts win OUTLAW PETE 11/2 ( 2 firms and both exchanges) Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase

Relatively young for these events, Arabella Boy is a very likely sort to carve out a niche in these events and beat a similar field to these in the same sort of event at Punchestown last month.

Outlaw Pete won over this course and distance in December in a race where Arabella Boy unseated. He has all the right sort of credentials for this and is certain to give an excellent account of himself.

Race Abandoned

Saturday, 9 March 2013

2pts win ARNAUD 20/1 (Betfair) Paddy Power Imperial Cup
1pt win FIRST AVENUE 29/1(Betfair) Paddy Power Imperial Cup

Testing conditions here and Arnaud looks interesting enough at his price. He ran really well on his only run in the UK in last year's Fred Winter and a repeat of his run two outings ago, when chasing home Blackstairsmountain at Cork, would put him right in the picture. Furthermore, he is most certainly open to further improvement, acts in the mud, and hails from a very shrewd yard so encouragement would be gained if he began to shorten during the morning.

First Avenue was unfortunate when a last flight casualty when  looking the likely winner here in November off the same rating as today. He then ran another good race in a valuable event at Ascot in November on testing ground. A bit of a typically quirky Montjieu,  First Avenue has  a moderate strike rate but worth chancing at present odds in the hope that it all comes together.

First Avenue Won  + 25.5pts

Saturday, 2 March 2013

1.5pts win MR GARDNER 14/1 (Generally available) Stan James Greatwood Gold Cup
1.5pts win PACHA DU POLDER  20/1 (Betfair) Stan James Greatwood Gold Cup

The hard to keep sound Mr Gardner's chasing career has been restricted to four races and there is no knowing what level he would have made it at if he'd kept a clean bill of health. However, it's very likely that he still retains plenty of ability judging how he shaped on his first run for his new yard. This is a wide open event but albeit with nothing to be over scared of and though there is a lot of guesser involved it is very possible that Mr Gardner's present rating underrates the level of performance that he is still capable of.

The drying conditions will suit Pacha Du Polder. He looked a highly promising young chaser last season, finishing his campaign off with an impressive success in a Grade 2 event at Ayr. He'll have to bounce back from a poor performance and there is not too much interest in him on the exchanges at the moment; however, with conditions more up his street today he is capable of surprising and is worth hopeful support.

Pacha Du Polder won + 27pts