Saturday, 30 June 2012

2pts win LEXINGTON BAY 12/1 ( Generally available)  John Smiths Northumberland Plate
1pt win PETARA BAY  69/1 ( Betfair) John Smiths Northumberland Plate

It's a guess how even the proven soft ground performers will handle what are likely to be desperate conditions. Lexington Bay does at least go in the soft and was in good form last Autumn, winning at Ayr and Haydock, the latter a competitive handicap. He is 7lb higher in the ratings than that last win but a repeat of that sort of performance would give him a realistic chance here. It's also encouraging that his price is holding up well as one of his stable companions High Office, who looked to have a similar chance, has been very weak indeed on the exchanges this morning.

Petara Bay finished fourth in this last year and went on to win at the big Goodwood meeting. He has been very lightly raced over the last few years but has  touch of class and retains all of his ability. Sure to strip fitter for his Ascot run, he is  massive on the exchanges at the moment but as he runs in a limited number of races connections would be unlikely to waste him if they thought it was a totally lost cause.

Lost - 3pts