Saturday, 30 June 2012

2pts win LEXINGTON BAY 12/1 ( Generally available)  John Smiths Northumberland Plate
1pt win PETARA BAY  69/1 ( Betfair) John Smiths Northumberland Plate

It's a guess how even the proven soft ground performers will handle what are likely to be desperate conditions. Lexington Bay does at least go in the soft and was in good form last Autumn, winning at Ayr and Haydock, the latter a competitive handicap. He is 7lb higher in the ratings than that last win but a repeat of that sort of performance would give him a realistic chance here. It's also encouraging that his price is holding up well as one of his stable companions High Office, who looked to have a similar chance, has been very weak indeed on the exchanges this morning.

Petara Bay finished fourth in this last year and went on to win at the big Goodwood meeting. He has been very lightly raced over the last few years but has  touch of class and retains all of his ability. Sure to strip fitter for his Ascot run, he is  massive on the exchanges at the moment but as he runs in a limited number of races connections would be unlikely to waste him if they thought it was a totally lost cause.

Lost - 3pts

Saturday, 23 June 2012

3pts win MEMPHIS TENNESSEE 11/2 ( 5 firms and exchanges)  Hardwicke Stakes

This is a cracking renewal and has a field worthy of a G1. Sea Moon was so impressive in last years Voltigeur that you took for granted he'd be a big player in the likes of the King George and Arc this season. However, he has not confirmed that impression since - he is high class and will come on for his seasonal debut run but may not be the star in the making that he looked to be at York that day and Memphis Tennessee gets preference. This colt was fourth in the Derby and third in the Curragh equivalent and looked an interesting prospect for the second half of the season but never appeared again after his Curragh run. He turned up for the first time since in the Ormonde at Chester, completing what was not a difficult task with his chief rival running well below form. His trainer has been quoted as saying that he has come on physically during the winter and if that is the case he should  be able to improve on his high class form of last season and is sure to be involved here.

Lost - 3pts

3pts win PABUSAR 40/1( Generally available)  Wokingham

This likeable gelding is sure to win one of the valubale sprint handicaps sometime soon. He travelled beautifully throughout his race at Newbury last time and quickened up to win his race but was just pipped on the  line. He looked a much improved animal that day. The one main concern is the ground - he has disappointed in his two outings on ground on the easy side. However one was behind Margot Did at Sandown when he went too fast early and in the other he just never quite got into it. The jury is still out on that issue but at the odds available these concerns can be overloked and he is worth taking a chance with.

Lost - 3pts

3pts win ANATOLIAN 12/1 ( 2 firms and exchanges) Duke of Edinburgh

Anatolian has been raised 7lb in the ratings for finished second at Newmarket last time. Nevertheless, that was a competitive event, with the winner looking sure to go on and take another valuable race and he had the third horse five lengths in areas. He is stil lightly raced enough to be able to find further improvement , is not scared of getting his head infront and has the class to be able to defy top weight here.

Lost - 3pts

Thursday, 21 June 2012

3pts win THOMAS CHIPPENDALE 9/1 ( 3 firms and exchanges) King Edward VI Stakes

Astrology is worth taking on at around Evens. He won a dreadful Dee Stakes and was placed in a Derby where there was one genuine top class colt against a lower than normal quality field. Thought Worthy, was beaten entering the straight at Epsom ( Buick has deserted him here) and on previous form there is little to separate him and Noble Mission. Queally has chosen the latter over stable companion Thomas Chippendale but probably feels obliged to do so with him being closely related to Frankel and the Cecil second string looks mighty interesting here. He still had a Derby entry when disappointing in a Newbury handicap on his seasonal appearance when backed as though he was a Group horse. He put that behind him when impressively wining a Newmarket handicap in the soft last time; he'll need to be a good deal better than the bare form to win this but he still could be anything and is worth taking a chance with at the odds available.

Won 7.6/1 ( deduction for NR's)  + 22.8 pts

3pts win CARDIGAN 12/1 (Generally available) Coronation Stakes

This one could cause a surprise and buck the trends for this race. Almost all the winners of this come from G1's but apart from Beauty Parlour in France, this crop of 1m filles look well below the norm. Cardigan is pitted in at the deep end on her seasonal debut but her in form trainer does not have a habit of overfacing his charges and of course won the Derby with Shaamit on his seasonal debut. Cardigan won her only outing, a Haydock maiden last September in good style, acts with give in the ground and quite literally could be anything.

Lost - 3pts

3pts win KIRTHILL 16/1 ( 5 firms and exchanges) Wolferton Handicap

The owners of this colt like if possible to have something lined up for one of the handicaps here and Kirtling shaped really well on his seasonal debut at York last month after being slowly away and in the process ran what could be called a satisfactory trail for this. He'll be spot on here, acts on easy ground, and should give a very good account of himself.

Lost - 3pts

Wednesday, 20 June 2012

3 pts win KAILANI 10/1 ( 4 firms and exchanges) Ribblesdale Stakes

This is a cracking renewal of this event with a field as strong as the Oaks itself with genuine in depth quality. The Epsom race was a messy affair with a few not getting the rub of the green. One of these was Kailani who had previously looked a top class middle distance prospect when winning the Pretty Polly. Godolphin have a solid record in this event and Kailani looks outstanding value at double fig odds.

Lost - 3pts

2pts win FROG HOLLOW 11/1 ( 5 firms and exchanges) Britannia H;cap
1pt win SWITZERLAND  28/1 (Betfair) Britannia H'cap

The form of the Betfred Silver Bowl looks sure to work out really well over the next few weeks. The winner Gabrial looks Group class in all but name, and the winer of that event last year, Sagramour, went on to take this event.

Frog Hollow finished fourth in the Haydock race, after not quite getting the run of the race . He appeals very much as one who will improve and take one of these big handicaps and it is interesting that the blinkers are fitted on him for the first time here. He looks a very likely contender indeed.

Switzerland finished just ahead of Frog Hollow in the Haydock race after racing prominently for most of the way. Though he is starting to look exposed, horses from his yard can suddenly start to show unexpected improvement when they have looked to have levelled out and drawn near Frog Hollow, he could easily outrun his odds.

Lost - 3pts

3 pts win URIAH HEEP 14/1 (Ladbrokes and Betfair) King George V H'cap

Uriah Heep looks the proverbial Group horse in disguise. He got bogged down when well beaten behind Astrology in the Dee Stakes but the fact that connections had put him in a Derby trial instead of climbing through the handicap ranks is a real hint and he now gets his chance in a handicap off a mark that he is very likely going to clearly surpass sometime soon. It will be both disappointing and surprising if he does not take a hand in the finish here.

Lost - 3pts

Tuesday, 19 June 2012

3pts win EMULOUS 3/1( 3 firms and exchanges) Windsor Forest Stakes

Group 1 winners have a poor record carrying their penalty in this but Emulous can buck that trend here. Last seasons Matron Stakes winner is an extremely likeable win machine who will come on for her seasonal debut victory at the Curragh and looks sure to be able to produce a similar level of form to her best last season and is certain to take all the beating here and even though the standout 100/30 with Hills will probably not be generally available for long, she is still cracking value around the 3/1 mark.

Lost - 3pts

1.5pts win BELGIAN BILL 14/1 ( 4 firms and exchanges) Royal Hunt Cup
1.5pts win CAI SHEN  14/1 (Generally available) Royal Hunt Cup

These two both ran blinders over this course and distance in last seasons Brittania and must be short listed here.

Belgian Bill finished fourth in that race and hasen't won since his run prior to that. After being in Meydan over the winter he reappeared back in this country in March when just touched off in Lingfield listed race. He has been rested since then with this clearly as his summer target and it all points to a big run here.

Cai Shen finished runner up in the Brittania and this straight mile looks far more to his liking than the Goodwood track where he ran unplaced in the Totesport Mile, his only other run in a large field handicap since. He has looked as good as ever on his two Lingfield runs this season and should give a very good account of himself.

Lost - 3pts

1.5pts win GRAPHIC GUEST 8/1 (Generally available) Queen Mary Stakes
1.5pts win JADANNA 12/1 ( 3 firms) Queen Mary Stakes

Graphic Guest has a strong chance of adding to Mick Channon's successes in this event. She beat previous impressive winner Hairy Rocket in good style at Windsor last time and should have no trouble confirming that form here. Her level of form there is as good as anything on offer here and with the promise of better to come she must be taken aboard.

Hilary Needler winner Jadanna looks a real early speedster who could be good enough to take a hand in this. She was reported to have arrived at Beverley short of peak fitness after a small setback so should be capable of showing tangible improvement on the level of that form.

Lost - 3pts

Monday, 18 June 2012

3pts win DAWN APPROACH 4/1 (Generally available) Coventry Stakes

This colt needed to come under pressure to get past Mister Marc but won authoritavely in the end. It wasen't visually a wow performance and no doubt Hannon rates at least one of his in the line up better than his runner up that day . However,  there is no doubt that Dawn Approach is more than just a classy first half season juvenile;  has a long term future and is already considered by connections to be Guineaus material for next season. Gritty as well as classy he is sure to take all the beating here.

Won 4/1  + 12pts

1.5pts win COSIMO DE MEDICI 9/1 ( 2 firms and exchanges) Ascot Stakes
1.5pts win VEILED 12/1 ( 2 firms and exchanges) Ascot Stakes

Sure to be better for his reappearance, Cosimo De Medici developed into a progressive late maturing staying handicapper towards the end of last season who was probably over the top in the Cesarewitch. He had previously won a competitive trial for that race in the style of an animal who had further improvement left and off a 5lb higher mark in the ratings should be a big player here.

Last years winner Veiled has been lightly raced since and was last seen out at the Aintree Grand National meeting. She had previously shown herself as good as ever when running third in the Coral Cup at Cheltenham. Last season she arrived here on the back of a Newmaket victory a fortnight previous and though the approach is different here, and she is 7lb higher in the ratings than last year, there are not many that appeal more in this field.

Lost - 3pts

Sunday, 3 June 2012

1.5pts win GREGORIAN 28/1 ( 3 firms and exchanges) Prix Du Jockey Club
1.5pts win AMARON 33/1 ( generally available) Prix Du Jockey Club

The form of the French 2,000 GNS seems to to have been overlooked by the market here and these two, who finished fourth and fifth at Longchamp, have live chances and represent cracking value at the odds available.

As is typical of alot of races over here they finished bunched in that event, but that does not necessarily dictate that the form will not work out. The German trained Amaron finished fourth on his first outing outside his native country, only half a length off the winner. He is consistent, enjoys ease in the ground and will not be far away in a race that his sire won.

Gregorian is also ideally suited by ease. After gamely winning a Newbury handicap he was pitted in at the deep end at Longchamp and finished one place behind Amaron, running as if this longer trip will bring about further improvement.

Lost - 3pts