Monday, 28 May 2012

3pts win THOUGHT WORTHY 25/1 ( 4 firms including Ladbrokes and Hills) Investec Derby

Worth playing in this now as this colt could well start around the 14/1 mark come racetime

Camelot makes the market and is priced up too short. Despite the first and third in today's German 2,000 coming from the field, this years 2,000 Guineas form has a far from solid look about it - Power ran no sort of race at all and you can forget he ever lined up and it is far more significant that the third and fourth at Newmarket did the form no credit at the Curragh. True, he is a high class colt who has done nothing wrong and could  be a real star but he is priced up accordingly and is worth taking on.

One of his stable companions Imperial Monarch is tempting at double fig odds but the liklehood of ground on the fast side is slightly off putting  and Thought Worthy, the horse he beat at Sandown, is mighty interesting. As they raced on opposite sides there is no knowing what would have happened if the Gosden colt had also gone to the stands side as he was clear of the two that stayed with him.

Thought Worthy then had a final prep in the Fairway Stakes at Newmarket on a fast surface. He battled splendidly to regain the lead after being headed, giving the impression that the Derby trip will bring about notable improvement which will be required for him to win. The trainer gives the impression that he thinks the absolute world of this colt and he is just the sort that he excels with. If he wasen't considered up to figuring in a big way he'd have been put away for something like the King Edward, and it is worth noting the he has a very good line on the merits of the first two in the betting through his Fencing who has run to a similar level of form against Camelot in the Racing Post Trophy and Guineas, and Bonfire in the Dante.

Bits of 29's are currently cropping up on Betfair to moderate amounts but he is available at 25/1 with four firms including Hills and Ladbrokes and is worth supporting right now as he is certain to start notably shorter on the day.

Lost - 3pts