Monday, 28 May 2012

3pts win THOUGHT WORTHY 25/1 ( 4 firms including Ladbrokes and Hills) Investec Derby

Worth playing in this now as this colt could well start around the 14/1 mark come racetime

Camelot makes the market and is priced up too short. Despite the first and third in today's German 2,000 coming from the field, this years 2,000 Guineas form has a far from solid look about it - Power ran no sort of race at all and you can forget he ever lined up and it is far more significant that the third and fourth at Newmarket did the form no credit at the Curragh. True, he is a high class colt who has done nothing wrong and could  be a real star but he is priced up accordingly and is worth taking on.

One of his stable companions Imperial Monarch is tempting at double fig odds but the liklehood of ground on the fast side is slightly off putting  and Thought Worthy, the horse he beat at Sandown, is mighty interesting. As they raced on opposite sides there is no knowing what would have happened if the Gosden colt had also gone to the stands side as he was clear of the two that stayed with him.

Thought Worthy then had a final prep in the Fairway Stakes at Newmarket on a fast surface. He battled splendidly to regain the lead after being headed, giving the impression that the Derby trip will bring about notable improvement which will be required for him to win. The trainer gives the impression that he thinks the absolute world of this colt and he is just the sort that he excels with. If he wasen't considered up to figuring in a big way he'd have been put away for something like the King Edward, and it is worth noting the he has a very good line on the merits of the first two in the betting through his Fencing who has run to a similar level of form against Camelot in the Racing Post Trophy and Guineas, and Bonfire in the Dante.

Bits of 29's are currently cropping up on Betfair to moderate amounts but he is available at 25/1 with four firms including Hills and Ladbrokes and is worth supporting right now as he is certain to start notably shorter on the day.

Lost - 3pts

Saturday, 26 May 2012

2pts win GABRIEL 4/1 (Generally available) Betfred Silver Bowl H'cap
1pt win SWITZERLAND 16/1 ( 4 firms and exchanges) Betfred Silver Bowl H'cap

Prices have been clipped due to a few notable absentees but this long standing event remains as fascinating as always and the Boodle Diamond H'cap at the Chester May meeting looks significant with regards to this race.

Mick Channons Arnold Lane narrowly beat Gabriel and Switzerland in that event. It could be a hint that though the winner was originally entered in this Channon is represented by Tidentime. However, it is hard to ignore the claims of Gabriel who looked the best long term prospect from the Chester race. He is drawn near the inside rail and given that the gaps appear for him, he is the one to beat.

Switzerland was a close up third in that event and on todays ground should be able to run to his optimum at this trip. He too gives the impression that there is more to come and is worth moderate support at the odds currently available.

Gabriel won + 7pts

Saturday, 19 May 2012

2pts win REWARDED 8/1 (Generally available) Blue Square London Gold Cup
1pt win CLAYTON 25/1 (Betfair) Blue Square London Gold Cup

All eyes will be on Thomas Chippendale who still holds a Derby entry but with all the value gone there are alternatives to consider and Rewarded, who has a St James Palace entry himself, is an interesting proposition . Admittedly, he will need to settle better than he has done in his recent races but if he can relax then this step up in trip looks certain to bring about further improvement and with the easyish ground posing no problem, he should play a big role in this.

Clayton is another who goes on todays surface. He ran well in an OK'ish handicap at Musselburgh on only his second career start  and  looks the type who will go on improving and win a nice handicap or two this season. Although this looks a hot event with perhaps one or two hidden gems lining up, it will only take a couple to disappoint to put him bang in there.

Lost - 3pts

Saturday, 12 May 2012

3 pts win PASTORAL PLAYER 14/1 (Betfair) Betfred Victoria Cup

This gelding races off a lifetime high rating here but has a touch of genuine class and was still progressing last season and has plenty going for him. He is 1st, 2nd, 1st on his seasonal debut runs so fitness should not be an issue.The ground too will not be a problem as he finished 3rd in the Wokingham on a similar surface to todays; while his course form reads 3rd,4th,1st - all in ultra competitive handicaps. It's in the lap of the Gods how is draw position will pan out but he has as stronger claims as any and is sure to give a good account of himself.

Lost - 3pts

3pts win PAINTBALL 20/1 (Betfair)  Pertempts Network H'cap Hdle

With the Longsdon yard holding it's form at the beginning of the summer campaign there is every reason to believe that this years Imperial Cup winner will run his race here. On ground on the easy side,Paintball travelled well in what what was a similarly large competitive field to todays and showed a good to turn of pace to take his race. His mosr recent run at Aintree can be ignored as things went wrong for him right from the onset and though 11lb higher in the ratings than Sandown, that hike seems justified and he appeals very much as the type for this event.

Lost - 3pts

Thursday, 10 May 2012

3pts win GLEN'S DIAMOND 11/1 (Betfair) Betfair Huxley Stakes

This one has a live chance here. He has won on easy ground and though not raced on ground as testing as todays there is hope that he'll handle it. In fact, though having the pace to win over course and distance here 12 months ago, his three solid races in Meydan were over 1m 4f, 1m 6f, 1m6f so the testing nature of todays event might just play into his hands.

Lost - 3pts

Tuesday, 8 May 2012

1.5pts win NEVER CAN TELL 15/2 ( Hills) Stan James Chester Cup
1.5pts win TOMINATOR 9/1 ( 3 firms and exchanges) Stan James Chester Cup

The hardened season campaigners win this event as much as your lightly raced progressive types and these two have first rate chances from comfortable draw positions.

Never Can Tell has been raised 7lb for his Cesarewitch win and reappears for the first time since. However, he  is sure to be ready to run for his life given that this is his his owners  favourite meeting, has won twice around here , and though he has disappointed when the ground was easy that was probably coincidental as his pedigree strongly indicates that he should go on it.

Tominator won the Pitmans Deby on easy ground. He is 6lb higher in the ratings but has run very well off revised marks since the Newcastle victory and has also run a couple of nice races at this venue. He has lots of positives attached to him.

Lost - 3pts

Sunday, 6 May 2012

2pts win FRANCISCAN  9.5/1( Betfair and Betdaq)  Quipco Supporting Bristish Racing H'cap
1pt win ITHOUGHTITWASOVER 15/1 (Betfair)  QuipcoSupporting British Racing Stakes
Progressive towards the end of last season,Franciscan looks one to follow in handicaps this season and can start of the new term on a wining note. It's  interesting to note that there wouild have been a suitable race for him at Chester this week; -  his owner's favourite track -  and while it could be taken as a negative that he runs here and indeed a sign that he'll need this, his price his holding up at the moment and he'll most likely be fit to do himself justice here.

Ithoughtitwasover ran a poor race in testing conditions at Epsom last but does handle ground on the easy side . He has pieces of form in the book that give him a serious chance of winning this and with his yard in fairish form, could bounce right back to his best here.
Ithoughtitwasover won + 12.5pts

1.5pts win DISCOURSE 12/1 (Betfair) Quipco 1,000 GNS
1.5pts win DIALA 15.5/1 (Betfair) Quipco 1,000 GNS
Discourse created a positive visual impression when winning the Sweet Solero last August, easily disposing of a very hardy and useful yardstick in the process, and can give his trainer his second consecutive winner of this event. Admittedly the form of the yard is a concern; Mariner's Cross ran very well yesterday but a couple of others ran stinkers. However, it's not uncommon for many of the big yards to be a bit patchy at this early stage of the season and she is one of the more likely winners of this.

Her stable companion Lyric of Light is another of considerable interest but if they both aren't quite firing then one to take advantage could be Diali who chased home Lyric of Light on their debuts.While the winner then went and proved herself at the highest level, Diali appeared once more to lose her maiden tag. She arrives here unproven in Group company but it's very likely that she would have acquitted herself well in one of the filly juvenile G1's if asked to do so and she must be considered here.

Lost - 3pts

Saturday, 5 May 2012

1.5pts win DANADANA 10/1 (Betfair) Mafki Suffolk Stakes
1.5pts win SPANISH DUKE 11.5/1(Betfair) Mafki Suffolk Stakes

Luca Cumani has had a couple of winners in recent days which gives hope that Danadana will line up in forward shape here. He hasen't run since Royal Ascot when finishing fifth to Brown Panther but is open to considerable improvement and has the potential to end the season as good as anything above him in the handicap and cannot be crossed out here.

Spanish Duke runs well fresh as illustrated when he won first time out last term. He failed to make an impact after looking likely to build on that success but off a 5lb higher rating than that last victory must have a first rate chance if in anything like that sort of form.

Lost - 3pts

3pts win BORN TO SEA 11/1 (Betfair) Quipco 2,000 GNS

Even if you put aside the fact that he has some illustrious relatives, this colt would still be entitled to massive respect here on the basis that John Oxx is not known for overfacing his animals and there is no doubt that Born To Sea will be considered to be up to running a major race here. He showed a good turn of speed to win a Listed event on his debut before being beaten in a G3 at Leopardstown when the yielding ground was blamed - though it was also on the easy side for his debut. He had been easy to back on the exchanges this morning on account of concerns about the ground but conditions now appear to be drying quickly and he is shortening again but is still at double fig odds and is worth supporting as it will be surprising if he does not turn out to be a genuine G1 horse,

Lost - 3pts