Saturday, 19 November 2011

1.5pts win 79/1(Betfair) 1.5pts place only 11.5/1 (Betfair place only market) REINDEER DIPPIN Betfair/Paul Nicholls Fixed Brush H'cap Hdle

On the face of it this horse has alot of negatives against him - his age does not fit with the profile of past winners of this event, he clearly appears to be the stables second string, and he is alarmingly weak on the exchanges this morning. However, after an aborted attempt at a chasing career last year he returned to hurdles to show a couple of pieces of good form. A repeat of his second at the big Aintree meeting would be good enough to give him a serious chance here off only a 3lb higher rating. He was travelling very well for most of the race but unfortunately found just one too good. It is worth noting that he was likewise alarmingly weak on the exchanges that day and if you put a line through his seasonal debut at that venue last month, then he is massively overpriced here.

Lost - 3pts

3pts win DIAMOND HARRY 5/1 (Generally available) Betfair Chase

Long Run could be at his most vulnerable here with bigger targets to come and all three that follow him in the forecast have realistic claims. Diamond Harry is in his element on flat left hand tracks.He is certain to be 100% full tuned up, even after a one year absence and with him having his problems this race will in part be seen as his Gold Cup by connections.

Lost - 3pts