Saturday, 29 January 2011

2pts win CHAPOTURGEON 10/1 (Betfair) Murphy Group H'cap Chase
1pt win LITTLE JOSH 8/1 (Betfair) Murphy Group H'cap Chase

Despite having a fragile type of profile,Chapoturgeon is able to produce very smart form on his day and this is the race that will indicate how much benefit he has received from his breathing operation. The Exeter race was inconclusive in that respect but with the conditions in his favour on the course where he has produced his two best pieces of form, there cannot be many excuses offered if he dosen't perform. Stable companion Nolands career had been severley hampered by two long spells off the track and though his run on the level raises hopes it remains to be sen if he retains his old level of ability and as an alternative the hardy Little Josh is preferred. Although penalised for his Paddy Power victory, he ran well enough off his new mark last time to give him serious prospects in this less competitive event. The horses from his yard are running well enough and better than the stats suggest and he should be thereabouts.

Lost - 3pts

Saturday, 15 January 2011

1.5pts win RICHARDS SUNDANCE 8.2/1(Betfair) Totesport Classic Chase
1.5pts win MINELLA BOYS Totesport 9.5/1(Betfair)Classic Chase

Not many are going to get home in this ground but Richards Sundance, proven in extreme conditions, is one of the likely ones who will still be involved late on. He has returned to a mark just 2lb higher than when last winning 12 months ago, and came back to something near best best last time when no match for what in hindsight was an extremely well handicapped Blazing Bailey.He appeals as the type who will stay forever and his yard could not be in better form at the moment.

Minella Boys is held by C'monthehammers on last month's Exeter form but stepped up markedly on that form last time when winning at Plumpton. He has still only had six outings over fences and is selected on the basis that could be one of those that has found a niche in these specialist sort of events. He is another who will stay all day and not mind the ground.

Lost - 3pts

Saturday, 8 January 2011

2pts win WATAMU BAY 13/1 (Betfair) Coral Welsh National
1pt win ARBOR SUPREME 16/1 ( 4 firms and exchanges) Coral Welsh National

This is not the greatest renewal of ths event and although Synchronised has had the ideal preparation for what has been the plan since the end of last season, he is now too prohibitively priced. At 3x his odds, Watamu Bay appeals far more. Although novices have better records in the end of season staying handicaps, such as the Scottish National, this gelding seems a safe enough conveyance, is bang in form, stays and goes in the ground and is of course from the right sort of yard. With so lttle racing over fences his handicap mark is impossible to assess but he did beat Voramar Two with similar ease as his highly promising stable companion Ainteenthirtythree, and the likelhood is that he's up to being fully competitive off this mark.

Arbor Supreme hasen't won for over two years but has run well enough times since in large competitive fields to indicate that he remains capable of running well in this sort of event off his present rating. By accounts he shaped fairish enough on his seasonal debut and coming from a yard that is flying at the moment, he is in with a realistic chance here.

Lost - 3pts

Monday, 3 January 2011


Total Layout = 320pts
Total Return = 212.25pts
A loss of 107.75 pts 33% loss on outlay

A year that never took off. Thus after a 320pt profit in 2007, a 4pt profit in 2008, a 7pt loss in 2009, this was a big swing in the wrong direction. No excuses and if things don't take a turn for the better in 2011, thats it! Will be returning to a method of tackling races that I used in 2007 but got blase about during 2008 and disregarded.