Saturday, 28 August 2010

3pts win PALLANTES CROSS 9/1(Generally available) Totesport Home of Pool Betting H'cap

This colt only made his reappearance last month finishing runner up to a horse who will probably turn out to be a real quality sort.There is always the worry about whether the race will have knocked him backwards but it is very encouraging that he is holding up well on the exchanges this morning.His most eyecatching piece of form was running well against Red Badge and Azizi at Newmarket on the weekend last year, giving away weight and you would have envisaged him having a successful 2010 in valuable handicaps. However, there is still time to make up for lost ground and todays distance should be within his compass and he makes the most appeal here.

Lost - 3 pts

Saturday, 21 August 2010

3pts win LETHAL GLAZE 11/2 (Generally available) Chester Handicap

This gelding ran a cracker last time in a hot little Newbury handicap borne out by the fact that 5 of his 8 rivals had won last time out.He only a found a Gosden horse too good and though he's been raised 3lb for that effort,he is in his element with give underfoot,still has his season to come having only raced twice this term, appears to handle all sorts of tracks, and makes the most appeal here.

Lost - 3pts

Friday, 20 August 2010

2pts win ZUIDER ZEE 8/1 (Ladbrokes, Hills, Chandler) Skybet Melrose Stakes
1pt win MONTPARNASSE 11/1 ( Generally available) Skybet Melrose Stakes

Most of the Johnston horses have ran poorly here so far and preference is for Zuider Zee who stepped up in trip has further improvement in him. It wasen't the greatest race he won at Newmarket but most behind him had been in form and he looks sure to go well here. The Brain Meehan yard is back in form and the horse Montparnasse beat at Nottingham has gone in since.He has any amount of improvement in him and is worth taking aboard.

Lost - 3 pts

1.5pts win RED JAZZ 7/1 (Generally available) Skybet City of York Stakes
1.5pts win OASIS DANCER 12/1(Generally available) Skybey City of York Stakes

Skysurfers has one of those horrible Meydan profiles ie; coming back and not reproducing the form and then given a break. He can be taken on, as can Palace Moon who has won only once since bursting on the scene at Doncaster at the beginning of last season. Rad Jazz too has been struggling to get his head infront but has been running well, is fully genuine,is a 7f specialist, and has the level of form to win this. Oasis Dancer is a likeable sort and at this moment in time still probably has a Group race career ahead of him. The step back in trip will suit and help him settle better than last time and it will not be surprising if he is up to winning this.

Lost - 3 pts

3pts win FLEETING SPIRIT 9/1 (Betfair) Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes

The last two races haven't really panned out for this filly and if things develop in her favour here, she has a definite chance of reversing the Newmarket and Ascot form and is the value call of the race.Starspangled banner had all fall his way in those two events and visually, was not over impressive at Newmarket and the drop back in trip is more of a worry for him than some of the others. It's generally not smart trying to search for reasons to get the form of these races reversed but the difference in price between Fleeting Spirit and the front two in the market is far greater than it should be and she is worth getting stuck into.

Non -Runner

3pts win DEAUVILLE FLYER 4/1 (Hills) Stowe Family Law LLP Stakes

This gelding has further improvement left in him, is capable of plying his trade successfully in far more valuable events than this as he showed when running a blinder in the Northumberland Plate, and stepped back up to his optimum trip has strong prospects of defying top weight here. He appeals as fairish value around the 7/2 - 4/1 mark.

Lost - 3 pts

Wednesday, 18 August 2010

3 pts win RANSOM NOTE 9/1 (Generally available)Addleshaw Goddard H'cap

This very likeable colt possesses more potential than any of these and has a big opportunity of getting back on the winning track off an 8lb higher mark than his Royal Ascot victory.He followed up by running a decent race in an ultra-hot Newmarket handicao over 10 furlongs before being returned to a mile at Goodwood when he ran OK from an unfavourable draw.Still some way off reaching his ceiling, he can reverse the form with the couple that finished ahead of him and it will be surprising if he is not involved in this in a big way.

Won (8/1 incl NRs) + 24pts

3 pts win ELDALIL 9/2 (Hills) EBF Galtres Stakes

In a no better than average renewal of this event, this filly's Royal Ascot run is the best on offer here and if you can file away her poor run in the Irish Oaks, she is cracking value at over the 4/1 mark. The Oxx horse must off course be respected and ran well behind a useful yardstick last time and would have been carefully selected for this but at double the odds, Eldalil must be supported.

Lost - 3 pts

Tuesday, 17 August 2010

3 pts win FORTUNI 9.5/1 (Betfair) Totesport Ebor

With the Prescott yard not picking up the big handicaps as frequently as they once did, the runners don't go off unrealistically cramped as once was the case, and this gelding could well have been nearly half of his price five or ten years ago. In reality, the yard has already better last years total and Fortuni has a massive chance here.He absolutely dotted up at the Derby meeting from an animal that went on to win at Royal Ascot.The 11lb rise is more than fair and he could still be ahead of the assessor.We can trust that he will stay the extra two furlongs and he seem sure to run a very big race and is worth getting stuck into.

Lost - 3 pts
2pts win QUEST FOR SUCCESS 6/1 (Generally available) Symphony Handicap
1pt win SIR GERRY 17/1(Betfair) Symphony Handicap

Off the same mark as when running a blinder at Ripon on Saturday,Quest For Success is hard to get away from here. He has a decent strike rate for a five year old plying his trade in this sort of company, is fully competitive in this grade, will not be hindered by any ease in the ground, and all in all looks sure to be in the shake up. Of those in double figs, the former Gimcrack winner Sir Gerry retains most of his ability and is an interesting proposition under the care of Chris Dwyer and ran a fairish race for his new yard at Goodwood. He is worth considering here.

Lost - 3 pts

1.5pts win WAITERS DREAM 7.8/1(Betfair) Sportingbet Acomb Stakes
1.5pts win SILVERTREES 8.2/1(Betfair) Sportingbet Acomb Stakes

Dream Ahead is priced up on the visual impression he created on his debut. In reality he beat nothing in particular and that along with the ground contributing to exaggerated superiority makes him unappealing at his present odds. Market rival Lake Ontario won a poor race himself at Naas and his yard don't normally target this for their high ranking inmates. Satin Love is interesting but enthusiasm for him is tempered by his weakness on the exchanges at the moment.This leaves two very interesting runners at backable prices. The Meehan yard has had a poor season but is in better form now than at any stage of the year and Waiters Dream should continue to get better, is a half brother to a very useful national hunt performer who handled soft,and should run very well irrespective of how the ground turns out. Some of the comments made about Dream Ahead could apply to Silvetrees - difference is he is four times the price. Admittedly, he was nowhere near as impressive as the Simcock horse and did beat true garbage but coming from a yard that places it's animals well, and holding up well on the exchanges at this early stage,he could be very useful and is worth taking aboard.

Waiters Dream won 9/2 ( deduction for NR as well as Betfair take out) +5.25pts

3 pts win MIDAS TOUCH 2.65/1(Betfair) Sporting Bet Great Voltigeur Stakes

This colt is the best bet of the meeting and it will be surprising if he dosen't deliver here.He won the Derrinstown in the style of one who was much better than the bare form indicated and with any amount of improvement remaining lined up at Epsom with a massive chance.On a course that suits some far better than others he never had the zip for that race but has since run a cracker at the Curragh surpassing anything that he had previously achieved. He still has lots of potential,will not be hindered by the ground easing, has not reached his ceiling, and is confidently expected to turnaround the Derby form with Rewilding.

Lost - 3 pts

3pts win BYWORD 7/2(Betfair) Juddmonte International Stakes

Without ease in the ground Rip Van Winkle would have been a no brainer selection but with the liklehood of some ease, and whether he will prove fully effective on it and also taking his price into account, the value call has to be Byword.This is a highly progressive high class animal, fully effective on all ground and despite the runner up not getting the run of the race can confirm Ascot form with Twice Over who himself would ideally want no give underfoot.Of the others, will be be surprising if Dick Turpin would be capable of producing his beat over this trip and he can be passed over.

Lost - 3 pts

2pts win ROMAN REPUBLIC 9/1 (William Hill) Patrington Haven Leisure Park Handicap
1pt win MARKAZZI 22/1(Betfair) Patrington Haven Leisure Park Handicap

With the yard flying, there is a fair chance that Roman Republic will be able to produce his optimum here. If so, then off only a 3lb higher mark than when winning at Goodwood last year, he would be the one to beat. At that time he looked a Group horse in the making and there is still time for him to get back on track. Markazzi was thought highly enough off to represent his yard in the Craven and though he is now at a crossroads and could soon be out of his yard, he is worth small support by reason that he is the stable candidate in an event which they have a very successful record in.

Lost - 3 pts

Saturday, 14 August 2010

3pts win LAHEEB 9/2(Generally available) CGA Geoffrey Freer Stakes

The Michael Jarvis yard is in cracking form at the moment and this gelding has plenty going for him here.He can race handy or lead and if this turns out to be tactical he is arguably the one who will be least disadvantaged. He knows how to win and showed when he stepped up in trip last time that this extra distance will pose no problems. That win was on the back of a fin run at Goodwood were all those around him were in form and/or have advertised the quality of the race since.The softening ground will not hinder him and at double the price of his main danger, the fragile Kite Wood, he is the one to be on.

Lost - 3 pts

1.5pts each way ADVANCED 14/1 ( 3 firms including Ladbrokes) William Hill Great St Wilfred Handicap

This gelding races off the same rating that he raced off when 3rd in this last year. Coincidentally, he was also racing from the same berth and on that occasion the the first two home finished on the near side.With the draw likely to favour the far side today Advanced appeals as one who will run a big race and will be hard to keep out of the frame. A former winner of the Ayr Gold Cup,and of a very valuable handicap at Ascot 11 months ago, he is in his element in these sort of contests and though there is clearly not going to be any further improvement forthcoming, he wins turn and has at least one more valuable prize in him and ran an OK race in the Stewards Cup last time. The ease in the ground will not bother him and the yard is in good form at the moment.

Lost - 3 pts

Saturday, 7 August 2010

3pts win SIRVINO 9/1 ( 3 firms and exchanges) Totescoop H'cap

Last years John Smith's Cup winner is now in the customary predicament of similar big handicap winners in having to prove if he is capable of winning off his revised mark.
He's only raced twice since but judging by his eyecatching run in a listed race last time, all of the ability remains. Of course, the form from those sort of races can be misleading, but taking into account the price available and the prospect of him being in peak condition today, he is preferred to the two three year olds at the head of the market who have solid enough credentials but are half the odds.Of the others,Pires has now drifted to his true odds on the exchanges while the overall form of the Tompkins yard is a concern for the chance of Brushing.