Wednesday, 30 December 2009

3 pts win WILD PASSION Betfair SP Kathleen Clarke 80th Birthday Hurdle

The very last last bet of the year. This is a tricky little race and although Wild Passion's stable companion Nicanor could not conquer a similar length of time away from the racecourse; we are in an era when making a winning comeback after ridiculous long absences seems less rare than it once was and it just might be worth taking a chance with this gelding retains most of his ability. If that is the case and then he unquestionably possesses the ability to win this if in forward enough shape and the likely odds will adequately cater for all the doubts surrounding him.

Lost - 3 pts

Monday, 28 December 2009

3 pts win VOY POR USTEDES 8/1 (Betfair)Lexus Chase

Bets from yesterday on this have been voided on Betfair and on the new opened market Voy Por Ustedes is currently a full point longer.If this gelding lasts home here he will probably win as he possesses more raw ability than any of these as as being a thoroughly genuine and reliable sort. The consensus is that he won't get home and that is reflected in his odds. However, he could just be one of those that develops his staminia reserves as he gets older. We do know for sure that he now needs trips in excess of 2 mile to produce his beat; something that never use to be the case. On his only try at this trip he was just over eight lengths third behind Kauto Star and appeared visually not to truly see out the trip. However he was ridden very prominently that day and went some way to showing that the jury is still out staminia wise when staying on strongly to win over 2m 6f in heavy ground at Ascot in February. Needless to say, he'll be absolutely spot on for this and is worth chancing at the 8/1 available.

Lost - 3 pts
3 pts win WHATYOUTHINK 11/1 (Betfair) Knight Frank Novice Chase

This gelding was still in with a chance when coming down six out in the Drinmore and there is no knowing how he would have fared in relation to Pandorama and Alpha Ridge. He was a quality novice hurdler and progressed well in his second season over hurdles despite failing to win.He looked as though he would be a force in these events when winning at Thurles two outings ago and he is fully proven over this longer trip. From a value point of view he catches the eye at his current exchange odds though confidence would be increased if he shortened up a point or two between now and the off.

Lost - 3 pts

Sunday, 27 December 2009

2pts win DARK BEN 11/1 (Ladbrokes) William Hill Bonus 35 H'cap Chase
1pt win WEST END ROCKER 22/1(Tote and Betfair) William Hill Bonus 35 H'cap Chase

Plenty of niggly question marks over most of these, and Dark Ben, who sauntered home at Newcastle on his first outing in over 3 years is very hard to put a guage on. He won off a 98 that day, beating a moderate field, but the manner of the victory means that the performance is impossible to put an accurate marker on and a 14lb higher mark may not be enough to stop him against so so opponents, albeit a few pegs above the animals he faced last time. Of those further down the market, West End Rocker catches the eye. Alan King's runners performed Ok'ish on Boxing Day and the yard must surely get into full swing soon. West End Rocker needs to brush up his jumping but a repeat of his performance behind Shining Gale at Warwick in march would see him run close here.

Lost - 3 pts

Saturday, 26 December 2009

3 pts place only TARTAK 9/1 (Betfair place only market)William Hill King George Chase

There is plenty of interest in finding some each way or place only value; and with so many having genuine chances of making the frame there is certainly no value on the two in single figs that follow Kauto Star in the market, and Tartak makes far more appeal. Irrespective of whether he would have beaten Deep Purple at Huntingdon without slipping when travelling like a winner, there should not be such a gap between them in the betting; the same applies to the difference in prices with him and Albertas Run who finished five lengths behind him in that event. Tartak looked back to his very best even though he was awkward at many of the obstacles, and if he does put in a slick round at a circuit that is ideal for him, he'll run a hell of a big race. That said, winning this is another matter and instead of using up a win part of the stake the 9/1 on the 1,2,3 in the Betfair place only market makes most appeal.

Lost - 3 pts

Friday, 11 December 2009

3 pts win RAZOR ROYALE 11.5/1(Betfair) Gold Cup

This gelding looked an exciting long term prospect when winning a novice hurdle here two years ago, and one who would go close in the novice events at the festivals before becoming a force in novice chase events the following season. He proved how dangerous it is to take an over familiar attitude to these things as he finished out of the first three in his remaining hurdle races that season including ending up being conclusively beaten in his chosen targets at Cheltenham and Aintree. His novice chase season was just Ok'ish highlighted by a victory at Bangor. Looking to be going nowhere after a moderate run on his debut in handicap company in September, he suddenly looked a different animal when winning here at the last meeting. He created a fine visual impression in a race that was many pegs below this quality wise - however, it's not just a case of the look of that performance, it's also the thought that he may just have started to realise some of that early long term potential from two seasons back. The drop back in trip is no real worry and the 11lb rise in his rating is fair as the animal he beat is a reasonably reliable yardstick. His yard is in decent enough form and at the odds available he is impossible to resist.

Lost - 3 pts

Saturday, 5 December 2009

3 pts win LORUM LEADER 9/2(Generally available) London National

This gelding looked a useful addition to the marathon handicapping ranks when winning on his handicap debut at Market Rasen. The 8lb rise in the ratings does not seem unduly harsh - in fact, he's the only one in the field that could be a step ahead of the assessor. Conditions will be ideal and a similar performance today may be good enough against a field that have no secrets to hide.

Lost - 3 pts