Friday, 27 November 2009

2 pts win KILLYGLEN 8/1( 4 firms and exchanges) Hennessy Gold Cup
1 pt win WAR OF ATTRITION 41/1(Betfair) Hennessy Gold Cup

Killyglen looks ready-made for this event. Highly progressive, he ended last season beating Shining Gale authoritatively in the staying novice chase at Aintree. The runner up won at Haydock last week off 145, giving encouragement that Killyglen is fairly teated here on 154. He had a nice prep race for this at Carlisle and it will be surprising if he's not involved in a big way here.

War Of Attrition is not the force of old but his present mark takes that into account. He is still very useful though and he was travelling like a big danger in the Lexus last season until floundering in the testing conditions. He has run O'kish recently and is worth small support as he should outrun his odds and if there is to be a shock here, he is a likely one to cause it.

Lost - 3 pts

Sunday, 22 November 2009

3 pts win PALYSPO DE CREEK 7/1 (Betfair) Totesport Becher Chase

This six year old can bust the race trends by winning this. He was highly tried in France and arrives here relatively unexposed on the back of a fluent success in a Towcester novice hurdle. Connections have made no secret that they see him as a prospective National horse and he has a valuable event to his name in testing conditions over 3 mile at demanding Auteuil. It's a guess whether he is well handicapped or not and not every ex-French 6 year old chaser has tons of improvement left - however we can trust that they've got hold of one who they are sure will go forward and he appeals at his present exchange odds

Lost - 3 pts

Friday, 20 November 2009

3 pts win MADISON DU BERLAIS 8.8/1 (Betfair) Betfair Chase

Kauto Star was making a meal of it when parting with his rider at the last in this last year, and was all out to take the event two years ago. He must be worth taking on at his odds. His market rival Notre Pere comes here on the back of a heavy fall at Down Royal and you'd fancy him more at somewhere like Newbury than this new sharper chase track here.There are only three other possibles; Imperial Commander has genuine stamina concerns while Halcon Genelardais will surely find at least one of these too good. This leaves Madison Du Berlais who improved out of all recognition last year. He is sure to be spot on, will be suited by the track, will go in the ground, and all in all is standout value at his present odds.

Lost - 3 pts

3 pts win KAYF ARAMIS 7.6/1(Betfair) Timeform Betfair Fixed Brush H'cap Hdle

Diamond Harry was far from impressive in his Cheltenham prep race and though he ended up running a fine race in the Ballymore itself; that race is perhaps not the vintage renewal that it looked to be at the time. There is still a buzz surrounding him but he is definitely worth opposing off top weight here and the extremely likeable Kayf Aramis is a fascinating contender over these fixed brush obstacles. Admittedly, he lines up off a lifetime high of 142, but you get the feeling that he has not yet reached his ceiling and on ground that will be ideal, and on the back of a good first run for his third different trainer in a relatively short time span,he is worth getting stuck into at fairish odds.

Lost - 3 pts

1.5 pts win MALKO DE BEAUMONT 14/1 ( at least 2 firms) Betfair Racing Multiples H'cap Chase
1.5pt win TURPIN GREEN (Betfair SP) Betfair Racing Multiples H'cap Chase

Malko De Beamont is in his element in these conditions and has won twice at this venue. He hasen't shown an awful lot since winning here last December but you are half there if you act in these sort of conditions and with his recent form more than reflected in his odds and he makes plenty of appeal.

Turpin Green is the type that Sue and Harvey Smith may just be able to get something out of. They rekindled another Hemmings owned horse in Artic Jack and though Turpin Green looks a half hopeless case, he is absolutely thrown in on his best form, goes in the ground, and is capable of surprising.With him looking well and truly gone he's not likely to be nibbled at much and taking the Betfair SP is perhaps the best option.

Lost - 3 pts

Sunday, 15 November 2009

1.5 pts win MEDERMIT 12/1(Generally available) Greatwood H'cap Hdle
1.5 pts win ISSAQUAH 17/1 (Betfair)Greatwood H'cap Hdle

With a mediocre strike rate over hurdles it's hard to believe that Harry Tricker has suddenly improved a stone; which the figs from the Sandown race suggest he has.At around the 5/1 mark he can go unbacked as there are far better alternatives value wise here.

Medermitt carries a big weight but is a game and genuine type, who can tough it out. He comes up the hill here as he showed when narrowly failing to peg back Go Native in the Supreme Novices. It may not have been a vintage renewal of the event but most of those those what finished in the top half of the field him performed OK'ish afterwards and he is not handicapped out of it on 153.The testing ground will hold no fears and the runners from his yard have been performing well enough with genuine excuses for the ones that have run bad.It will be surprising if he's not spot on and there is every reason to believe that he can run close here.

Issaquah travelled tremendously well at Aintree and did everything right only to be caught in the last stride. The form was boosted soon after when the third and fifth in the race finished first and third in the valuable handicap hurdle at Haydock in May. She is 7lb higher here but gives the impression that there is further improvement left.She acts in testing conditions and she would not be sent down here in need of the run.

Lost - 3 pts

Saturday, 14 November 2009

2 pts win GREAT ENDEAVOUR 7.6/1(Betfair) Jardine Lloyd Thompson H'cap Hdle
1 pt win GREEN MILE 31/1(Betfair) Jardine Lloyd Thompson H'cap Hdle

You can have a party finding negatives on most of these. Lie Forrit has been raised 9lb after exiting when travelling like a winner in a less competitive race than this at Aintree, Earth Planet ideally wants better ground, while more than one piece of evidence exists that Andytown does not properly get home over this sort of trip - he was handed the race by a faller in the pt to pt he won at this trip - , Powerstation is fully exposed,Time Electric is attempting an extra half mile and has not turned out the horse that he once promised to be, Le Bau Bai will have to transfer his improved chasing form back to hurdles, while Made In Japan has done all his winning on better ground and Macalliou's finds it hard to get his head in front.

Of those left Great Endeavour make plenty of appeal. OK,he has done all his winning in less competitive company and was well beaten when raised in grade at the festival and is only 3lb lower. However, that run was too bad to be true and he lines up here with his stable in good form and representing connections who have milked this meeting down the years.He has strong prospects of getting the trip, is proven in the ground, and is sure to have had this as a target since the end of last season. Of those at longer odds, Green Mile has been switching from code to code but gets this trip and goes on the ground. He ran well when 5th here at the festival and though off a 5lb higher mark here he seems a good few points longer than he ought to be and is worth support - that said you would want to see him shortening up over the next few hours.

lost - 3 pts

Friday, 13 November 2009

1.5 pts win NORTHERN ALLIANCE 13.5/1 (Betfair) Paddy Power Gold Cup H'cap Chase
1.5pts win TARTAK 18.5/1(Betfair) Paddy Power Gold Cup H'cap Chase

Although these things can backfire, if you side with the view that the rain today and tonight will come and the ground will be testing, then perhaps it's best to dabble in this now. The value has already gone with some of the soft ground horses but there will be others that will shorten over the course of today and tomorrow morning.

Northern Alliance has plenty going for him. He never had the run of the race when fourth in the Jewson but has a big pull in the weights with the winner Chapoturgeon and has no fears of very testing ground. The Pipe horse goes in the soft but that performance which was a stone in excess of anything else he's achieved came on drying ground. Northern Alliance comes here on the back of a lifetime best when winning the Kerry National in September. He's had time to be properly prepared for this since then and this race is sure to have been targeted.He is comfortable in the large field scenario and although many from his yard go off shorter than often warrants, he represents value at his present odds and must be supported right now.

Genuinely soft ground is not a necessity for Tartak. However, he is effective on it and in the big field setting it will help his jumping as he has a tendency to clout one or two. He is quality and with Planet of Sound, who finished infront of him in the Arkle but behind him at Aintree, coming out and winning off a mark of 152; it gives encouragement that he can be competitive of 154.

Lost - 3 pts

Saturday, 7 November 2009

2 pts win CHARM SCHOOL 12.5/1 (Betfair) Totesport November H'cap
1 pt win FRISTON FOREST 49/1(Betfair) Totesport November H'cap

Charm School is worth one very last chance to show that he can take one of these. He has become a frustrating sort but there is no doubt that he possesses the raw ability to win this.His win over 11f at Kempton and is eyecatching run over 10f in his race at Newbury prior to the Cambridgeshire provide optimism that he can get this trip. He is also at home in a soft surface; though this of course heightens the staminia doubts. Lastly, he is from arguably the best yard in the country for these sort of events - it's also a yard in form and one that has won valubale handicaps with quirky types in the past.

The last time Friston Forest raced on a soft surface he came through cruising in the Northumberland Plate only to be run out of it in the later stages.Ok, he's disappointed since but returning from a break, back on this surface over a reduced trip - a combination that may prove ideal - and off a 1lb lower mark than Newcastle, he is worth a point at the odds available.

Charm School won + 23 pts

3 pts win MIA'S BOY 7/1 (Generally available) Bigger Odds at Totesport H'cap

After a losing run stretching to thirteen runs finally came good again in a fairly competitive conditions race here last time. That followed on from chasing home Gitando Hernando in a similar event at Wolverhampton.During that losing stretch he ran consistently well in the main and like all exposed types who in the main ply their trade in the competitive handicaps, things need to fall together.These types that get their head infront after a long wait tend to go in again soon after and he has a big chance of following up here on a mark only 2lb higher than when third in the Hunt Cup. The combination of trip and ground look ideal and it's a big plus lining up bang in form at this time of year.

Lost - 3 pts

3 pts win THE TOTHER ONE 15/2 ( 3 firms and exchanges) Badger Ales Trophy H'cap Chase

The Tother One has not seen a racecourse since coming down on his chasing debut last November. Like most from his yard, he looked a highly promising chasing prospect going into last season and the fact that he has been thrown into this on his second run over fences after an absence suggests that he has been pleasing connections and is spot on and strongly fancied. Despite the competitive nature of this event there is not really a hell of alot to be scared of. Some of these will have firm mid-season targets and will not be 100% fitness wise, while The Package is not fully straightforward and the race may not play to the strengths of Nenuphar Collonges. It's horrible when your a sucker for these hypish types and they get stuffed but The Tother One is hard to ignore here.

Lost - 3 pts