Saturday, 31 October 2009

2 pts win SHOULHAVEHADTHAT 13.5/1 (Betfair) United House Gold Cup H'cap Chase
1pt win AIMIGAYLE 23/1 (Betfair) United House Gold Cup H'cap Chase

This is by far the most interesting betting race of the day and Shouldhavehadthat is the one that catches they eye.He showed improved form when beating subsequent festival winner Tricky Trister at Newbury on his first run for Henderson and later beat Poker de Sivola at the same venue.He looked sure to go on progressing from there but was disappointing on his last two starts after a break. He starts the season 6lb higher than his last winning mark and is lkely to be turned out spot on for this.

Aimigayle shaped well on her reappearance over hurdles and won a valuable Newbury chase in March on the back of a couple if runs over the smaller obstacles.She has clearly been targeted at this and has a better chance than her odds suggest and is worth a point.

Lost - 3 pts

Saturday, 24 October 2009

3 pts win MONET'S GARDEN 14/1 (Betfair) Tote ten to Follow Old Roan Chase

Tidal Bay begins his third season over fences and with the yard already in better shape than it was at most stages last season,a poor run could signal that the best has been seen of him. Tartak is highly promising and has strong prospects but is priced up accordingly, while Don't Push Me and Kicks for Free have far from convincing profiles over fences.

As a result there is some value to be found with previous winner Monet's Garden. Though now 11 years old,there is every reason to believe that he will be competitive here. Greystoke tend to retire their stalwarts at the right time and Monet's Garden would not have been kept in training for the purpose of making up the number in his races.He's only run twice since disappointing in this last year but will be in absolute peak condition for this and could cause a minor surprise.The Geraghty booking also increases confidence.

Won + 40 pts

2 pts win DRILL SERGEANT 16/1(Generally available) Totesport St Simon Stakes
1 pt win ILLUSTRIOUS BLUE 27/1(Betfair) Totesport St Simon Stakes

There are niggly doubts hanging over all of the runners in single figs; not least the market leader Harbinger, and it's tempting to take a couple of the longer shots aboard.

Drill Sergeant has his 18th run of the year but holds his form well despite the odd poor run. Being completely exposed to the the handicapper he'll win one of those events in turn and his type have just as much chance of success in Listed or G3 company. He ran Choc A Block, who is nearly half his price today, to a narrow margin in a listed event last time, and he also chased home Askar Tau in the Lonsdale back in August. It is just incidental that most of his racing has come on top of the ground as he does have form in the book with ease in the ground. There is plenty enough to like about him at the odds available.

Illustrious Blue is another who will not be hindered by the easy ground. He has enough pieces of form in the book to give him a bit of a chance here and has already won in this grade at Goodwood in July.Definitely worth a point.

Lost - 3 pts

Saturday, 17 October 2009

3 pts win NEVER ON A SUNDAY 8/1(Betfair) Emirates Airline Champion Stakes

Fame and Glory's presence at least gives a little respectability to what without him would be a shocking renewal of this race. However,it is highly unlikely that they would have run him so quick on the back of a hard race if this was halfway through the season and he creates plenty of value elsewhere. Sariska is certainly beatable , while the unexposed Tregoning horse is plenty short enough. This leaves Never On A Sunday who if repeating his Royal Ascot run behind Vision D'Etat and Tartan Bearer, would go close to taking this.He has since disappointed on his only run behind Goldikova but arrives here fresh and is worth getting stuck into.

Lost - 3 pts

3 pts win SWEETHEART 18/1 (Hills,Coral and exchanges) Totesport Cesarewitch

A likeable sort under both codes, Sweetheart possesses more reserves of staminia than most as she showed when winning convincingly over a three furlongs longer than this at Goodwood. The shorter trip is more of a concern than the 8lb higher rating, but that concern is more from the fact that there would have been double the question marks over the runners over 2m 5f than this trip as opposed to whether she is fully in her element at 2m2f, and in todays scenario there is certainly going to be enough demands on staminia to suit her. In a race where you could take aboard half a dozen and see them all unsighted she could prove worth going all in on.

Lost - 3 pts

Saturday, 10 October 2009

1.5 pts win PALACE MOON 21/1 (Betfair) Willmott Dixon Bengough Memorial Stakes
1.5 pts win AWINNERSGAME 23/1(Betfair) Willmot Dixon Bengough Memorial Stakes

Lightly raced and clearly difficult to train, Palace Moon looked as though he'd be a force in group company when winning a Doncaster handicap on his seasonal debut but things have been a bit stop start since. However, apart from last time he's not run a poor race and running here on a surface that connections have always believed will give him the best opportunity to produce his optimum, he catches the eye at odds which of course have been helped by that last run.

Awinnersgame has also flattered to deceive in the past and early in his career you would have thought that he'd have had a more lucrative time by now than things have turned out.Ok, this is the highest company he deserves to be pitted against but he does have bits of form that suggest that a race of this grade could fall his way and he's worth a go at the price.

Lost - 3 pts

Friday, 2 October 2009

2 pts win VISION D'ETAT 17.5/1 (Betfair) Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe
1 pt win STACELITA 26/1 (Betfair) Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe

Too many great horses have been beaten in this down the years to not want to take on Sea the Stars at odds on. He's been on the go since the first weekend in May, and runs over a trip that may not be his optimim. Fame and Glory is a poweful galloper, and his sort can be flattered at the Curragh, while Conduit, though extremely likeable, dosen't have a hell of alot more in the book than Vision D'Etat, who is twice his price. The latter's connections considered that the ground was not soft enough when he was 5th here last year on official good to soft. However, he has since shown that he acts on anything, has had an ideal preparation,and though he'd not be a vintage winer of this, the real Sea The Stars not turning up would put him bang in the picture and he's worth support. To back Stacelita, you have to have to trust that connections left a good deal to work on from her last race. The visual impression that she created previously was that of a filly out the top drawer and though despite claims from her trainer that she'll be better on the forecast good ground; confidence would be higher if the rain came.Nevertheless,these doubts are reflected in her present exchange odds and she warrants a small bet.

Lost - 3 pts