Friday, 31 October 2008

3 pts win SENTRY DUTY 23/1 (Betfair) William Hill H'cap Hdle

Sentry Duty is worth just one last chance - another below par performance will have him as one to avoid as it will be stretching the boundaries of excuses to say he'll be beaten by lack of readiness after blaming close races in succession for his disappointing efforts in the spring. To recap the earlier chapters,a disappointing run in desperate ground in the 2007 Northumberland Plate preceded an eight month break from the track. Reappearing in a Doncaster novice hurdle he looked a potential top class performer when he disposed of the subsequent Triumph Hurdle winner Celestial Halo, and German G1 winner Donaldson. Admittedly, the trainer of the second was adamant straight after the race that his charge did not show his true form; and the third home was maybe a shadow of the horse who had beaten Schiaparelli - however, it was impossible not to be impressed by the winner, and impossible not to give him further chances after Cheltenham. At Punchestown he travelled for most of the race like a horse who would be involved in the finish but faded in the later stages. He was still worth another chance in the Chester Cup on the basis that if he really did need a gap between runs, then Henderson would not allow himself, or the owners to run the horse. So now after a break since the spring he reappears, and it really is last chance saloon. As he's been flagged up in the RP earlier this week and could possibly get a back page slot which would effect his odds, he must be supported right now.

Won + 66 pts

Saturday, 25 October 2008

3 pts win NASRI 4/1 (Generally available)Mountgrange Stud Horris Hill Stakes

Will not be able to turn this season around now and it's just a case of going through the motions until the new year. Although Nasri winning will not have much effect on the overall picture he appeals as the standout bet anywhere today. Fact is, many are giving this colt's stable companion Crowded House serious consideration in the Racing Post Trophy, and if that opinion is not misplaced then surely Nasri, who finished only a length behind him at Newmarket, has outstanding claims against a weaker field. Though they are closed events,the form of some of these valuable sales races can work out well in the long term, and the Donativum race will probably provide a fruitful flow of pattern race performers with the winner himself being an interesting contender tonight at Santa Anita.

Lost - 3 pts

Saturday, 18 October 2008

1.5 pts each way CITY LEADER 33/1 (Ladbrokes and Sporting Bet) Emirates Airlines Champion Stakes

Rather than taking for granted the view that New Approach was saving plenty for himself last time it may just be worth siding with the plain, visual impression given on the day - and that was that he struggled to beat an animal much inferior to himself. His presence in this event creates plenty of nice priced alternatives for those wishing to take him on and at present odds, City Leader appeals each way as he's been running so consistently lately that he should go very close to making the frame. By all accounts he never got the run of the race at Deauville behind Russian Cross despite finishing only two lengths behind that animal, and the gap between the two in todays market certainly underestimates the chance of the Meehan horse; and a similar argument can be made when making comparisons between himself and Twice Over. All in all, he is surely the best value in this race.

Lost - 3 pts

2 pts win LIBERATE 9.5/1 ( Betdaq and Betfair) Cesarewitch
1 pt win MISSOULA 31/1 ( Betdaq and Betfair) Totesport. com Cesarewitch

As with many in this field, Liberate has been targeted at this event and has plenty going for him. He knows how to get his head infront, he's fully proven in the hustle and bustle of these events,he has conditions to suit,has a trainer with a successful track record in these scenarios and most importantly has recent form in the book to give him a winning chance.

Missoula was narrowly ahead of Liberate in the Ascot race and went on to run a reasonable race in the Northumberland Plate soon afterwards. She was off the course for three months and will be spot on after her recent comeback run. Seeing that she has already won one of these unique events she deserves more respect than she's been getting in the run up to this race and is definitely worth a point.

Lost - 3 pts

Sunday, 5 October 2008

2pts win GETAWAY 12/1 ( Betfair and Betdaq) Qatar Prix De L' Arc De Triomphe
1 pt win SCHIAPARELLI 49/1 ( Betfair) Qatar Prix De L' Arc De Triomphe

Prior to running a blinder in this last year, Getaway had run over 2 mile and looked as though he was going to develop into a pure stayer.Interestingly, the way Fabre campaigned Swain as a 3 year old before his run in this event also gave the impression that his future would also be in the staying races and it shows that you cannot become cute when labelling these animals. Getaway looked the real deal when returning at Newmarket in the spring and looked set to become the dominant older horse over middle distances. Things never quite went to plan but he returned to winning form last time beating two solid yardsticks, and while the bare form of the race is not good enough to win this, there will surely be improvement to come and a return to his very best allied to a couple of others running below par will see him in here with a serious chance. He appeals as the bet of the race around the 12/1 mark.

Schiaparelli reeled off three G1's in a row last year but seemed to fall below the radar. Admittedly, the level of form showed in those races would not merit serous consideration for this (though the horse that followed him home at Cologne last has recently run Getaway to two lengths) , but as he is not won to visually dazzle, he may have been underestimated. He is consistent, has a tremendously likeable attitude,and will not be disadvantaged by the conditions of the race.Furthermore, his comeback run was full of promise and provided he has gone the right way from the race, he has a chance of being the one to turn the season around for Godolphin.

Lost - 3 pts

Saturday, 4 October 2008

2 pts win LE MIRACLE 39/1 (Betfair) Qatar Prix Du Cadran
1 pt win CAUDILLO 109/1 (Betfair) Qatar Prix Du Cadran

Although the the pace was blamed for Yeat's run in this last year he would still not have produced his best had things panned out different and the temptation to take him on is irresistible as there are a few not without a chance at massive odds here.

Le Miracle runs well at this time of year and has run two blinders in this in the past two years. His victory last year was seen as a bit flukish, though the horse he beat had lined up on the back of a win over Getaway a couple of weeks previous. There is no doubt that he's been laid out for this again and must be supported at his present odds on the exchanges.

Fellow German raider Caudillo tries this trip for the first time but has prospects of staying it, acts in the ground, has an overall progressive profile, and bar Yeats has similar ability to the rest of these. He must be worth a point at his present odds.

Lost - 3 pts

3 pts win HEAVEN SENT 9/1 ( Generally available) Kingdom of Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes

Darjina arrives here on the back of a couple of hard recent races and is opposable at her restricted odds. Preference is for Heaven Sent who too has been running consistently well all season and has reasonable claims of becoming another G1 winning older female for the Cheverley Park operation.Her overall profile allied to the highly successful proven planning of the fillies in her ownership, gives hope that she is capable of finding that few pound required to win in this company and is perhaps a few points longer than she should be.

Lost - 3 pts

2 pts win LANG SHINING 28/1 ( Betfair) Totesport Cambridgeshire
1 pt win DOCOFTHEBAY 35/1 (Betfair) Totesport Canbridgeshire

Premio Loco is the one who could be much better than this lot but with his staminia not entirely proven, and certainly being a justifiable concern considering the turn of speed that he possesses,a few of those at longer odds make more appeal.

Lang Shining looked as though he was getting himself stuck in a rut during mid-season - particularly after the start he had made to the season when it seemed the transition to Group company would go smoothly. However, he came right back to form running the race of his life last time and has as good as claim to this as the two Cumani animals that he split.If he'd been on the sidelines after the Spring Cup win and that had been his first run back, he'd be around the 10/1 mark for this - admittedly there are now a few concerns over his reliability but he is too big to resist and should be in the shake up.

Docofthebay is 9lb higher in the ratings than when chasing home Pipedreamer last year.However, as confirmed again by his run in the Hunt Cup he is in his element in this type of event and everything looks set for him to get involved here. For one so at home in this scenario, he makes more appeal than most of the better handicapped types at much shorter odds and is worth a point.

Lost - 3 pts