Tuesday, 31 July 2007

2 pts win SAMIRA GOLD 5.4/1 ( Betfair) BGC Stakes
1 pt win ERADICATE 20/1 ( Betfair) BGC Stakes

Samira Gold created a taking impression when winning a handicap at Ayr that may in the long run work out better than is looking likely at the moment. She has since split two highly regarded fillies in a listed event at Newbury, where she looked as though she'd stay further ( though her pedigree does not necessarily shout that she will) , and appeals very strongly here, given the current form of her yard and her own potential to step up further on what she's already shown. Eradicate is also worth including here. Although the Johnston animals don't, in general, seem spot on at the moment the run of Champery today re-enforced the view that you can't apply the general rules to this yard and as he remains a highly promising individual, his odds more than compensate for the negatives of his Newmarket run.

Lost - 3 pts

2 pts win RAMONTI 3.6/1 ( Betfair) Sussex Stakes
1 pt win JEREMY 4.7/1 ( Betfair) Sussex Stakes

Sprinters' apart, the older horse seem to be holding their own against the classic crop at the moment, and in an event where the pacemaking tactics could complicate things even more, and not necessarily work in favour of Excellent Art, Ramonti appeals far more strongly at his price, given that Dettori will hopefully have a few plans in mind depending on how the race unfolds. Taking the angle that the older horses are capable of holding their own in this, then Jeremy, on the strength of his close proximity to Ramonti at Ascot, is chosen over Asiatic Boy, who is short enough given the uncertainty of how valuable his Dubai winter form is in this scenario.

Ramonti won + 6 pts

Monday, 30 July 2007

2 pts win GREEK WELL 6/1 ( generally available) Bank Of Scotland Stakes
1 pt win EMIRATES SKYLINE ( exchanges and two firms) Bank Of Scotland Stakes

A lot of water has passed under the bridge since the once hyped up Derby hope Greek Well was beaten in a Catterick maiden last August. The fact the connections have retained him indicate that they still retain hopes that he's better than a handicapper, and he ran a sound race at York last time on a surface unsuitably soft for him. There's surely more to come and he should go close to winning this. Emirates Skyline has not risen to the level that he once promised to. However, he's still hard to accurately guage, gives the impression that if the right key to him is discovered he'll be better than he's so far shown, and is worth a stab with the visor on.

Lost - 3pts

2 pts win HEARTHSTEAD MAISON 10.5/1 ( Betfair) Gordon Stakes
1 pt win RAINCOAT 6.5/1 ( Betfair) Gordon Stakes

It's two and a half months since Hearthstead Maison was fairly beaten by Aqualeem at Lingfield. The Tregoning animal starts his Leger build up here, and has solid claims on the book but the Derby form is beginning to look patchy, and Hearthstead Maison, who looked one to side with in future when putting up a lifetime best to win a competitive Newmarket handicap appeals very strongly here, despite this being ultra - competitive looking for a Group 3 event. Raincoat is difficult to assess but if he's going to be going places, which could well be the case, then this is the opportunity for him to show it.

Raincoat Lost , Hearthstead Maison NR - 1pt

2 pts win SAMURAI WAY 7/2 ( Betfair) Detica Summer Stakes
1 pt win SCRIPTWRITER 9.5/1 ( Betfair) Detica Summer stakes

The Cumani horses are flying at the moment, and the lightly raced Samurai Way is of considerable interest in the hope that the step up in trip will aid him here. Scriptwriter is an odd sort but has pieces of form that entitle him to go close off top weight here, and is worth support at the price.

Scriptwriter won + 7 pts

Sunday, 29 July 2007

2 pts win HIGH TREASON 10/1 ( generally available) London Clubs International Stakes
1 pt win GROUP CAPTAIN 10/1 ( generally available) London Clubs International Stakes

It could pay to ignore High Treason's last run, because prior to that he'd been in the form of his life. He acts in the soft, and a reproduction of his two runs at York in May will see him go very close. Group Captain has been disappointing lately but the yard went through a quiet patch, and as the Beckhampton horses are running alot better now, he is worth chancing today.

Group Captain won + 8 pts

1 pt win HOGMANEIGH 6.4/1 ( Betfair) Hong Kong Jockey Club Sprint
1 pt win DIG DEEP 11.5/1 ( Betfair) Hong Kong Jockey Club Sprint
1 pt win FANTASY BELIEVER 12.5/1 ( Betfair) Hong Kong Jockey Club Sprint

Spencer teams up with Hogmaneigh for the second time, and with conditions ideal for him, this highly useful sprint handicapper, who still retains a highly progressive profile, must be supported. Dig Deep showed something when running in the soft at Newmarket October and he's worth chancing in the hope that he'll be capable of reproducing his best on the surface. If so, he'll go close to defying his 5lb penalty. Fantasy Believer appears to retain most of his ability and looks to be running into form, and is on a winning mark at the moment.

Lost - 3 pts

Saturday, 28 July 2007

1pt win WISE DENNIS 9/1 ( generally available) Totesport International Stakes
1pt win ORDNANCE ROW 11/1 ( Betfair) Totesport International Stakes
1 pt win REGAL PARADE 47/1 ( Betfair) Totesport International Stakes

The comments made about Wise Dennis prior to the Buckingham Palace still apply. He found himself tracking the wrong horses in that event, and while he cannot be called unlucky in any way, he should have been closer. Similarly, Ordnance Row has probably now now progressed into a group class animal. I don't think the drop back to 7f will be a problem, and from a handicapping perspective remains on a winning mark. Regal Parade is the one that appeals at the bigger prices. 7F in a big field with some give could be ideal, and with him still having only a few races under is belt, you cannot say with certainty that the handicapper has hold of him.

Lost - 2 pts ( Ordnance Row NR)

2 pts win MARAAHEL 13/2 ( Betfair) King George & Queen Elizabeth Stakes
1 pt win PRINCE FLORI 12/1 ( generally available) King George & Queen Elizabeth Stakes

In a shocking renewal where grave doubts hang over Dylan Thomas on account of the ground, and where Scorpion has an altogether far from convincing profile, Maraahel could have his big day. It's unlikely to take a genuine G1 performance to win this, and Maraahel, who can be relied upon to run to a G2 winning rating makes considerable appeal at his odds. The chances of the German raider, Prince Flori have been well flagged up recently. Like Maraahel, he consistently runs up to a G2 winning rating, and the conditions of the race are ideal for him. If he does go close, connections of Schiaparelli and Conillon, the first two home in the G1 at Dusseldorf will be wondering how their charges would have fared. Conillon, in particular, is a fascinating long term prospect.

Lost - 3 pts

2 pts win CIRCLE OF LOVE 7/2 ( Paddy Power) Skybet Fillies Stakes
1 pt win GULL WING 4/1 ( Betfair and Paddy Power) Skybet Fillies Stakes

It's hard to evaluate Circle Of Love's wide margin Pontefract success, but she is an improving filly who will go in the ground and has pretensions to being alot better than she is able to be rated. Gull Wing is worth back up support. She is running well at the moment and has chances of reversing Newbury running with Sell Out.

Gull Wing won + 2 pts

1 pt win STAGE GIFT 8/1 ( generally available) Skybet York Stakes
1 pt win TAKE A BOW 12.5/1 (Betfair) Skybet York Stakes
1 pt win CHARLIE TOKYO 16/1 ( Paddy Power) Skybet York Stakes

With doubts over Eagle Mountain on account of the ground, and Winged Cupid on the basis that he'd had his problems and may not reproduce his Windsor form given that the success was on the back of a long lay off, it could be worth taking three longer priced runners against the field. Stage Gift has been deserted by McEvoy, but is a highly talented individual, open to further improvement, and could take some pegging back if he takes it up early on. Take a Bow has reached his peak late in his careeer, but is a likeable sort and should run his race. Charlie Tokyo does not have much chance from a ratings view but is in top form and is guaranteed to handle the ground.

Stage Gift won + 6 pts

2 pts FULLANDBY 6/1 ( Betfair and at least 2 firms) Skybet Dash
1 pt win GIFT HORSE 8/1 ( generally available) Skybet Dash

Off a 4lb higher mark, Fullandby can follow up his Ayr victory. He'll go in the ground and has a good record in these sort of events. David Nicholl's are in good form at the moment, and gift Horse, who hasen't won for some time, has claims here. The booking of McEvoy is particularly interesting.

Lost - 3pts

3 pts win KAYF ARAMIS S/P Skybet.Com Stakes

This animal is 2 from 3 over C& D, is from a yard whose horses are running out of their skin at the moment, and with the help of a pull in the weights, can reverse the Warwick form with Last Flight, despite the fact that the latter should in an ideal world be open to the necessary improvement to confirm the form.

Lost - 3 pts

Sunday, 15 July 2007

2 pts win TIMARWA 8.8/1 Irish Oaks
1 pt win PROFOUND BEAUTY 22/1 Irish Oaks

The testing conditions are a big threat to the front two here. Light Shift's will not to be to use her turn of foot, while Peeping Fawn, though probably able to act in the ground, may not have the staminia reserves to get home.

In the circumstances Timarwa makes considerable appeal. Her classy dam acted in very soft ground, most of the good Daylami's handle it, and as she appears to be open to plenty more improvement, has strong claims of reversing the Pretty Polly form with Peeping Fawn.

Profound Beauty finished runner up behind Timarwa in a maiden here in May. She has since took her maiden, is out of a dam who went in the ground, and must be held in the highest regard for the yard to pit her in here. She catches the eye at her current odds.

Lost - 3 pts

Saturday, 14 July 2007

2 pts win WEBBOW 5.1/1 ( Betfair) John Smith's Cask Stakes
1 pt win IL CASTAGANO 11.5/1 ( Betfair) John Smith's Cask Stakes

The late developing Webbow looks the sort who will climb further through the handicap ranks and makes fair appeal at his odds to beat The Grey Berry, an animal who the handicapper looks to have made a good attempt at curbing his winning sequence. Il Castagano was probably straighter in condition when holding off Webbow at Redcar two outings ago.However, his yard at flying at the moment, he's ran OK'ish in really testing conditions before, and catches the eye at his current price.

Lost - 2pts ( Il Castagano NR)

2 pts win PARIS BELL 8.2/1 ( Betfair) John Smith's Extra Cold Stakes
1 pt win PICK A NICE NAME 4.7/1 ( Betfair) John Smith's Extra Cold Stakes

Prospect Court is on a roll ( though was flattered by his wide margin success at Newcastle when the draw took out a good proportion of the field) and it can often be foolhardy to take on animals with this sort of profile; but similar to The Grey Berry in the opener, the rating he runs off here may shackle him and it could be worth taking a couple against him.

Three of the winners on Friday's card came from off the pace, and this increases confidence in Paris Bell ( who was on the 'wrong' side in Prospect Court's Newcastle race) who wins his races coming from the rear. He runs off a winnable mark, ran OK at Pontefract last time and won't mind the conditions.

There are not many Polar Falcon's left anymore, and the in foal Pick A Nice Name makes her last appearance before retiring to the paddocks. She handles these conditions well and there is no reason why she shouldn't give a good account of herself.

Lost -3pts

1 pt win HITCHCOCK 6.4/1 ( Betfair) John Smith's Cup
1 pt win SMART INSTINCT 13/1 ( Betfair) John Smith's Cup
1pt win FLYING CLARETS 21/1 ( Betfair) John Smith's Cup

You'd have to search hard to find a prominent race with such a weird profile. So many of these appear unsuited by the conditions of the race and hopefully there will not be a stampede of defectors during the morning.

Hitchcock visually appeared to need every yard of the 12f at Ascot, and shaped like he'd appreciate further. However, logic dictates that he'd not be lining up here if that was the case. He could possibly be a bit better than these, does at least go in the ground, and must be included in any porfolio for this race - though it could end up looking a really daft one if there is plenty of NR's.

Richard Fahey runs five; Smart Instinct and Flying Clarets being the most interesting. With only five races under his belt, the former has any amount of improvement left in him, acquitted himself well in a fiercely competitive handicap last time, and ran well in a race here at the May meeting, the form of that event having being boosted recently. The ground/trip combination could be ideal for Flying Clarets, who has run well in all her five races here, and it could pay to ignore her below par performance at Epsom last time.

Lost - 3pts

2 pts win GAME LAD 5.4/1 ( Betfair) John Smith's Extra Smooth Stakes
1 pt win BLACK CHARMER 20/1 ( Betfair & Paddy Power) John Smith's Extra Smooth Stakes

Game Lad will clearly be popular here with the 7f in testing ground being ideal for him and it's probably not worth straying away from him - the jockey arrangements are a little surprising but as we don't know the reasoning behind them it's probably best not to become concerned with them. Admittedly, he's been penalised for his success last time out and has never won off a mark this high, but the fact that he is guaranteed to act in these conditions more than counter balances that.

If you freeze the race 2f out that Black Charmer ran in here in May, he's traveling smoothly ahead of the likes of Blythe Knight, Wise Dennis, and Pride Of Nation. True, he clearly has problems, but he retains plenty of ability and if he's traveling well at the front halfway up the straight here, he may last home . He ran poorly on heavy ground last time, but is perhaps more likely to be from the ailments he has. He does go on normal soft and is worth getting involved with at the price.

Lost - 3pts

Thursday, 12 July 2007

1 pt win DABBERS RIDGE 8.4/1 ( Betfair) Bunbury Cup
1 pt win SOMETHING 8/1 ( Betfair) Bunbury Cup
1 pt win RACER FOREVER 26/1 ( Betfair) Bunbury Cup

Dabber's Ridge is a real force in these valuable big field 7f handicaps.Versatile regarding track characteristics and underfoot conditions, his prominent style of racing enables him to avoid the traffic problems that occur in these events, and there is no reason why he shouldn't figure in the shake up here.

Something has returned to the track as good as ever this season. Still relatively lightly raced, he ran a blinder in the Wokingham, and while it is a concern that he takes a bit of a hold over this trip, the pace of this event should enable him to settle and he too will surely be in the shake up.

It's interesting that Gosden has held onto the now gelded Race Forever. With the blinds on for the first time, a ploy that worked wonders for stable mate Royal Oath in the Hunt Cup, he is very interesting at his present odds.

Lost -3 pts

1/2 pt win, 69/1 ( Betfair) 1/2 pt place 13/1 ( Betfair) BALTHAZAR'S GIFT July Cup

Having already got on Dutch Art at 12/1, who'll surely go very close, even if the ground is on the fast side, it could be worth speculating with another point on the race. Balthazaar's Gift has had a strange career and whether his inconsistent profile can be attributed to the number of different yards he's been housed in is a moot point, but fact is that he appeared as good as ever in the Wokingham, only failed by a neck to win the Golden Jubilee in 2006, and is an absolutely massive price on the exchanges at the moment.

Lost - 1 pt

Wednesday, 11 July 2007

2 pts win PIPEDREAMER 11/2 (Generally available) Kleinwort Benson Stakes
1 pts win LADIES BEST 8/1 ( Generally available) Kleinwort Benson Stakes

A fascinating handicap to sift through, but one where you are continually drawn to those at the front end of the market.

Pipedreamer was visually pleasing to watch when he won his handicap at Pontefract. Just the sort that Gosden excels with, he appeals strongly as one who will be competitive off his new mark and it will be surprising if he doesn't figure in the shake up here. In the case of Ladies Best, you are now in the position of being forced to put a positive tint on his profile to justify siding with him. Having looked the type who will turn out better than the 91 rating he presently has, and reverting to what will probably be his optimum trip against a field lacking the strength in depth of the Ascot race, he must be taken on side.

Lost - 3pts

2 pts win LUCARNO 4/1 ( Betfair, B365 & L'brokes) Princess Of Wales Stakes
1 pt win ERADICATE 10/1 + ( Generally available) Princess Of Wales Stakes

Sixties Icon below par performance in the Coronation Cup allied to his visual appearance beforehand marks him down as one to have reservations about for the time being at least. In retrospect, his Leger performance - where he gave the impression at the time that he was better than recent winners of the race and would perhaps go on and hold his own in the top flight middle distance contests - was not as meritable as it appeared, and it could be worth concentrating on the others here.

The latest running of the King Edward looked a hot renewal at the time and the form has since been franked by Yellowstone at Sandown .The runner up, Lucarno, who is taking his races well and has more to come, looks a major contender for this and must be supported to take advantage of the weight for age he receives.

Eridacate takes two steps up into Group 2 company. While there are others whose paper level of form is superior, he widely appeals as one who will make it at this grade, has no complications about him at present, and is more of a reliable proposition than you're Papal Bull's of this world. He is on the up and has been given the nod by his connections to, in all probability, terminate his handicap career.

Lost - 3 pts

Tuesday, 10 July 2007

1pt win EXPRESS WISH 6.2/1 ( Betfair) Totesport. Com Stakes
1pt win ANNEMASSE 21/1 ( Betfair) Totesport. Com Stakes
1pt win SHMOOKH 19/1 ( Betfair)Totesport. Com Stakes

Tremendously competitive renewal of this event, and worth taking three on side. The ' Group horse in handicap' angle can sometimes be a little costly if you let your imagination run wild, but there is no mistaking that Express Wish is a very promising individual who appears to held in some regard by his connections, and could literally turn out to be anything. Furthermore, there is some substance to his recent Haydock victory, with the form having been repeatedly franked. Of those at the front end of the market he makes the most appeal.

Annemasse and Shmookh both ran in the Brittania, with the Johnston horse faring much the better in fourth. He reverts to this trip for the first time since his debut victory, and if this does prove to be his optimim trip, then it's the one situation where he's not safely covered by the handicapper. Shmookh was well beaten in the Ascot race but had previously won nicely at York in a race where the form has been recently boosted.The drop back to this trip is interesting and as is the case with Annemasse, is worth speculative support at his odds.

Shmookh won + 16.5 pts

2 pts win RISING CROSS 6.2/1 ( Betfair) Lancashire Oaks
1 pt win SCATINA 15/2 ( Betfair) Lancashire Oaks

There are a few here with the same sort of chance as Mont Etoille and it's worth looking away from the Haggas filly. Rising Cross has been running consistently well in tough company and while she may appear rather paceless, she does win in turn and this field is weak in relation to the races she has been competing in. She is sure to give a very good account of herself is is worth supporting.

Mi Emma advertised the value of the form of the current crop of three year old fillies in Germany at Royal Ascot, and though no match for that filly when they met earlier in the season, Scatina looks a useful filly in her own right. Admittedly, the Group 2 she won in Cologne was probably listed class in all but name, but her last run when third to Fashion Statement in the Italian Oaks makes her interesting in the context of this race. There appears to be plenty more improvement left in her given her pedigree and profile, and is one to take on side here.

Lost - 3 pts

Sunday, 8 July 2007

2 pts win DUTCH ART 12/1 ( Betfair, 10/1 generally available) July Cup

This race has long looked ready made for this animal. And now that he has been announced a definite runner he must be supported now as his price is certain to contract between now and the day of the race. There is no need to keep an eye on the weather as he is not ground dependent and the soft holds no fears for him, as demonstrated by a Group 1 success in Deauville, followed by an authoritative victory over an in form Wi Dud in the Middle Park. Having clearly shown that he's trained on well his present odds are a standout. Sakhee's Secret was visually impressive on a fast surface at Salisbury last time, but his previous performance with give underfoot when beating weak opponents had not been so taking and it looks that his optimum conditions include a fast surface. He makes no appeal at his current odds and it's probably best to wait for the day to consider a single point saver on something.

Lost - 2pts

Saturday, 7 July 2007

2 pts win PRIDE OF NATION 7/1 ( Betfair) Totescoop Stakes
1 pt win COLORADO RAPIDS 8/1 ( Betfair)Totescoop Stakes

There comes a time when you have to let go of an animal that you have been giving the benefit of the doubt to, and if Pride of Nation disappoints today it could be the time to kick him out of the mental store. Fact is though, he still retains a overall upward profile. The form of the York race in which he made his seasonal debut is stonewall solid, and he acquitted himself well in the fiercely competitive race he ran in at the Royal meeting. Reunited with Spencer today, he must be supported.

Colorado Rapids must be given another chance to confirm the visual impression he created when winning an albeit relatively weak event at Pontefract. He acquitted himself OK at the Royal meeting despite not having the run of the race, and being a Barathea the chances are he'll handle the ground without a problem.

Lost - 3pts

2 pts win BARSHIBA 4.4/1 ( Betfair) Addleshaw Goddard Stakes
1 pt win SELINKA 5.6/1 ( Betfair) Addleshaw Goddard Stakes

The Sandringham looked a stonewall solid affair and over the course of the season the form will pan out well. The fourth horse home, Italian Girl, was backed as though she's a Group 1/2 filly, and the eighth, Cliche, had been declared at the five day stage to run in the Coronation. However, the winner of that event looks a highly talented filly in her own right with plenty more to come, and is worth backing to follow up and confirm the form with those that finished behind her, including Cliche and the runner-up Selinka. A Barathea, she should handle the surface Ok and it's not worth delving too deeply into the prospect of her tugging too hard in a slowly run race, certainly not as to be put off from supporting her. There may be a decent pace on, or she may simply consent to settle, even if it's in a more prominent position than normal. Whatever, she is selected with a degree of confidence and is a far safer proposition than Treat, who is beginning to look disappointing. Selinka is selected for back up purposes.

Selinka won + 3.5pts

2 pts win REGAL PARADE 7/2 ( generally available) July H'cap
1 pt win RAVI RIVER 9.5/1 ( Betfair) July H'cap

Prior to the Haydock handicap that he ran in, Regal Parade looked a genuine Group class animal in the making with the Jersey looking a realistic target for him. He did too much from his outside draw but still ran a credible race. He did not run too badly when in mid-div at the Royal meeting, and facing significantly weaker opposition today, on ground he should appreciate, he will take all the beating.

Ravi River catches the eye at longer odds. He's been absent since disappointing at Ripon in April, but has a useful bit of form with give in the ground and appeals as the type who could be a fair bit better than he's showed so far.

Lost - 3pts

Sunday, 1 July 2007

1 pt win TRIBAL VENTURE 7/1 ( Betfair) Summer National
1 pt win INARO 6/1 ( Betfair & 2 firms)Summer National
1 pt win CLASSIFIED 20/1 ( 3 firms & exchanges) Summer National

Of the four at the front end of the market, Kock De La Vesvre ( trip) and Hautclan( attitude), are worth striking out. Tribal Venture failed to get home in this last year but the breathing operation he had last summer has produced the desired effect, and on ground that will not be as desperate as looked likely a couple of days ago he has prospects of getting home here and has major claims.

In stark defiance of his pedigree, Inaro looks the type who will stay this sort of trip. He is open to further improvement in a field where apart from him, My Immortal and perhaps Matt the Thrasher, everything is fully exposed. He should give a very good account of himself.

Classified's career was severely interrupted by injury, preventing him from realising the undoubted potential he had. However, despite his age he has relatively few miles on the clock and retains enough ability to make him worth considering here. He's a little quirky, but if the blinkers have the desired effect, he'll go well at a nice price. The type of scenario where Murphy excels.

Lost - 3 pts

2 pts win SHAMDINAN 7.2/1 ( Betfair) Irish Derby
1 pt win SOLDIER OF FORTUNE 9/1 ( Betfair)Irish Derby

Sure to be far more of a test of staminia than the Epsom race and in the circumstances Eagle Mountain is worth taking on. The prospect of missing a nice priced big race Johnston winner is concerning - however it seems clear that Boscobel is lining up here due to the fact that the Maktoums have nothing else for the race, and you get the impression that he'd not have been supplemented if they had an alternative contender.

Shamdinan looked the moral winner of the French Derby. He runs as though he'll get this trip and connections do not seem concerned about the testing conditions. The level of his form is high enough for him to go well here, and with further improvement likely, he is one to have on your side here.

God knows whether the decision of Fallon to ride Eagle Mountain was clear cut. Whatever, Soldier of Fortune only has a couple of lengths to make up. There is almost certainly improvement left in him, he does nothing but gallop and stay, and on what appeals as his type of course, he is worth support.

Soldier Of Fortune won + 6.5 pts