Monday, 31 December 2007

Annual Results for 2007

Horse Racing

Total Staked On Year 726pts
Total Returned On Year 1046 pts
Total Profit on Year 320 pts

These figures have been obtained by carefully going back through the results and correcting any mistakes made. All deductions have now been taken into account ( including the Betfair deductions that were not deducted in the first few months). I did my best to be fair with obtainable prices and the exchange price has always been the one obtained personally.In many circumstances there have often been larger available. A highly satisfactory year - even without Toylsome the the profit would still have been 130 pts.

Bundesliga Football

Total Staked On Year 436 pts
Total Returned On Year 370 pts
Loss on Year 66 pts

Have enjoyed getting involved in the Bundesliga matches; FC Koln winning at MSV Duisburg giving great pleasure amongst others - however, after a promising start where I was keeping my head above water the results deteriorated and were showing no signs of improving at the time of the final bet in November. I'll continue to follow the Bundesliga with great interest but from a betting point of view it was just cutting into the racing profits and has been discontinued with.

Saturday, 29 December 2007

2 pts win JAZZ MESSENGER 2/1 ( generally available) Bewley Hotels December Festival Hdle
1 pt win HARDY EUSTACE 4.4/1 ( Betfair) Bewley Hotels December Festival Hdle

There's just about room to take two on side here and it's hard to find negatives over the solid claims of Jazz Messenger. A lot of water has passed under the bridge since he made all to win that valuable 3 y-r-o handicap at Haydock when trained by Gerald Butler and in his new guise he's now developed into the real deal over hurdles, is in great heart at the moment, and will take all of the beating today.

The admirable Hardy Eustace retains a great deal of his ability and all of his enthusiasm despite the advancing years. He also retains enough pace to run these close over this trip and, while it may seem a ' cop out', a point back up on him at his present odds is more appealing than having the maximum on Jazz Messenger.

Lost - 3 pts

2 pts win RAZOR ROYALE 5/1 ( 3 firms and exchanges) Ballymore Properties Challow Hdle
1 pt win SOUFFLEUR 6/1 ( Betfair) Ballymore Properties Challow Hdle

Razor Royale created a tremendous visual impression when over this trip winning at Cheltenham in November, looking certain as though he'd stay further, and while it's hard to believe that stamina found him out last time , the drop back in trip does at least erase that niggling doubt. He has an interesting future ahead of him and must be supported to confirm that initial feeling that he's a high class novice.

Souffleur finished just ahead of the Twiston-Davies runner last time and while he does not appeal as much as a long term prospect and has his quirks, there is no doubting that he's been on a steep upward curve, is smart, and has the ability to be involved in a big way here.

Souffleur won + 3.8 pts

Wednesday, 26 December 2007

1.5 pts win OVER THE CREEK 11.5/1 ( Betfair) Coral Welsh National
1.5 pts win GEEVEEM 12/1 ( Betfair) Coral Welsh National

Over The Creek is at long lasting starting to turn into the sort of animal that he once promised to be. He is in the form of his life at present, and his pedigree strongly suggests that this trip will be within his compass. There looks to be more to come from him at the moment and with the yard flying at the moment, he should make his presence felt off a nice racing weight . It's probably not worth second guessing the thinking behind the riding arrangements - while Not Left Yet does have serious claims himself the fact that Over The Creek has won his last two without Murphy could have had an influence, and we don't know whether he has had the choice or had the choice made for him.

Geeveem is another who catches the eye at the lower end of the handicap. A Supreme Leader, he is the type who is probably going to improve a good deal and reach a rating much higher than he's at now. When the problems in the jumping department have finally been sorted out, he should progress up the handicap and if he pops around safely here he is likely to be involved.

Lost - 3 pts
2 pts win PUNJABI 6.6/1 ( Betfair) Stan James Christmas Hurdle
1 pt win STRAW BEAR 7/1 ( Betfair and 2 firms) Stan James Christmas Hurdle

Despite looking his old self common sense says that Harchibald is unlikely to be the force of old as it's very rare for an animal to return to it's very best after appearing to be on the downgrade. He may win without coming off the bit but at his price he's worth taking on.

Mick Fitzgerald seemed to suggest that Punjabi might need this when on RUK the other day. I can't believe that this animal will be anything other than very,very close to peak fitness. And on a track that is perfect for him he can be expected to go very close here. Straw Bear ran much better than his finishing position indicates at Cheltenham the other week. Admittedly, he did tie up quickly after traveling well and if it was a classic case of him blowing up as opposed to a physical flaw, he should last for a lot longer today and is worth back up support.

Straw Bear won + 5 pts

2 pts win PRINCELET 7/2 ( Betfair and 3 firms) Stan James H'cap Hurdle
1 pt win SHIP'S HILL 6.4/1 ( Betfair) Stan James H'cap Hurdle

Both the Henderson horses will not lack for fitness and both hold strong claims. The one eyed Princelet would probably be 2 from 2 around here if it wasn't for a sprawl on landing at the last in January. He is open to further improvement, looks to have been laid out for this and looks sure to give a very good account of himself. Ship's Hill is harder to assess. He's only run twice over hurdles and could be anything. While it's a misleading to put too much emphasis on bumper form it must be pointed out that the horse he beat in one last October, My Turn Now is currently rated in the 140's and if Ship's Hill is capable of similar he is thrown in off his present mark.

Lost - 3 pts

Saturday, 22 December 2007

2 pts win JACK THE GIANT 4/1 ( Generally available) Ladbroke Handicap Hurdle
1 pt win CHIVALRY 12/1 ( Betfair) Ladbroke Handicap Hurdle

The likable Jack The Giant cannot be ignored under a 6lb penalty. If he had not taken the novice chase route last season it's highly likely that he would have ended the season on a rating a good deal higher than he is racing off today. As things turned out he wound up being one of the best of the novice chase crop and remains very leniently treated in comparison to his current chase rating.The animal he beat at Cheltenham last week will himself probably be a leading player in the valuable handicap hurdles later this season and all in all he is fairly priced and it could be costly drumming up half hearted negatives over him.

Chivalry retains all of his ability and catches the eye of those at longer odds. Events in the meantime have highlighted the value of his run in the Greatwood, and he can confirm that form with Trouble At Bay who finished close behind him in that event.

Jack The Giant Won + 6.6pts

Sunday, 9 December 2007

2 pts win GETINBYBUTONLYJUST 6.2/1 ( Betfair) Persimmon Homes Scottish Borders National
1 pt win RAYSHAN 17.5/1 ( Betfair) Persimmon Homes Scottish Borders National

Trisons Star will have come on from his last run, is the choice of Graham Lee, and judging by the market is strongly fancied by his yard. However, there are a few others here with similar claims and those two events that he won in March were soft. At a few points longer, Getinbybutonlyjust make more appeal. He progressed nicely throughout last season, giving the impression that there was more improvement left. He was weak in the market on his seasonal debut and ran like he needed the run. He stepped up on that last time when runner up to Delray Beach, and is fancied to turn that form around on better terms. He stays every yard of this trip, has run well before at this venue, and is set to run a big race here.

Rayshan is definitely worth considering. His yard rarely fail to miscalculate their occupants distance requirements and although this is a step up in the extreme ( almost a mile more than anything previously attempted), he has plenty of raw ability and is as reliable as anything in this field. Admittedly, confidence would be increased with a stronger rider in the plate but that is factored into the odds as he would certainly be a few points shorter with Dobbin or Harding next to his name.

Lost - 3 pts

Saturday, 8 December 2007

3 pts win RING THE BOSS 1.6/1 ( Betfair) Paddy Power H'cap Hdle

On a day where betting opportunities are pretty scarce, this is a race where you either side with, or take a stand against Ring The Boss. I'd rather believe in the visual impression this animal created when winning at Newbury last week as opposed to pulling the bare form apart. On the figs the performance was in excess of a stone of anything he had previously achieved and he could be one who makes his way rapidly upwards through the ranks. He has a lot more going for him than many other handicap good things in these situations, and his present odds are not restrictive in relation to his chance.

Won + 4.6pts

Saturday, 1 December 2007

2 pts win DENMAN 5.2/1 ( Betfair) Henessy Cognac Gold Cup
1 pts win DOM O'RGEVAL 26/1 ( Betfair) Henessy Cognac Gold Cup

Denman has drifted to a price at which he must now be supported. In his first couple of races over fences he gave genuine reasons to take a negative stance on him but ended the season by achieving all that his fans had envisaged. Most winners of this event travel well all the way and he should confirm the Cheltenham form with Snowy Morning despite the weight concession today. If the Mullins horse finds himself getting outpaced as the race hots up it's unlikely he'll make up the leeway on the leaders. It's hard to believe that Denman will be anything but very close to peak fitness here and on a course perfect for him, he's sure to run a big race.

Dom D'Orgeval disappointed in the Sun Alliance but he appeals strongly as a second season chaser who will pay to follow in the valuable staying events. He showed at Aintree that he wasn't far off the best novice chasers of last season, clearly has further improvement left in him, is sure to be spot on, and is the value call of the race.

Denman won + 9 pts

2 pts win BOB BOB BOBBIN 7.6/1 ( Betfair) WBX.Com Rehearsal Chase
1 pt win HARMONY BRIG 15.5/1 ( Betfair) WBX.Com Rehearsal Chase

The likeable Bob Bob Bobbin ran a fine race in this event last year and renews rivalry with KingKillone on similar terms today. However, the Tizzard has always appealed as one who will be a big player in these sort of events, is surely a good few pound off the ceiling of his full potential, and will have a season when he bags two or three of these valuable prizes. He will have benefited from his seasonal debut and seems sure to give a very good account of himself here.

Harmony Brig is the dark one here. He ran a blinder on his reappearance, and if the big step up in trip brings about further improvement he'll be a big player. He's not from the sort of yard that would risk souring horses by tearing the guts out of them over unsuitably long trips and one feels that there is expectations that this distance will prove within this animals compass.

Harmony Brig won + 12.8 pts

Sunday, 25 November 2007

2 pts win NEWMAN DES PLAGUES 8.8/1 ( Betfair) Totesport Games H'cap Hdle
1 pt win NEVER SO BLUE 12/1 ( generally available) Totesport Games H'cap Hdle

This is an interesting puzzle to try and solve. Soufleur is too short to entertain at his present odds. he beat moderate sorts here last time and has a 12lb higher mark to overcome here. Odiham is a fascinating contender but his inexperience over obstacles has to be a concern, and it could pay to take a chance with Newman Des Plagues on his first run for his new yard. He has some very useful French form to boast of, particularly when not being neaten too far behind the top class Cyrlight at Auteuil last October. The yard's horses are in the main performing OK at the moment and it would be no surprise if this gelding went very close here.

It's likely that Never So Blue will arrive here fully tuned up. The Taunton form when he finished runner up giving weight to Saunder's Road is eyecatching and he appeals as one who will be better served by this longer trip. Certainly worth entertaining at his present odds.

Lost - 3pts

2 pts win BEWLEY'S BERRY 6.8/1 ( Betfair)Totesport Becher Chase
1 pt win PAK JACK 22/1 ( Betfair)Totesport Becher Chase

It's hard to ignore the clear claims of Bewley's Berry here. He looked sure to play a major role in the National before coming down - he'd jumped well up to that point and went round here like an old timer when second in this race last year. He remains on a winnable mark, will be 100 % spot on, and is priced about right.

Pak Jack does not find much when coming under pressure and that impression lends weight to the argument that he is running out of stamina. Today's race should settle the argument once and for all and at his present odds, on his first run for his new yard, it could be worth taking a positive view as he has jumped faultlessly in his two outings on this circuit. He appears to have his quirks but these types have their day when everything falls right for them and he'll run a race today.

Lost - 3 pts

Saturday, 24 November 2007

2 pts win POUVOIR 5.4/1 ( Betfair) Reg Griffin Timeform Hdle

1 pt win PIGEON ISLAND 11/1 ( Betfair) Reg Griffin Timeform Hdle

There’s nothing between Gwanko and Pouvoir on these terms but the latter has ran since the Chepstow race and strictly on figs has put up a lifetime best. He created a very favourable impression when winning at Kempton in January, looking as though he would develop into a strong Triumph hurdle candidate. That was not to be the case though he has confirmed himself as being up to this sort of grade, will not be hindered by further ease in the ground, and is set to go very close here.

Pigeon Island improved when stepped up in trip in the autumn but has since ran to the same level of form when dropped back down at Cheltenham last weekend. That race will turn out to be as hot as it looked with the winner probably developing into a live Champion Hurdle hope – and maybe Osana too if he’s kept to the smaller obstacles. Ideally you’d have more confidence in Pigeon Island over a few furlongs further but at his present odds you can live with the negatives.

Pigeon Island won + 8.5pts

2 pts win HALCON GENELARDIS 11.5/1 ( Betfair) Betfair Fixed Brush H’cap Hdle

1 pt win DE SOTO 17.5/1 ( Betfair)Betfair Fixed Brush H’cap Hdle

Similar to when winning this last year, Halcon Genelardis runs in this as a prep for the Welsh National. It’s likely he’ll be forward enough to do himself justice though and while he’s 12lb higher in the ratings here, the animal he beat last year was in the form of his life at the time and went on to run Inglis Drever to a neck on his next outing, while there was a further six lengths back to the very useful Jazz D’Estruval. He makes plenty of appeal here and is preferred over his stable companion who, though travelling surprisingly well in his race last time, has a lot more on his plate here. There are too many threats for Taranis to be worth embracing at his present odds and it could be worth having small stakes on De Soto. He was bought out of Paul Webber’s yard for a considerable sum with a view to going chasing, was mixing it in with some of the best novice hurdlers last season, and if forward enough is an interesting proposition stepped up in trip.

Lost - 3 pts

2 pts win HEEZ A DREAMER 5.6/1 ( Betfair) Betting As It Should Be H’cap Chase

1 pt win KING HARALD 9.5/1 ( Betfair)Betting As It Should Be H’cap Chase

Venetia William’s horses are back to form and she’s strongly represented on today’s card. Heez A Dreamer looks as though he has plenty of more improvement left in him and appeals as one who will pay to follow blindly this season. He is likely to be tuned up for this and a reproduction of his fifth to Joe’s Edge at the festival will see him go very close to winning this.

The likeable King Harald chalked up his first victory in two and a half years last time. Lightly raced and clearly difficult to train, he is fairly handicapped on his best form and with there being not so many miles on the clock there’s a good chance that he may still be capable of reproducing the level of form displayed a couple of seasons back.

Lost - 3 pts

2 pts win ARMAGUEDON 7/1 ( Betfair) Betfair Casino H’cap Chase

1 pt win BRAVE VILLA 10/1 ( Betfair) Betfair Casino H’cap Chase

The Lungo horses seems in good heart at the moment and the lightly raced Armaguedon is sure to be spot on for this and makes considerable appeal in a race that is perhaps not as competitive as it first appears, as it’s littered with animals that make mistakes, or have question marks over their fitness or well being. In his early days Armaguedon looked as though he’d eventually make his mark at a higher level than he has but has evidently been beset with physical problems. Despite being nine he should still be capable of producing form beyond the best he’s shown so far and he should go close to winning this.

Brave Villa is worth back up support. He’s shown improvement in the region of two stone this autumn, was not disgraced last time, and has far fewer question marks than most of his rivals here.

Lost - 3 pts

Friday, 23 November 2007

3 pts win OSNABRUCK 1.06/1 ( Betfair) v Carl Zeiss Jena Bundesliga 2

Osnabruck have settled in well in this league after gaining promotion from the regionals. Although they've been weak on the road, losing all 6 games,they are 3 from 4 at home, and were value for the victory in their last home fixture against FC Koln, where they dominated the first half. A similar performance will more than suffice here against opponents already involved in a relegation struggle. Admittedly, Jena put up a fighting performance away to Monchengladbach last time and could have easily come away with a point, but that was in the sort of venue that can inspire the smaller team, and the home side perhaps went into the game taking three points for granted. Overall Jena have been very poor, picking up 6 pts from 13 games, and the home side should be too strong for them here.

Osnabruck 1 Jena 1 - 3 pts

Sunday, 18 November 2007

3 pts win VOY POR USTEDES 1.2/1 ( Betfair) Paddy Power H’cap Chase

There’s no way Kauto Star would have beat this terrific individual around here as easily as he did at Sandown, and despite conceding plenty of weight to his rivals today he must take all of the beating. Considering that it was only the ground that prevented connections from running him at Exeter the other week, it’s fair to assume that he’ll not be far of full fitness and while you need 1 from 2 at these sort of prices just to keep level, all things considered he is fairly priced.

Lost - 3 pts

1 pt win CHIVALRY 20/1 ( Betfair) Greatwood H’cap Hdle

1 pt win POQUELIN 21/1 ( Betfair) Greatwood H’cap Hdle

1 pt win MANHATTAN BOY 28/1 ( Betfair) Greatwood H’cap Hdle

With the rain certain to have altered the ground any early thoughts on this event need revising. It’s as wide open as first appears, but worth getting stuck into with room to take three decent priced animals against the field.

The Venetia Williams horses are running better now and Chivalry has claims here. Clearly no the easiest to train, he showed last time that he retains all of his ability, will act in the ground, and seems set to put up a forward showing. Poquelin finished inched behind Chivalry at Wincanton the other week. He has form with give, and his generous price on the exchanges is perhaps a over-reaction to Nicholl’s stating that he’ll probably be better suited by a flatter track. Nevertheless, from a figures view he ran his best race of last season when sixth here in the Triumph and has genuine claims here. Manhattan Boy is a fascinating contender here. He looked classy when winning his first two starts last season, revels in soft ground, is fit from a run on the flat, and his riders claim reduces his racing weight to 10st 1lb. Definitely worth an interest at his current exchange odds.

Lost (Poquelin NR) - 2 pts

Friday, 16 November 2007

3 pts win ALBERTA’S RUN 7/2 ( Betfair) Club 16 – 24 Novice Chase

After a highly satisfactory introduction to chasing at Exeter, Alberta’s Run came unstuck at Aintree last time. It’s impossible to guage the exact cost of his mistakes as the winner impressed all – however, this animal too went into the race as a potential big player in the top novice events and judging by comments by connections since they haven’t lost faith. Admittedly, the yard could be in better form and it’s fingers crossed regarding his jumping, but the longer trip will assist in that department and he is worth another chance here – as apart from the hard to assess Nicholl’s horse, this lot are nothing special.

Won + 10 pts

2 pts win GRANIT JACK 7/2 ( Ladbrokes and Betfair) Paddy Power Gold Cup

1 pt win BOB HALL 13/1 ( Betfair) Paddy Power Gold Cup

You’re either with or against Granit Jack here and provided the going is not a hindrance ( on the plus side some believed the going to be neat to ‘Good’ on the Tuesday of the festival ) , we can trust that his yard will have thought this out carefully and are hopefully too professional to run him solely because of his lenient looking mark. It goes without saying that if he’s going to be championship class he’ll have to just about win this and there are too many positives to be put off by trip allied to course, and inexperience.

Bob Hall is well worth smaller stakes. He’s closely handicapped with some of these that he’s met before but has run two fine races in both outings at this venue, surely has further improvement remaining in him and appeals as the type who’ll get involved in the business end of this.

Lost - 3 pts

2 pts win D’ARGENT 8/1 ( Paddy Power) Servo Computer Services H ‘cap Chase

1 pt win BARON WINDRUSH 8.4/1 ( Betfair) Servo Computer Sevices H’cap Chase

D’Argent won here at the December meeting last year after being absent for over a year and a half. He should not fail for lack of fitness here, has winning form on good ground and against rivals who have at least as many question marks hanging over them, catches the eye at his present odds. He also meets Baron Windrush on considerably better terms than when beaten by him in testing ground at Uttoxeter. The latter found his form again in the spring and with the yard enjoying their customary fruitful early winter run, he should be spot on and is worth back up support, though you have to go back a while to find good ground form with him.

Lost - 3 pts

Monday, 12 November 2007

3 pts OVER 2.5 GOALS 0.83/1 ( Betfair) TSV 1860 Munich v Borussia Monchengladbach Bundesliga 2

This looks a cracker. Gladbach are racing along at the moment, having won 8 out their last ten and seem able to come away with points even when failing to impress. They were put under severe pressure by Jena last week until Neuville's winner and on paper face one of their stiffest tasks of the season, away to fourth placed 1860. This is sure to be hard fought but with a danger of both teams beginning in a cautious manner. An early goal will no doubt see a couple more following. Gladback are over 2.5 in all of their last ten games while 1860 are overs in 6 of their last 10. There is a worry that 1860 will start slowly as they did in the home match against FC Koln , but weighing up the evidence available there is no doubt that the current price available about over 2.5 with Betfair cannot be ignored and must be taken.

1860 Munich 0 Gladbach 0 - 3 pts

Sunday, 11 November 2007

3 pts win ALEMANNIA AACHEN 0.84/1 ( Betfair) v FC Kaiserslautern Bundesliga 2

FCK have shown improvement of late but it looks as though the remainder of the season is going to be a tidying up exercise as they do not look capable of putting together a sustained run required to propel them up through the table. Aachen do look capable of making a bold bid to return straight to the top flight. Nevertheless, they currently lie in mid- table, 8 pts off the promotion places and only 5 pts ahead of FCK. They are 3W and 3D at Tivoli Stadion this season, and managed to throw away a 2 goal advantage against Hoffenheim in their last home match. Despite losing away to Aue last time they did have a strong spell during the middle of the game but failed to capitalise on it. They appear a better side than the table shows and are a confident choice to win this encounter.

Aachen 2 FCK 1 + 2.4 pts

Saturday, 10 November 2007

3 pts win BAYERN MUNICH 4/5 (Generally available) v VfB Stuttgart Bundesliga 1

Bayern where probably expecting a ' give me' in their UEFA midweek game where some of the decisions Hitzfeld made contributed to the result. They'll no doubt be up for this on their travels today against the reigning champions, and this has the makings of an entertaining encounter. Stuttgart have won their last two domestic games but are still going through a crisis of sorts and will struggle to contain this Bayern team, who when on song unfortunately look a level above their present comtempories. It's difficult to envisage anything other than an away victory here and the Bavarians can be supported with a degree of confidence

Stuttgart 3 Bayern 1 - 3 pts

2 pts win GULL WING 4.1/1 ( Betfair) Totesport EBF Gillies Fillies Stakes

1 pt win LAKE TOYA 7.2/1 ( Betfair) Totesport EBF Gillies Fillies Stakes

GullWing has been absent since the Galtres where she ran a lifetime best and looked a filly capable of improving and making her mark in listed/G3 company. Worries about the trip being a shade sharp are mainly countered by the fact that there have been suitable events in the programme for her both here and abroad in the past few weeks. Fitness too, is unlikely to be an issue and she she’ll be in the mix of this.

Last years winner Lake Toya is worth back up support. Lightly raced and clearly one who’s been difficult to train, she nevertheless has pieces of form that look good in the context of this event, retains all he ability, and provided the ground is not genuinely firm, could bounce back to form.

Lost - 3 pts

2 pts win SANBUCH 9/1 ( Betfair) Totesport November H’cap

1 pt win HERON BAY 17/1 ( Betfair) Totesport November H’cap

A race well worth getting stuck into with Pippa Greene lacking big field experience and only proven with give, and Heaven Knows and Greek Envoy clearly seeming to need some ease to produce their optimum.

Ideally, you’d want something that travels a little better than Sanbuch, but this lightly raced three year old is ideally matched with Jimmy Fortune, and has for the past few months looked the type capable of winning one of these events. The Cumani horses have been holding their form well and Sanbuch should go very close here.

The Geoff Wragg horses have likewise been running creditably lately and if there’s a hidden Group horse in this race then it’s surely Heron Bay. Admittedly, he’s disappointed since winning at the Royal meeting, and ran too bad to be true at York, but lines up a fresh horse and it’s interesting that for the time being they’ve abandoned the pattern race route and come here.

Lost - 3 pts

2 pts win POQUELIN 5/2 ( 3 firms and Betfair) Totesport Elite Hurdle

1 pt win POUVOIR 5.2/1 ( Betfair) Totesport Elite Hurdle

The valuable 17 runner event won by King’s Quay lacked in depth quality, and he faces a stiff task off a 5lb higher mark against some real quality looking sorts, none more so than Poquelin who impressed when winning at Ayr in the spring. He gives the impression that he is better than a 130 performer and will prove difficult to beat today.

After his victory at Kempton in January Pouvoir looked as though he could be a player in the Triumph Hurdle, but eventually took his chance on the Fred Winter, where he disappointed before finishing a well beaten third in the Ayr race won by Poquelin. However, he’s started the new season by running a lifetime best at Chepstow and is a live danger here and worth a saver.

Lost - 3 pts

1.5 pts win TOM SAYERS 10/1 ( Betfair, Betdirect, Bluesq, VC ,) Badger Ales Trophy

1.5 pt win TURTHEN 8/1 ( Betfair, Ladbrokes, Bluesq) Badger Ales Trophy

Abragante has obvious claims bit is far from straightforward and worth taking on at his present odds.

Tom Sayers is no star but is in the form of his life at the moment. He’s won here three times - an obvious big plus as Wincanton can be a tricky course - , and though this is a much harder task today, he should give a very good account of himself. Turthen’s career hasn’t been very fruitful since arriving from France but he has shown that he has plenty of ability and connections would have got rid if they’d considered that there was not a lot they could get out of him. On his first start of the season it would be no surprise for him to put up an improved showing and he catches the eye at present odds.

Lost - 3 pts

Friday, 9 November 2007

3 pts OVER 2.5 Goals 0.67/1 ( Betfair) FC Koln v Erzebirge Aue Bundesliga 2

This may not look a particularly appealing bet considering that in three of the last four meetings between these teams, a single goal was scored. But in light of the current mood of these sides, goals are on the cards this evening. Aue are beginning to follow the same pattern as last season, formidable at home and vulnerable on their travels. They applied themselves well to beat Aachen last weekend, after the visitors had a long spell of domination in the middle of the match. However, despite their moderate away form they will, like most visitors to the Rhein Energie Stadion nowadays, not be overawed by the occasion and will fancy themselves to make a match of it. The last seven Cologne matches have ended in three goals or more, and no doubt the FC will play to type, with their front line forever threatening, but the whole team looking at odds with one another when Aue put them under pressure. The over 2.5 seems priced about right here.

FC Koln 3 Aue 2 + 1.92 pts

Monday, 5 November 2007

3 pts BORUSSIA MONCHENGLADBACH ( HT/FT) 0.99/1 ( Betfair) v Carl Zeiss Jena Bundesliga 2

Gladbach and SCF are flying at the moment, and although it's five weeks until the mid-season break, it will be surprising if both fail to win promotion at the end of the season - which means that the other promotion hopefuls are fighting for one place. Certainly a sobering thought for those teams ! Gladbach have won seven out of their last eight, and it's perhaps stretching the imagination too much to think that Jena can come away with anything - though anyone who saw Gladbach's victory over Osnabruck in September, plus the Cologne match more recently, will know that their defence can be penetrated. The odds on the outright victory are too restricted to entertain and the best approach probably lies in backing the HT/FT. In their three home victories Gladbach have led at halftime in all of them, and hopefully they'll breakdown tonight's opponents relatively quickly.

Gladbach 2 Jena 1 ( 1-1 HT ) - 3 pts

Sunday, 4 November 2007

3 pts SC FREIBURG - 1 Asian H'cap 1.07/1 ( Betfair) v TuS Koblenz Bundesliga 2

Koblenz began the season with high ambitions, and Mario Basler is now at the club assisting Uwe Rapolder. They've been performing altogether credibly and did have a player sent off when getting beat 5-0 by Gladbach. Nevertheless, they face perhaps their most difficult assignment in this league in travelling south to Freiburg. SCF are 5 from 5 at home, conceding only 2 goals in those matches. They are impressive to watch, as well as being organised, and have players that most Bundesliga 2 defences are unable to handle. They cannot be opposed here and are worth supporting with a deficit on the Asians.

SCF 4 Koblenz 2 +3.1 pts
2 pts win TWO MILES WEST 4.3/1 ( Betfair) Coors Cumberland H'cap Chase
1 pt win GETINBYBUTONLYJUST 26/1 ( Betfair) Coors Cumberland H'cap Chase

Many of this field are going to be inconvenienced by the rain failing to arrive - none more so than See You There who looked very interesting at the five day stage.

Two Miles West gives the strong impression that he'll appreciate today's trip. He's well in on his hurdles form, is best on good ground, hails from an in form yard, and for one so inexperienced seems a safe enough jumper. With question marks hanging over so many of his rivals you keep getting drawn back to him and he should go close to taking this.

It's gambling with fitness regarding Getinbybutonlyjust, but he was progressing nicely throughout last winter, surely has more improvement left, and his worth chancing for small stakes.

Lost - 3 pts

Saturday, 3 November 2007

3 pts win BORUSSIA DORTMUND 2.15/1 ( Betfair) v Hannover Bundesliga 1

BVB will have been buoyed by holding Bayern to a goalless draw last weekend and appeal at the price to come away from Hannover with a victory today. After BVB had impressed with their 3-0 victory over Bremen in September it looked as though they may have turned the corner - but they've put in some lackluster performances since. Hannover have been picking up plenty of points lately though it must be pointed out that their recent matches have all been against struggling sides, and they will have difficulty containing BVB today. Doll has made it clear that playing safe for draws is now out of the equation and that his team will be going all out for victory today.

Hannover 2 BVB 1 - 3 pts
3 pts win STATE OF PLAY 2.35/1 ( Betfair) Bet 365 Charlie Hall Chase

The is gelding looked top class when winning the Hennessey and went some way to confirming that impression in the Gold Cup, where he was travelling as well as anything coming down the hill. That race probably took it's toll as the level track at Aintree should have been ideal for him, but he ran no race at all, beaten a long way from home. The jockey booking suggests that he's spot on for today and he should prove too good for his opponents. Monkerhostin, Kingscliffe and Ollie Magern have question marks over them regarding there well being, Aces Four is from a stable that blows hot and cold, and is waiting to hit form, while Turko's never appealed as a high class 3 mile chaser.

Lost - 3 pts

2 pts win OUNINPOHJA 4.1 /1 ( Betfair) William Hill H'cap Hdle
1 pt win RIO DE JANEIRO 13/1 ( Betfair) William Hill H'cap Hdle

Ouninpohja was evidently true to himself in failing to go past a rival in a charity race the other week. However, he is worth one more chance on the basis that if connections really do still have Champion Hurdle dreams, he is surely going to have to win here. He has more raw ability than any of today's rivals, has actually won his only race in this sphere with today's jockey aboard, and will be assisted by the big field fast pace conditions of this event. He's actually fairly priced considering that it will be a major surprise if he's not challenging on the bit at the last.

Rio De Janeiro is worth back up support. It looks as though this race has been the plan for a while, and the recent run on the level will have him spot on. Conditions are ideal, and there could be plenty more improvement left as it appears he's highly thought of by connections.

Lost - 3 pts

2 pts win HOO LA BALOO 7.8/1 ( Betfair)United House Gold Cup H'cap Chase
1 pt win HARRIS BAY 7.2/1 ( Betfair) United House Gold Cup H'cap Chase

Hoo La Baloo is worth another chance over this trip - in his victory in the amateur race at Sandown over this distance the animal that followed him home was only rated in the 80's ! He ran a blinder over a furlong shorter than today at Market Rasen in ground softer than ideal when running Iron Man to eight lengths and has a big pull with that rival today. Admittedly, he was beaten again behind that rival on revised terms ( though not as attractive as todays) at the same venue on better ground, but as with many of the Bowen animals during that time of year , the winner was in optimum condition. In an open event Hoo La Baloo catches the eye from a value viewpoint and is worth support.

Harris Bay disappointed after winning here last November, where he looked as though he'd go on and win a couple of more handicaps. He's still of considerable interest here. He'd had a run over timber to put him right, and though the handicapper hasn't dropped him for the two poor performances following his victory here, he did look at the time that he'd probably progress to the 140's.

Harris Bay won + 5 pts

2 pts win CARADAK 4.1/1 ( Betfair) Bet 365 Ben Marshall Stakes
1 pt win CALDRA 15/1 ( Betfair)Bet 365 Ben Marshall Stakes

Caradak is the obvious main candidate here but he is good enough to take this and there's a good chance that he'll be in the top of his form here. He didn't reappear until the Hungerford where he finished last, then followed up with a good run in a valuable event in Turkey, followed by a respectable effort in a good quality listed event at Redcar. He is hard to get away from and is sure to go very close here.

Caldra appeals of those at longer odds. He didn't reappear until August, but showed in his first two runs back that he has definitely trained on. Ignore the last two runs and we have an animal with genuine claims at attractive odds - certainly worth small stakes.

Lost - 3 pts

Friday, 2 November 2007

Lay Schalke 04 at 0.68/1 ( Betfair) to lose 3 pts v ENERGIE COTTBUS Bundesliga 1

Both teams are struggling to various degrees at the moment. Cottbus prop up the table , taking only 5pts from 11 games, and looking in trouble. The S04 lie in 5th place with 18 pts - but are disappointing their fans as much as tonights opponents in the sense that they've probably already blew their title hopes, trailing Bayern by 9pts. With expectations so high the pressure on Slomka is enormous at present, and his team are not attractive propositions away from home at restricted odds. Cottbus held out against some big teams at home last season and though they've only took 2pts from their 5 home games this term, they could come away with something against their vulnerable rivals tonight and are worth support on the Asians.

Cottbus 1 SO4 0 + 4.3 pts
3 pts win TSG HOFFENHEIM -1 Asian Handicap Evens ( Betfair) v St Pauli Bundesliga 2

Hoffenheim are making the most of the financial backing they've received and they are certainly not going to be one of those newly promoted teams who start well in their new sphere then gradually drop away.In fact, judged on some of their performances so far they could even get involved in the promotion chase. They play some attractive football, are fast on the counter, and fully deserved their point at Aachen after going 2-0 down. Tonight's opponents have lost their last four on the road and mere survival in this season will probably be a good result for them come the end of the season. Hoffenheim are a little restricted in price and it could be worth backing them to overcome a deficit on the Asians.

Hoffenheim 1 St Pauli 1 - 3 pts

3 pts win ALEMANNIA AACHEN 2.2/1 ( Betfair) v Erzgebirge Aue Bundesliga 2

Aue had a terrific home record in this division last season and have started the season Ok despite looking as though their home stadium is not going to be the fortress of last term. The 3-0 victory over Augsburg looks good on paper but in reality those opponents are struggling at the moment and seem a shadow of the team that almost got into the promotion race during the second half of last season. They entertain Aachen tonight and could struggle to maintain a team who will undoubtedly make a bold effort to return back to the top flight. Aachen threw away a 2-0 lead at home to Hoffenheim last time, but those opponents will take a few big scalps this season, and overall they've been performing well - though do need some improvement on their travels. Their current odds are tempting and they are worth backing for the outright victory here.

Aue 2 Aachen 1 - 3 pts

Thursday, 1 November 2007

3 pts win FC KOLN 11/8 ( William Hill and Betfair) v Osnabruck Bundesliga 2

There are two angles that can be taken into this. The first one is that despite their strength on paper, the FC rarely play two games alike, are not to be trusted, and fine it hard to be motivated unless competing against the big names. Furthermore, it is a minus that they'll be missing the experience of McKenna in the center of defence. The second angle in, and the one I'm choosing to side with is, that the FC have the player power to blow away the likes of tonights opponents. True, Osnabruck have performed with credit ( despite only being a couple of points from the relegation zone) since coming up from Regional North, but that can often be the case with newly promoted teams ( though no doubt Hoffenheim will be a genuine force in this division), and it's likely that Osnabruck will do well to avoid relegation. As said previously, if Cologne fail to gain promotion this season it's going to be failure in this sort match that will have let them down. At present they are a more reliable proposition on their travels, and Daum's men should be supported to come away with all the points in tonights encounter.

Osnabruck 2 FC Koln 1 - 3 pts

Sunday, 28 October 2007

3 pts win ALBERTA'S RUN 7/4 ( Generally available) Christmas Cards from Bonusprint Novices Chase

A fascinating race between two animals who promise to take high order in the novice chase ranks. Tidal Bay was the higher rated over hurdles, but Alberta's is perhaps the more reliable proposition ( seems to do things a bit more easier of the two), has had the benefit of a run over fences where he made a very pleasing impression, and is the more attractively priced of the two.

Lost - 3 pts

3 pts win MONET'S GARDEN 2.2/1 ( Betfair) Bonusprint Old Roan Chase

Even though Kauto Star will perhaps be more forward than connections are making out, this is the best opportunity that Monet's Garden will have of beating him. Nicky Richards sailed majestically around here when winning in April and we can take for granted that he'll be absolutely spot on for this and can take advantage of the 10lb he receives. Confidence is further increased by the weakness of Exotic Dancer in the market, which suggests that the O'Neill runner is going to need this.

Won + 6.3 pts

2 pts win CROCODILE DUNDEE 5.2/2 ( Betfair) Bonusprint Canvas Prints H'cap hdle
1 pt win OLD BENNY 8/1 ( Betfair) Bonusprint Canvas Prints H'cap hdle

It's worth taking a chance with Crocodile Dundee's staminia as he possesses the raw ability to go close here. Lightly raced but talented on the flat, he has shown enough in his few outings over hurdles to suggest that he has a future in this sphere. A strict interpretation of his Musselburgh run suggests that he could be reasonable handicapped here. The winner, Leslingtaylor, now has a mark in the 130's, and Crocodile Dundee should figure today if consenting to settle. Old Benny, who looks a real slogger, is worth back up suppport. His staminia is guaranteed, and although his fitness has to be taken on trust, his present odds on the exchanges more than compensate for the negatives.

Lost - 3 pts
3 pts FC KOLN HT/FT 1.14/1 ( Betfair) v SC Paderborn Bundesliga 2

If the FC fail to return to the top flight it will probably be these type of ' give me ' games that will have let them down. There is a general theory that they bottle when the home crowd get on to them when mistakes are made, and that they are more comfortable on their travels. Nevertheless, they are a level above today's opponents, and buoyed from their excellent Monday evening performance in Borussia Park, they'll set out full of confidence. They'll no doubt start this match strongly, and it's worth taking the HT/FT as opposed to the restricted odds for the outright victory.

FC Koln 2 Paderborn 1 ( 1-0 HT) + 3.3 pts

3 pts win BORUSSIA DORTMUND 4/1 ( Betfair) v Bayern Munich Bundesliga 1

From a value viewpoint BVB are worth chancing. True, they have major problems, and Doll's position appears in different degrees of jeopardy from week to week, but this is the type of encounter where they may be able to nick something with the vast home crowd behind them. Furthermore, Bayern had a tough match in Serbia a couple of days ago and have not had long to readjust for this. There are also doubts over the availability of Toni and the excellent Ribery, and the absence of these will be a boost to BVB despite the strength of the Bayern squad.

BVB 0 Bayern 0 - 3 pts

Saturday, 27 October 2007

3 pts win SCHALKE 04 1.36/1 ( Betfair) v Werder Bremen Bundesliga 1

The SO4 have a good recent record against Bremen and are farly priced to come away with all three points today. They have lacked some their customary flair lately and improvement is required if they are going to be serious title contenders. Today's opponents have coped well without Klose, and some key players that were sidelined have returned to the side. This is the match of the weekend in this league. Slomka has issued a rallying call to the So4, and with the home crowd behind them they appleal at their present odds.

SO4 1 Weder Bremen 1 - 3 pts

3 pts win KARLSRUHE SC 1.96/1 ( Betfair) v Hansa Rostock Bundesliga 1

Hansa's form has improved in recent weeks and perhaps relegation is not the foregone conclusion that it once seemed. Nevertheless, they entertain KSC today and were unable to cope with them when these two sides faced each other in the televised Bundesliga 2 fixture in April. KSC are on a roll at the moment. They've won their last three away matches, and 5 out their last 7 fixtures, taking some notable scalps in the process. They dominated their home fixture against Arminia Bielefeld last weekend but the negativity of their opponents along with some poor finishing prevented them from claiming a victory. They are fairly priced for the outright victory today.

KSC 0 Rostock 0 - 3pts
2 pts win IBN KHALDUN 4/1 ( Generally available) Racing Post Trophy
1 pt win FROZEN FIRE 8/1 ( Betfair) Racing Post Trophy

It may be best to take one of the animals with solid form, and one of the three unexposed contestants. Of the former category Ibn Khaldun has developed into an exciting prospect, pleasing visually in his last couple of races and it's hard to gage the level he's at right now as he's been winning with plenty in hand. Of the unexposed colts, Frozen Fire is attractively priced on the exchanges at the moment. Admittedly, the Ballydoyle juvenile colts have been a little muted so far, but the fact that he is one of two chosen to represent the yard here and is probably the first stable choice, indicates that he's high up the pecking order.

Ibn Khaldun won + 7 pts

2 pts win DABBERS RIDGE 4.1/1 ( Betfair)Unison Trade Union Stakes
1 pt win HUMUNGOUS 9/1 ( 3 firms ) Unison Trade Union Stakes

This is one of those events that may not be as tricky as it first appears. Dabbers Ridge is at home over this trip, is in fairish form at the moment, posseses the ability to win this, and should put up a very bold showing. Humungous comes down in trip here. He's a quirky sort who's hard to win with but has plenty of raw ability and ran well in the Cambridgeshire last time. It's worth taking the chance that the cheekpieces may conjure something out of him today.

Lost - 3 pts

3 pts win ALMAJD 13/8 ( Generally available) Mountgrange Stud Horris Hill Stakes

This colt looked the real deal when making a winning debut in a Newmarket maiden and it appears from the markets that he carries a hell of alot of stable confidence today. His illustrious half brother Alhaarth acted with give, so too have most of the other of the dam's progeny - however not all Marju's do so it's a bit of a guessing game. However, if there is a genuine classic prospect in this field then it's him, and I fancy that he could be a level above these.

Lost - 3 pts

2 pts win DON'T PUSH IT 2/1 ( Generally available) Sporting Index Silver Trophy H'cap Hdle
1 pt win NANGO PARBAT 45/1 ( Betfair)Sporting Index Silver Trophy H'cap Hdle

If Don't Push It had been kept to hurdles after his Haydock victory almost two years ago, it is safe to assume that he would have been fairly successful and probably reached a mark in the 140's, similar to his present chase rating. Fact is, he's racing off 127 today, and despite McCoy choosing to go to Aintree, this is not the sort of event that the yard would use to tune their charge up for his return to fences. We can expect him to be fairly straight here and he must surely take all the beating. Of the longer priced animals, Nango Parbat is worth small support. His inexperienced rider takes 10lb off him, and though his trainer is quoted as saying this is a forerunner to a return to fences and that he might need this, it's likely he'll be fit enough to run OK if reproducing his best form.

Don't Push It won + 3 pts

Thursday, 25 October 2007

3 pts win ALEMANNIA AACHEN 1.56/1 ( Betfair) v TSG Hoffenheim Bundesliga 2

Both of these teams have 15 pts and the importance of this match has been emphasised by Aachen coach Guido Buchwald, as a victory for either team would put them just outside the promotion spots. Hoffenheim have acquitted themselves well since being promoted from Regional South, and are an entertaining side to watch with their attack minded outlook. However, Aachen, are 3w, 2D at Tivoli stadion this season and confidence is increasing over their prospects of bouncing back up to Bundesliga 1. They produced an assured performance in their last home match against a team that is probably the best side in this league. Friday's opponents will be easier to break down than Freiburg, and with almost a full squad available for selection, the they should come away with a victory.

Aachen 2 Hoffenheim 2 - 3 pts

Monday, 22 October 2007

3 pts win FC KOLN 3.2/1 ( Betfair) v Borussia Monchengladbach Bundesliga 2

An absolute cracker in store. A NRW Derby between two sides that have a long established rivalry with one another. At first instance it may appear folly to oppose Gladbach on home turf. They have a terrific recent record in this fixture and are on a roll at the moment, top of the league having won their last five. However, it's not quite as straightforward as it may seem. This FC team seem to excel in the big matches. Remember, they actually knocked the S04 out of the cup last season, and they are also capable of rising to the occasion away from Mungersdorfer. A fine example of that is their victory in Duisburg last season. The home side desperately needed points in their promotion chase while the game was, on paper, a dead match for the FC. Furthermore, their performance away at 1860 Munich this season made you wonder why they have been struggling, so assured they were there. More encouragement comes from the fact that there are doubts over Neuville's fitness in the Gladbach camp. His absence would be a notable minus for the home side. The FC are a standout price on Betfair at the moment and it's worth chancing a maximum on them as they have the ability as a team to prove more than a match for Gladbach and will really be up for this tonight.

Monchengladbach 2 FC Koln 2 - 3 pts

Sunday, 21 October 2007

3 pts SC FREIBURG - 1 Asian H'cap 1.11/1 ( Betfair) v St Pauli Bundesliga 2

Freiburg already look likely to compensate for last seasons disappointment by returning to the top flight. With Pitropia in the team ( he's back today) they are probably the most formidable side in this league and it will be a major surprise if the visitors come away with anything today. Freiburg have won all four of their home fixtures this season - in fact only Hoffenheim have managed to score against them. The best angle to take is to back them to overcome a deficit on the Asians as they should win this comfortably.

Freiburg 2 St Pauli 0 + 3.2 pts

3 pts FSV MAINZ - 0 Asian H'cap 0.92/1 ( Betfair) v S V Wehen Bundesliga 2

Wehen have made a dream start to the season since promotion from the regionals and currently lie third in the table. They'll be hoping to get off to a flying start in their new stadium today but are up against it playing a team close behind them in the table and who are expecting to return straight back to the top flight, and who are going to be prominent in the table throughout the season. They are only 1 from 3 on the road so far this term but they only make a short journey today and they appeal with the DNB proviso as they should come away with something here.

Wehen 1 Mainz 3 + 2.65 pts

3 pts win TSV 1860 MUNICH Evens ( Betfair) v Greuther Furth Bundesliga 2

1860 have made a solid start to the season despite losing the likes of Adler to Nurnberg and Vucicevic to Cologne, plus two players to Wolfsburg. They are looking genuine promotion contenders and Antonio De Salvo is on fire for them at the moment having netted 7 goals already. Furth have started ok but the points collected on the road have come against teams with problems, and they suffered a 3-0 defeat on their last journey in Koblenz. The home side should prove too strong for them today and are fairly priced for the outright victory.

TSV 1860 0 Furth 3 - 3 pts

3 pts win KARLSRUHER SC 0.89/1 ( Betfair) v Arminia Bielefeld Bundesliga 1

Bielefeld have lost their last four and confidence is at rock bottom at the moment and with key players missing today, this is unlikely to be the moment to bounce back. Despite losing their best player Federico to BVB, KSC have adapted well since returning to the top flight. They are on a roll at the moment having won 4 from their last five - their victims including Stuttgart, BVB and SO4, and must be supported to take all three points in this home fixture.

KSC 0 Bielefeld 0 - 3 pts

Saturday, 20 October 2007

3 pts win BAYER LEVERKUSEN 0.93/1 ( Betfair) v Borussia Dortmund Bundesliga 1

Leverkusen are 7 from the last 9 in this fixture and should prove too strong for the visitors today. BVB's hard fought victory over their close neighbours Bochum does not disguise the fact that they are a struggling side which has resulted the inevitable speculation over Doll's position at the helm. Both sides have some players missing, BVB suffering more and they'll have, amongst others, the experienced and influential Christian Worns missing.

Leverkusen 2 BVB 2 - 3 pts
1.5 pts win BOB HALL 5.2/1 ( Betfair) Pyments Quantity Surveyors H'cap Chase
1.5 pts win KNOWHERE 5.8/1 ( Betfair) Pyments Quantity Surveyors H'cap Chase

Bob Hall looks a likely type for this. He is a more reliable proposition than his Aintree conqueror, Private Bee, has proven course form, was progressing nicely towards the end of last season and will progress beyond his current rating this season. Fitness is unlikely to be an issue today.

Knowhere nearly had his big day here last December. He's been a likable type right from the day that he won that Hexham novice hurdle - he had unlimited potential at that time and perhaps in retrospect he's not been as successful as should have been the case. Nevertheless, he is all quality, and with his stable flying could prove a match for the less exposed types in the field.

Knowhere won + 6.9 pts

3 pts win NEW APPROACH 6/4 ( Generally available) Darley Dewhurst Stakes

In a vintage looking renewal this colt looks the real deal and anything around the 6/4 ( with Rio De La Plata in) mark is about correct. Rio De La Plata looks like re opposing but there is no reason why he should turn the Curragh form around, Raven's Pass is surely not as good as he looked at Sandown and there are genuine doubts about him on this easy ground, while the form of Fast Company's Acomb victory is looking a bit iffy, and Mccartney's Champagne Stakes win came in a below average renewal.

won + 4.5pts

2 pts win NOTNOWCATO 3.2/1 ( Betfair)Emirates Airline Champion Stakes
1 pt win MARAAHEL 23/1 ( Betfair) Emirate Airline Champion Stakes

It's folly to discount Notnowcato on account of his run in this race last year. On all known form he is clearly the best horse in this race, will like the ease in the ground; and in a below average renewal will take all the beating if on song. With the Stoute stable still retaining it's form the likelihood is that he'll be spot on here.

Stable companion Maraahel makes most appeal of the longer priced runners. He's disproved the theory that he needs fast ground and on his best form he will not be far away. Admittedly, he's been a little disappointing on his last two starts but his odds are still too big.

Lost - 3 pts

1 pt win SUNLEY PEACE 12/1 ( Ladbrokes and Exchanges)) Totescoop Cesarewitch
1 pt win DR SHARP 13.5/1 ( Betfair)Totescoop Cesarewitch
1 pt win INCHNADAMPH 23/1 ( Betfair) Totescoop Cesarewitch

There's room to take three against the field here. SunleyPeace has gone into many notebooks for this over the past 6 weeks. The Salisbury run two outings ago was highly eye catching with a view to this race and he again ran well last time. He'll be OK in the conditions and should run very well.

Inchnadamph and Dr Sharp were both placed in this event last year and are both set to figure again. The Tim Fitzgerald runner had also been placed the previous year and he'd be half his current odds if in the hands of someone like Tony Martin. Dr Sharp has always promised to win one of these events, looked to be coming back to hand last time and has the services of the confident William Buick.

Lost - 3 pts

2 pts win ADVANCED 6/1 ( Generally Available) Igloos Bentinck Stakes
1 pt win HOH HOH HOH 28/1 ( Betfair) Igloos Bentinck Stakes

Advanced at last is turning into the sort of animal he once promised to be when with Roger Charlton as a juvenile. Conditions are ideal for him and a repeat of his Ayr run will probably be suffice to take this as there are question marks hanging over many of his opponents here.

Hoh Hoh Hoh is worth a small wager at his odds. He probably ran the race of his life at York last Saturday, bowling along in front and looking to have everything held at one stage, and if Fonthill Road hadn't been in the race there would of been less concern about stamina limitations over this course.

Lost - 3pts

Friday, 19 October 2007

3 pts OVER 2.5 Goals 0.79/1 ( Betfair) Hoffenheim v FC Kaiserslautern Bundesliga 2

This is a fascinating encounter and it would have been better having this on TV rather than the yawny Cottbus v Duisburg Bundesliga 1 match later on ! Hoffenheim are now building a 30,000 all seater stadium to replace a ground that originally had a 5,000 capacity. They have spent big by Bundesliga 2 standards, play in the main carefree attacking football, and have big long term ambitions. FCK, as said before, have to throw everything into their games now to try and climb up the league. Their confidence would have been boosted by the first win of the season last time and their fans will expect this to be the start of a good run. This match has goals written all over it and the current 0.79/1 available on Betfair for over 2.5 goals makes alot of appeal.

Hoffenheim 1 FCK 0 - 3 pts

Saturday, 13 October 2007

2 pts win ATLANTIC COAST 2.55/1 ( Betfair) Shepherd Stakes
1 pt win MISSOULA 9.5/1 (Betfair) Shepherd Stakes

This race may not be as tricky as it looks. Gallileo Figaro's absence is slightly concerning, while Mirjan has never won off a mark this high and seems to perform best at Newcastle nowadays. Kayf Aramis has possibilities but it may pay to go with the obvious and support the only three year old in the race in Atlantic Coast. Like many of these stayers he has his quirks but he has won under todays rider, will handle the going, and is able to perform in small fields.

Mark Tompkins runners are always worth a look here, and Missoula likes this track, will handle the ground, and may have some improvement left in her.

Missoula won + 7.2 pts

2pts win MAJOR EAZY 9/2 ( Betfair) Stowe Family Silver Jubilee Rockingham Stakes
1pt win SUDDEN IMPACT 5.6/1 ( Betfair) Stowe Family Silver Jubilee Rockingham Stakes

Another race where there are not as many possibilities as it may first appear. Major Eazy appeared to step up on his previous performances when beating a useful sort at Salisbury last time. 6f with some give appears to be ideal and there is no reason why he won't go very close here.

Sudden Impact stormed home in a soft ground sales race at the Curragh but has since ran below that form on a faster surface at the same venue. That victory was a stone better than anything else she's achieved and is of obvious interest with some ease in the ground today.

Lost - 3pts

2pts win FONTHILL ROAD 6.2/1 ( Betfair) Paddy Power Sprint Trophy
1 pt win RISING SHADOW 17/1 ( Betfair) Paddy Power Sprint Trophy

It's 12 outings and over a year since Fonthill Road's last victory, which is not too alarming given the nature of these events. He does retain all of his ability, has been running well lately, and with conditions ideal he should give a very good account of himself here.

Rising Shadow loves it here, has ideal conditions, and catches the eye amongst the longer priced runners.

Fonthill Road won + 11.8 pts

2 pts win BROOMIELAW 5/2 ( Betfair) Parsonage Hotel stakes
1 pt win FLYING CLARETS 14.5/1 (Betfair) Parsonage Hotel Stakes

A competitive and intersting little race. Broomielaw is hard to put a mark on and could possibly be much better than his current rating. He should go on the ground and is hard to get away from here. Flying Clarets runs well here and is back to the same mark as when runner up in the John Smith's Cup. Conditions are ideal and she looks set for a big run.

Broomielaw NR, Flying Clarets won + 9.4 pts

2 pts win RED GALA 4/1 ( Generally available) Stakes
1 pt win FONT 12.5/1 ( Betfair) Ladbrokes.comStakes

You go into this race confident of finding something to take on Red Gala with but keep getting drawn back to this animal. The form of his visually pleasing victory at Doncaster has been boosted, he'll act in the ground, clearly has more improvement left, and is probably priced just about right.

The other Cheverley Park runner, Font, worth back up support. He has proven big field form, should not mind the ground, and could improve for the step up in trip.

Lost - 3pts

Monday, 8 October 2007

3 pts ALEMANNIA AACHEN - 0 Asian Handicap 0.81/1 ( Betfair) v SC Freiburg Bundesliga 2

The visitors are 5 from 8 this season and are looking likely to make up for last seasons disappointment when only goal difference prevented them from being promoted. However, they have doubts over the fitness of some key players tonight and while it's easy to go overboard on such issues, a fit Jonathan Pitropia, is a crucial element of this Freiburg side. Anyone watching the match against FC Koln could not have failed to be impressed with his performance. He is lightning fast by Bundesliga 2 standards and if he's not on song, that will be a minus for his club. Aachen, obvious promotion candidates themselves, have made an ordinary beginning to the campaign, but their home form is solid and they've only conceded three goals in four games at Stadion Tivoli, and the visitors will find the defence harder to break down than when playing the FC. They were not disgraced away at the flying Monchengladbach last time, and are fancied to sneak this tonight. They are worth supporting on the Asians with the DNB proviso.

Aachen 2 Freiburg 0 + 2.3 pts

Sunday, 7 October 2007

2 pts win ZAMBEZI SUN 5.8/1 ( Betfair) Prix De L'Arc Triomphe
1 pt win SOLDIER OF FORTUNE 4.2/1 ( Betfair) Prix De L' Arc Triomphe

First impression in the aftermath of the Prix Niel was that if Zambezi Sun was clearly short of peak then so to was Soldier Of Fortune. That argument seems to swing on on how much the runner up Sagara has progressed since earlier in the season, as that animal had finished over five lengths behind Zambezi Sun in the Grand Prix de Paris. Both Zambezi Sun and Soldier Of Fortune have obviously strong claims and from a value perspective it may pay to lean towards the view that the Pascal Bary animal ran a few lengths below his best in the Niel and have the larger bet on him. With three live dangers, Authorized makes no appeal at his odds, and Dylan Thomas performance is going to be dictated by the underfoot conditions.

Lost - 3 pts
3 pts win FC KAISERSLAUTERN -0.5 & - 1 Asian Handicap 0.95/1 ( Betfair) v Osnabruck Bundesliga 2

FCK are an interesting team to follow at the moment. They've had the start from hell and need a successsion of 3 pointers to climb up the table. They've no choice but to throw everything into their games - which they did away to Offenbach last Monday, a match that was far more eventful than the 0-0 scoreline suggests. FCK were on top towards the end and a similar effort here infront of their high volume home support will be suffice to give them there first victory of the season.

FCK 3 Osnabruck 0 +2.7 pts

3 pts NURNBERG + 1.5 Asian Handicap Evens ( obtained on Betfair by laying Bayern - 1.5) v Bayern Munich Bundesliga 1

Bayern have won this home fixture by two or more goals on three of the last six occasions. Nurnberg prop up the table but there are signs that they are beginning to find their feet, and in what is traditionally a hotly contested Bavarian Derby, I'll follow the advice of some astute judges from that part of the world on the German soccer forums and back the visitors with the assistance of the asians.

Bayern 3 Nurnberg 0 - 3 pts

Saturday, 6 October 2007

3 pts win VfB STUTTGART 0.84/1 ( Betfair) v Hannover Bundesliga 1

Despite some absentees in the side, last seasons champions are fairly priced to make it 4 from 5 at home this season. Last seasons success was generally attributed to the failings of Bayern, S04 and Bremen, and while they are realistically only going to be a top six team this term, they should prove too strong for their opponents today in a fixture which they have a good record.

Stuttgart 0 Hannover 2 - 3pts

3 pts win VfL WOLFSBURG 0.75/1 ( Betfair) v Hansa Rostock Bundesliga 1

Hansa look likely to improve on their woeful record when last in Bundesliga 1. After a dull start they've won their last 3 matches, but will surely see that run ended when they travel to the Volkswagenarena today. Wolfsburg spent freely throughout the close season, and there now seem to be signs that the team that is now of Felix Magath's building, is starting to find it's feet. They've performed well in the face of stiff tasks in their last two games and are confidently expected to win at home for the first time this season.

Wolfsburg 1 Rostock 0 + 2.1 pts
2 pts win JOFFE'S RUN 2.9/1 (Betfair) Finforrest Oh So Sharp Stakes
1 pt win ROSA GRACE 7/1 ( Betfair, Ladbrokes, Sporting Bet) Finforrest Oh So Sharp Stakes

On achievement so far, this is only an average field for this event, and it could pay to take the approach of selecting the two fillies who are hardest to guage and could turn out to be anything.

The form of Joffe's Run Salisbury race is beginning to work out respectably. She won in nice style that day and is the most interesting runner in this race. Rosa Grace is unbeaten in two starts. Rae Guest has handled high class fillies before, and this one appears to be held in high regard.

Lost - 3pts

2 pts win TOBOSA 4.1/1 ( Betfair) Countrywide Steel and Tubes Joel Stakes
1 pt win HEAVEN SENT 5.8/1 ( Betfair), 6/1 ( Ladbrokes) Countrywide Steel and Tubes Joel Stakes

Tobosa promised to be a G1 performer earlier in the season but was found out when tried in that grade in France - albeit on ground not ideal for him. He has since shown himself to be as good as ever, has ideal conditions today, and is sure to figure prominently here.

Heaven Sent is developing a respectable profile and like most of the Cheverley Park fillies there will be plent of improvement left in her. However, at this stage of her career she dosen't have too much to find to win this ( particularly if Creachadoir fails to run to form), and is worth a small investment.

Lost - 3pts

3 pts win ECHELON 2.15/1 ( Betfair) Kingdom of Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes

Echelon ends her career in the same race that her half sister Chic bowed out. She's already surpassed the achievements of her elder relative by winning a G1, comes into this in the form of her life, has ideal conditions, and must take all of the beating.

Lost - 3pts

2 pts win MONTE ALTO 6.8/1 ( Betfair) , 7/1 ( Ladbrokes)Totesport Cambridgeshire
1 pt win GREEK WELL 14/1 ( Betfair, Ladbrokes VC Bet) Totesport Cambridgeshire

Monte Alto created a fine visual impresssion when winning at Newbury last time. Allied to the fact that the form appears stonewall solid in the context of this race, and to the doubts expressed over the suitability of conditions by the connections of Pipedreamer ; then he is the one to be on here.

After much tampering, the Stoute yard seem to have found the key to Greek Well, and while he has to turn the Newbury form around with Monte Alto here, he is worth support at his present odds as it just could be that a fast run 9f could bring about further improvement still.

Lost - 3pts

2 pts win MARCHAND D'OR 6.2/2 ( Betfair) Prix De La Foret
1 pt win TOYLSOME 199/1 ( Betfair) Prix De La Foret

A proven G1 performer, Marchand D'Or has run three fine races in succession, and on home soil he will go close to bagging his third G1 victory. It is very hard not to envisage him being in the mix of this at the finish.

Although now an eight year old, Toylsome probably produced a career best when taking a listed event by six lengths at Cologne two weeks ago. Pasquier teams up with him again today and it is worth noting that he wasen't entirely disgraced when acting as a pacemaker for Manduro in this grade back in August. Admittedly, he has plenty to find but his present odds on the exchanges are far too big and he's worth a dreamy, speculative punt.

Toylsome won ( GTF in there ! ) + 189 pts

Friday, 5 October 2007

3 pts Over 2.5 Goals 0.75/1 ( Betfair) FC Koln v Kickers Offenbach Bundesliga 2

This fixture finished 2-2 last season and there will surely be plenty of goals in this. The FC will no doubt start strongly, eager to make up for their last two slip ups. However, apart from the odd, controlled performance ( such as on their visit to 1860 Munich), they are incredibly vulnerable at the back. Offenbach are playing well at the moment and the 0-0 scoreline versus FCK on Monday was a misleading scoreline as there were plenty of opportunities for both sides, and it could easily have produced 3 or 4 goals. This should be an entertaining affair and the price on the overs is about right.

FC Koln 4 Offenbach 1 + 2.1 pts

3 pts VfL BOCHUM + 0.5 Asian handicap 1.1/1 ( Betfair) v Borussia Dortmund Bundesliga 1

BVB are back in turmoil again, losing their last three after a pleasing early season run which culminated in an impressive 3-0 victory over Werder Bremen. They have six or seven first team regulars missing for this home fixture tonight - their midweek friendly match in Poland putting another two players in the easy list. Bochum, with no major staffing problems are capable of coming away with something here in what will be a hard fought derby.

BVB 2 Bochum 1 - 3 pts

Monday, 1 October 2007

1.5 pts win FC KAISERSLAUTERN 2.45/1 ( Betfair) v Kickers Offenbach, & 1.5pts OVER 2.5 goals, 1.02/1 ( Betfair) Bundesliga 2

Seen as obvious promotion candidates at the beginning of the year, the once mighty FCK have picked up only 3 pts from their first seven games and may have blown their chance to get themselves into contention for a Bundesliga 1 place. To put their task into perspective, they are 14 pts adrift of Monchengladbach and Freiburg, two clubs who are going to be right up there throughout the season. Needless to say a cautious approach is now out of the window and there should be some exciting and high scoring games involving FCK this season. They travel to Offenbach for this encounter, facing a home side who have won their three home games this season. The odds on the visitors are too high to ignore, and stakes should be split on an FCK victory and over 2.5's.

FCK 0 Offenbach 0 - 3pts

Sunday, 30 September 2007

2 pts win LADIES BEST 4/1 ( Generally available) Marchpole Handicap
1 pt win LAKE POET 16/1 ( Generally available)Marchpole Handicap

Ladies Best has been performing consistently well in some hot affairs throughout the season and this looks ideal for her to open her account for the season. She was staying on her only try over this trip at Royal Ascot on fast ground, and it could be that 12f on an easy surface which probably favours her, will prove to be her optimum conditions. Needless to say that she has very strong credentials for this. Lake Poet is worth support at his price. He has the form in the book to go close and is worth chancing that he will run to his best in conditions that will not hinder him.

Lost - 3 pts

2 pts win ASK 2.95/1 ( Betfair) Grosvenor Cumberland Lodge Stakes
1 pt win CLASSIC PUNCH 33/1 ( Betfair) Grosvenor Cumberland Lodge Stakes

Honolulu has a pacemaker in but has had a couple of really hard races and is worth taking on here. Ask has been on the easy list since looking a much improved performer at Chester. There's a good chance he'll be spot on, and as he's fresher than most of these opponents he makes alot of appeal here. Classic Punch disappointed last time but does go on this ground, has further improvement in him, and can't be resisted at his current odds.

Ask won + 4.8 pts

2 pts win BALTHAZAAR'S GIFT 11/4 ( Generally available) John Guest Diadem Stakes
1 pt win ZIDANE 5.2/1 ( Betfair) John Guest Diadem Stakes

A big field, 6f at Ascot, and give in the ground are ideal for the Cumani horse here and he must be supported in a race where it's easy to find plenty of holes in his opponents credentials ( there's now been a few withdrawals). Zidane is the one for back up support, He's finally on verge of progressing to the level of performance that his pedigree suggested, and the conditions are ideal for him to go close here.

Lost - 3 pts
2 pts win FC KOLN 1.1/1 ( Paddy Power) v SV Wehen Bundesliga 2

The theory that the FC stutter at home due to the expectation of their large support was further endorsed on Wednesday evening when they lost 3-1 to Freiburg after going ahead. They were booed off the field. Nevertheless, there were crucial moments that changed the course of the match - not least the wrongly disallowed goal that would have taken the score to 2-2, and as the FC are a streak team, who knows what would have happened. Though their defence looked decidedly shaky each time their opponents advanced, Freiburg, after losing a couple of key players in the summer, are now looking strong promotion candidates again, and the FC, who have been pleasing away from home, can beat todays opponents. Wehen have performed well since being promoted from the regionals, though there last two victories have all come against sides with serious problems in FCK and Jena. Cologne do look a formidable force on their travels and can gain all three points here.

SV Wehen 4 FC Koln 3 - 2 pts

3 pts OVER 2.5 Goals 0.74/1 ( Betfair) Hoffenheim v FSV Mainz Bundesliga 2

With money ploughed into a new stadium and new players, the powers behind Hoffenheim are serious about making them a Bundesliga 1 side. They are entertaining to watch, playing plenty of carefree, attacking football, resulting in 5 of their 7 games finishing in over 2.5's. Mainz, with clearly strong credentials for returning to the top flight, have likewise been involved in a similar ratio of overs, and in what promises to be an entertaining encounter, the over 2.5 can be supported with confidence.

Hoffenheim 1 Mainz 0 - 3pts

Saturday, 29 September 2007

3 pts HAMBURG SV - 0.5 & -1 0.95/1( Betfair) Asian Handicap v VfL Wolfsburg Bundesliga 1

HSV have made a solid start to the new season, are firing on all cylinders at present and are worth support on the asians to outpoint the visitors here. They were value for far more than the 1-0 victory against Nurnberg, and their 3-0 win over BVB was more of a true reflection of the present strength of the side. Wolfsburg, with a new look squad, and Felix Magath at the helm, are improved from the side that got involved in a relegation fight in the spring but have a big task on their hands to come away with anything today.

HSV 2 Wolfsburg 2 - 3pts
1pt win IRON MAN 8.6/1 ( Betfair) Bluesqcasino Chase
1 pt win ALWAYS WAINING 12.5/1 ( Betfair) Bluesqcasino Chase
1 pt win MISTER FLINT 17.5/1 ( Betfair) Bluesqcasino Chase

There's room to take three against the field here. On a course that brings out the best in him, the likeable Iron Man must enter the equation and will surely be thereabouts. Stable companion Always Waining has improved around two stone in the past 12 months and there was no sign of the upward curve leveling when he put up a lifetime best last time. Admittedly, another step up in performance is required here, but his current price makes him an attractive proposition. Mister Flint ran well last time for the 7lb claimer who is again on board today, and makes more appeal at his odds than his stable companion.

Iron Man won + 6.3 pts

1.5 pts win PIGEON ISLAND 5/1 ( Generally available) Bluesquare Hurdle
1.5 pts win LESLINGTAYLOR 5/1 ( Ladbrokes) Bluesquare Hurdle

The two presently heading the market have solid claims here. As is customary for this time of the year, the Twiston-Davies horses are running out of their skin and Pigeon Island should go close to to defying his 6lb penalty, despite this being a far more competitive event. He's on a roll at the moment and there is surely more to come. Leslingtaylor has proven he can win in competitive handicap company and it will be interesting to see how he progresses this season. Fully tuned up from the flat he must be involved here.

Pigeon Island won + 6 pts

2 pts win EMMROOZ 4.8/1 ( Betfair) Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes
1 pt win CAMPANOLOGIST 14.5/1 ( Betfair) Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes

Most of the good Red Ransom's are able to handle an easy surface, and with the Godolphin horses performing well at the moment, Emmrooz looks a likely type here. He was visually pleasing when winning at Goodwood last time and is clearly an interesting long term prospect.
After an eyecatching winning debut, performed OK'ish in the Acomb prior to winning a competitive conditions race at Haydock last time. he catches the eye at his current odds.

Lost - 3 pts

2 pts win CESARE 9/1 ( Generally available) Queen Elizabeth 11 Stakes
1 pt win DUKE OF MARMALADE 8.6/1 ( Betfair) Queen Elizabeth 11 Stakes

Cesare will rarely have a better opportunity of hitting the big time. Excellent Art could be vulnerable if this is a tactical affair - there is also a possibility that the combination of the trip and ground may test his staminia. Darjina and Ramonti would ideally like better ground - and in the case of the former Soumillon does not inspire confidence away from his back yard.

Cesare does not have too much to find, is in the form of his life, and the conditions will not curb him. Duke of Marmalade is worth back up support. He has been running consistently well in the top grade, appeals as the type who has more to come, and if he adapts to the ground he will not be far away.

Lost - 3 pts

Monday, 17 September 2007

2 pts win ERZGEBIRGE AUE 2/1 ( Betfair) v Borussia Monchengladbach Bundesliga 2

Aue are a painfully difficult team to beat at home and are quite attractively priced to defeat a team that, although strong on paper for this division, have a poor away record in recent times. BMG looked at one stage as though they would impose a heavy defeat on Osnabruck in their last home game. Osnababruck defended appallingly in the first half and the opening goal was scored after three BMG players found themselves onside with only the goalkeeper ahead of them. However, anyone viewing the game cannot of been impressed with the way BMG played in the second half. The defence looked increasingly shakey with each Osnabruck attack, and Aue, who miraculously managed a rare away win last time, will fancy their chances of claiming all three points this evening.

Aue 2 M'Gladbach 3 - 2pts

Sunday, 16 September 2007

3 pts win FC KOLN Evens ( Betfair) v Greuther Furth Bundesliga 2

Furth won this fixture 2-0 in April and make the long journey to Cologne in good heart, having won their last three matches; their victims including the now title favourites, Mainz, and Kaiserslautern. However, anyone who watched the performance of the FC away at 1860 Munich could not have failed to be impressed with the way they performed. Daum's team are now a level above the blundering, out of sync outfit they so often looked last season and if they are to fulfill expectations by gaining promotion back to Bundesliga 1 they cannot afford to drop points in these sort of fixtures. Even without the help of the hard working Serbian Vucicevic today, the FC are confidently expected to get the job done and are worth maximum stakes.

FC Koln 0 Furth 0 - 3pts

Saturday, 15 September 2007

2pts win HAMBURG SV 6/4 ( Generally available) v Eintracht Frankfurt Bundesliga 1

HSV are in the best shape they've been in the last year and are playing with a great deal of spirit at the moment. They dominated most of their home tie against Bayern, and did not drop their heads when going a goal down. Their equaliser was much deserved and considering they'll have Van der Vaart and Kompany back today for their trip to Frankfurt, they have an outstanding chance of gaining all three points here. The home side have made a fairish start to the campaign, but have overall lower expectations at present and will struggle to contain HSV today.

HSV 1 Frankfurt 2 - 2 pts
2 pts win TAJDEEF 5.6/1 ( Betfair) Urban Champagne Stakes
1 pt win ALEXANDER CASTLE 34/1 ( Betfair)Urban Champagne stakes

Tajdeef created a fine impression when making a winning debut and is clearly held in the highest regard by connections. He would have been an interesting runner in the Acomb but was pulled out at the last moment, and it would seem that he needs a fast surface which he'll have today. Admittedly, the form of the Newbury race has not been advertised but he could do no more than win in the manner that he did and he can advertise his 2,000 GNS claims here.

Kevin Ryan was adamant at the start of the year that he had his best team of juveniles ever. In context of that statement they have been a shade disappointing. However, Alexander Castle pleased visually when winning an albeit weakish Newcastle maiden. He could be anything and is worth support at his odds.

Lost - 3 pts

2 pts win BUACHAILL DONNA 9.5/1 ( Betfair) Ladbroke Portland H'cap
1 pt win GIFT HORSE Ladbroke 7/1 ( Betfair) Portland H'cap

Even considering the nature of this event, those near the front end of the market have solid claims here and it's hard to get away from the two Nicholl's runners. Buachaill Donna appealed strongly as one who would pay to follow blindly at the beginning of the season. He finally came good at Musselburgh last time, probably putting up a career best, and looks as if there is plenty more to come, and can reverse York form with River Falcon on this quicker surface. He looks sure to figure in the shake up. Gift Horse looked likely to make up into a quality performer at one stage in his career, but hasen't won since his Stewards Cup victory over two years ago. However, from a handicapping viewpoint he is on a winning mark, ran a highly encouraging race last time, and is worth back up support.

Lost - 3 pts

2 pts win SHMOOKH 7/2 ( Generally available) Guido's Starlit Stakes
1 pt win GRANTLEY ADAMS 14/1 ( Ladbrokes) Guido's Starlit Stakes

Shmookh travels like a class performer in his races, is able to produce a finishing kick over this trip, and is a likely type to make into a class sprinter next season. Obviously, if that is the case then he will take alot of beating here and is selected with a degree of confidence.

It's hard to resist a smaller stake on Grantley Adams at his present odds. He's ran well here in the past, can operate in single figure fields, and has looked as good as ever this season.

Lost - 3 pts

Friday, 14 September 2007

2 pts UNDER 2.5 Goals 1.24/1 ( Betfair) Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen Bundesliga 1

Although ten of the last eighteen encounters between these teams have ended in over 2.5 ( five from nine with BVB at home), the bet that most appeals in this tricky encounter is the under. Both teams have key players missing, and BVB's two recent victories have come against sides that are going to be involved in the relegation struggle. Going into this they'll probably be satisfied to come away from this with a point. Werder will have one eye on their high profile European match coming up in a few days, and the 1.24/1 for under 2.5 currently available on Betfair is worth taking.

BVB 3 W. Bremen 0 - 2pts

Thursday, 13 September 2007

2 pts win CAPTAIN GERRARD 4.4/1 ( Betfair) Polypipe Flying Childer Stakes
1 pt win PROUD LINUS 25/1 ( Betfair) Polypipe Flying Childer Stakes

The Molecomb was a level above what it normally is this year with the form already being famously advertised by Kingsgate Native. The winner of the race, Fleeting Spirit renews rivalry with the third home, Captain Gerrard. The Noseda filly has gone on to run well in the Lowther, giving the impression that a return to this trip would be ideal. Captain Gerrard also ran at the York Ebor meeting, creating a fine visual impression when taking the Roses Stakes. He seemed to have improved from Goodwood and has possibilities of reversing the Goodwood form. At his price, he must be supported as he is certain to give a very good showing here.

Proud Linus made his debut in the York race. Starting at 100/1 he ran a blinder, is clearly highly thought of, and is probably not altogether out of his place in this field. Peslier is an interesting booking and he is worth small support at his present odds on the exchanges.

Captain Gerrard Lost, Proud Linus NR - 2 pts

Wednesday, 12 September 2007

1.5 pts win HI CALYPSO 5.8/1 ( Betfair) Goffs Park Hill Stakes
1.5 pts win WANNABE POSH 11/1 ( Betfair) Goffs Park Hill Stakes

A decent renewal of this event. Turbo Linn and All My Loving would ideally like the ground a shade easier. Synopsis is an interesting contender from the Fabre yard, but the two of real interest here are Hi Calypso and Wannabe Posh, who filled the first two places home in a Goodwood G3 last month. Wannabe Posh has since gone and taken the Galtres , where she was followed home by Brisk Breeze, who finished fourth in the Goodwood event, the form of that race now having a stonewall reliable look about it. Both Hi Calypso and Wannabe Posh are proven over the trip and ground, should give good accounts of themselves. The Stoute horse is improving fast but there's the concern that she may get herself outpaced if the race becomes tactical, thus split stakes are probably the best option.

Hi Calypso won + 6.9 pts

Tuesday, 11 September 2007

2 pts win FAIRMILE 5/1 ( Betfair) Broncroft H'cap
1 pt win STAR OF LIGHT 13/1 ( Betfair) Broncroft H'cap

On a tricky card this race appeals strongly as one to get involved in. Admittedly, Red Gala could prove to be head and shoulders above these but he makes the market and is worth taking on his price as on what he's achieved so far there are plenty of dangers here.

Fairmilie, like the favourite, returns from a lay off. The ability of the top handlers to produce their horses fully fit after a lay off is often overstated - but here the absence of the Godolphin animal, who raced in Dubai during the winter is less of a concern than that of the favourite, and we can be pretty sure that Red Gala would have encountered a pretty serious setback in the spring to keep him off for so long. And if he is found wanting here then Fairmilie, a quality handicapper with a finishing kick, will probably be the one to take advantage. Of the longer priced runners, Star Of Light is worth some support. He still retains most of his ability, is in fair heart at the moment, and it will only take a couple of others to run below form for him to be bang in there with a major chance.

Lost - 3pts